Saturday, January23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pole Ojea, PR

Version 3.4
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 5:41PM Saturday January 23, 2021 10:53 AM CST (16:53 UTC) Moonrise 3:18PMMoonset 12:33AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pole Ojea, PR
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location: -39.86, -75.19     debug

Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service San Juan PR 1123 AM AST Sat Jan 23 2021

UPDATE. The morning sounding came in with a little less moisture than the previous soundings, but the cap is now a little stronger with the top of the inversion a little lower. This should limit shower activity over the west and interior of Puerto Rico. Nevertheless a few showers did form this morning over northeast Puerto Rico and over the local waters south of Saint Croix. The GFS shows a reduction in moisture after this afternoon that will last through Monday and this should hold. Minor changes to the POPs and weather grids with the updated package.

AVIATION. VFR conds to predominate at all TAF sites with a slight chance of MVFR CIGs at TJMZ/TNCM/TKPK as minor showers pass through the Leeward Islands and/or form in wrn PR btwn 23/18-22Z. Sfc winds ENE 10-15 kt with sea breeze influences, bcmg less than 10 kt overnight in land breezes. Maximum winds NW 40-48 kt btwn FL435-470.

MARINE. Seas reached a maximum overnight and are now subsiding very slowly. Buoy 41043 was running 6-7 feet this morning, while buoy 41053 is between 4-5 feet. Sheltered buoys are less than 4 feet. The next event will approach 7 foot seas on Monday night in the outer Atlantic waters. Next Saturday, models are showing seas higher than 10 feet entering the area from the north northwest.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 701 AM AST Sat Jan 23 2021/

SYNOPSIS . Mainly fair weather conditions with limited shower activity expected during the next few days. The remnants of a weak cold front are forecast to linger across the area by midweek, followed by the remnants of yet another, but stronger frontal boundary by the end of the workweek into the weekend. Winds will remain light to moderate from the east to northeast. Choppy marine conditions along with a moderate to high risk of rip currents will continue today.

SHORT TERM . Today through Monday .

There is a weak area of high pressure at the surface over the Bahamas, while a SFC low pressure is present over the Central Atlantic. This is causing relatively light easterly winds across the local area. By Monday, a stronger SFC high pressure will be present across the southwestern Atlantic, causing stronger and northeasterly winds across the local islands. Stable atmosphere is observed with the mid and upper levels having zonal flow over the local area as a weak ridge moves into the local area by Monday. According to the forecast soundings, near to below normal moisture is expected over the local area for the next few days, with the limited moisture available mainly being in the lower levels. This combination of patterns is causing mainly fair weather over Puerto Rico and the USVI, with only isolated light showers occurring over the local waters, mainly during the night and early morning hours. That said, due to local effects and diurnal heating, scattered showers are forecast across central to western PR this afternoon and on Monday afternoon, but the air might be too dry for scattered showers on Sunday. The daytime temps are expected to be near normal for the next few days, with the lower elevations observing temps in the low to mid 80s, while the higher elevations will be in the mid 70s to low 80s.

LONG TERM . Tuesday through Saturday

Model guidance now suggests a rather moist weather pattern during the long-term forecast period, particularly by the end of the workweek into the weekend. First, a surface high pressure will push the remnants of an old frontal boundary into the northeastern Caribbean on Tuesday. As the aforementioned high moves away into the north central Atlantic and winds turn from the east to southeast, these remnants will are forecast to linger across the region through Friday, generating periods of increased cloudiness and isolated to scattered shower activity from time-to-time. This moisture will then combined with the remnants of yet another frontal boundary by Friday, which is expected to hold over the region through the weekend. In the meantime, a deep polar trough will extend across the northeastern Caribbean, with its axis expected to cross the area on Saturday. This feature will provide the necessary forcing to support enhanced shower activity with the weakening of the trade wind cap, convergence aloft, and deeper available moisture with model-estimated PW values soaring to 1.75 inches by Saturday morning. Although it is too soon to determine potential impacts and there is low confidence in the evolution and intensity of these features, if this forecast materializes, we could have the first rain event of the year.

AVIATION . VFR conditions expected across the local terminals for the next 24 hours. Brief ISOL -SHRA will continue over the local flying area this morning, which could cause VCSH but it would be light and brief and not expected to cause hazardous conditions. VCSH possible at TJPS and TJSJ after 23/18Z as SCT SHRA develop over portions of PR. Light and VRB winds will be observed until around 23/12Z, but East winds and sea breeze variations at around 10 KT are expected thereafter until around 23/22Z. FEW to SCT SKY expected today.

MARINE . Light to moderate winds at 5-15 knots are expected across the local waters during the next few days. A small northerly swell will continue to invade the Atlantic waters today, creating choppy seas. As a result, small craft operators are urged to exercise caution across these waters. Elsewhere, tranquil marine conditions with seas up to 5 feet will prevail. Thereafter, tranquil marine conditions are expected, but yet another swell is expected to generate choppy to hazardous seas by early next week. There is a high risk of rip currents for beaches along the north coast of Puerto Rico through this afternoon. The risk will lower to moderate tonight, but it is forecast to elevate to high once again by Monday night.

FIRE WEATHER . Although KBDI has reached fire danger thresholds, with a recent observation of 553 for Camp Santiago, and significant wetting rains are not anticipated, winds are expected to remain light enough and below 15 mph. Therefore, a low fire danger threat is expected for the southern coastal plains of Puerto Rico today. Nevertheless, further deterioration of soils and fuel moisture is expected. Note that once winds increase and drier air moves in, an elevated to critical fire danger threat can be expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 84 74 84 73 / 20 10 20 20 STT 83 72 84 73 / 20 20 20 30

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity-Southeast.

VI . None. AM . None.


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