Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 5:29AM||Sunset 5:56PM||Friday August 23, 2019 4:03 PM CST (22:03 UTC)||Moonrise 12:24AM||Moonset 10:53AM||Illumination 41%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pole Ojea, PRHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxca62 tjsj 231754|
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
154 pm ast Fri aug 23 2019
Synopsis Lingering moisture trailing the departed tropical
wave will continue to aid in the development of showers and
possibly isolated thunderstorms mainly across the northwest
quadrant of puerto rico and downwind from the u.S. Virgin islands
and EL yunque during the rest of the afternoon. Mid to upper level
ridge pattern will build and hold across the region through most
of the weekend. A drier and more stable air will filter in across
the region in association with an extensive saharan air layer over
the weekend. The highest concentration of the suspended saharan
dust particulates is forecast Sunday through Monday of next week.
Short term Rest of today through Sunday...
overall drier airmass is expected beginning tonight with skies
becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy and limited shower activity.
However, the prevailing east to southeast trades will transport
occasional patches of moisture across the region from time to
time. This will result in periods of passing showers over portions
of the u.S. Virgin islands and mainly the north and east sections
of puerto rico during the overnight and early morning hours. Recent
satellite imagery satellite imagery as well as model guidance both
suggest a slot of drier air is to move westward and spread across
the region accompanying the aforementioned saharan air layer.
Another weak easterly wave and moisture surge will bring a swath
of additional moisture brief gusty winds across the region late
Saturday through early Sunday in advance of the saharan air layer.
Therefore this added moisture will promote locally induced showers
and thunderstorms particularly during the afternoon hours and over
parts of the central interior and west to north west sections of
puerto rico and downwind of the u.S.Virgin islands. Thereafter,
and the rest of Sunday through Monday,a rapid drying trend is
forecast as a dense saharan air mass is forecast to arrive and
persist through the early part of the upcoming work week.
Long term Monday through Friday...
on Monday, the very dry and extensive saharan air mass will hold
across the region resulting in hazy skies and limited daytime
convection through at least Tuesday. This stable air mass along
with overall subsidence aloft will inhibit significant convective
development during the afternoons through the early part of the
period. However, isolated to scattered afternoon showers are
possible each day as a result of diurnal and local effects. The
strongest shower activity and heaviest rainfall are forecast to
develop over the interior and western areas of puerto rico with
only isolated showers in and around the u.S. Virgin islands.
Additionally, isolated afternoon thunderstorms can not be ruled
out across parts of the west interior sections of areas of puerto
By Tuesday and Wednesday, model guidance continues to suggest the
low level high pressure ridge is to sink southwards across the
region and induce a fairly tight pressure gradient and better
moisture convergence. This will allow better pooling of tropical
moisture and result in a return of the deep tropical moisture and
diminishing a saharan air layer over the region. The additional
tropical moisture will favor better chance for the development of
showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoons mid week
especially over the central interior and south of the cordillera
By Thursday and Friday, an active tropical wave is expected enter
and move across the eastern caribbean. Based on the latest model
guidance, this feature along with better upper level support will
may support a better chance for numerous to widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms. However because of the inconsistencies in
the models as to exactly where this feature may pass confidence
in the amount of rainfall across the region is still low at least
for the next few days. We will however continue to monitor this
feature and see how it unfolds over the next few days. Regardless
, there is better potential for a wetter pattern during the latter
part of the period.
Aviation MainlyVFR conditions are expected to persist through
the forecast period. Vcts are expected for tjmz tjbq and vcsh are
expected for tjsj tist tkpk. The latest GFS forecast shows winds at
fl050 coming out of the east southeast at 10 to 20 knots.
Marine Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected
across the local waters during the period. Therefore, small craft
operators are urged to exercise caution especially over the
offshore waters and local passages.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents for some of the north,
east and and southern beaches during the period.
Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 78 90 79 90 50 50 50 20
stt 80 88 80 89 50 40 40 20
Sju watches warnings advisories
Short term... Erg
long term... .Ram
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