Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 6:46 PM Moonrise 1:05 AM   Moonset 12:28 PM

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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 900 Pm Ast Wed May 1 2024
Rest of tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Numerous showers. Isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms.Thursday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Numerous showers with isolated Thunderstorms.Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms.Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers.Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms through the day. Scattered showers.Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers.Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers.

AMZ700 900 Pm Ast Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters - . A surface high pressure extending from the western to central atlantic will maintain moderate to locally fresh winds. Combined with a fading northeasterly swell, these conditions will generate hazardous seas for small craft operators through tonight. Although conditions will gradually improve from Thursday onward, an induced surface trough will yield lighter east to east-southeast winds and a wet and unstable weather pattern through the weekend.

FXCA62 TJSJ 012107 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 507 PM AST Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS

Unstable conditions and increasing moisture levels will likely persist during the rest of the workweek into the upcoming weekend, as a mid to upper level trough lingers over the western Atlantic and moisture from the Caribbean is steered by east to southeast winds into the area. These conditions will maintain excessive rainfall and lightning hazard risk at elevated levels.
Hazardous marine and life- threatening surf zone conditions will continue through at least Thursday.



SHORT TERM
Tonight through Friday...

Variable to showery pattern prevailed across the islands today, easterly winds veered to become more southeasterly with higher gusts up to the low to mid 20s across several coastal areas. Areas with higher accumulations of up to 1-3 inches focused across northeastern and northwestern Puerto Rico, as well as the San Juan metropolitan area. Wet and unstable weather conditions are forecast through the short term period. This pattern will result from an upper- level trough approaching from the west and an induced surface trough developing north of the islands. Up to above normal, above 2 inches, of Precipitable Water (PWAT) are present across the islands. Up to above normal PWAT is expected through the short term period. Steering winds will continue to gradually veer and become more southeast, then becoming light and more south to south- southwest Thursday and Friday. Highs were in the mid to upper 80s across lower elevations of the islands (with some sensors recording 90 degrees to the 70s across higher elevations of Puerto Rico. Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 70s across lower elevations of the islands to the mid 60s across higher elevations of Puerto Rico.

A Hydrologic Outlook (ESFSJU & ESFSPN) was issued this morning as the above mentioned deep moisture and unstable conditions, along with lighter winds, will promote shower and thunderstorm activity across the region during the next several days, particularly on Friday and into the long term period (the upcoming weekend). The latest guidance suggests that the most likely time period for the heaviest rainfall activity is Friday afternoon into the long term period (Saturday). Soils are already saturated therefore only brief periods of heavy showers or persistent light rain could still promote urban and small stream flooding, localized life threatening flash flooding, mudslides and river rises. The areas forecasted to receive the highest rainfall accumulations are south, southeast and east sections of Puerto Rico, as well as Vieques, Culebra and the US Virgin Islands. Areas of the interior and western half of Puerto Rico could experience brief periods of heavy showers. Please stay tuned for future updates, including flood related products. A Flash Flood Watch will likely be issued tomorrow.

LONG TERM
Saturday through Tuesday...

From previous discussion issued at 516 AM AST Wed May 1 2024

The long-term period continues to lean towards a wet and unstable weather pattern across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, this weather pattern should prevail as a surface trough and a perturbation over the northeastern Caribbean merge across the forecast area, allowing rainfall activity to be the dominant feature throughout the long- term period. On Saturday, the upper level, yet maxima, should remain to the north of the area. Nonetheless, winds around 60 knots will still reach the region. At this time, models suggest Saturday as the wettest and most unstable day of the period. The Precipitable Water (PW) models show values above two standard deviations by the early part of the weekend. The 500 mb temperatures also suggest values around -8 degrees Celsius on Saturday, meaning that there is potential for some isolated thunderstorm activity across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Despite the fact that Saturday looks like the most unstable day, we can not rule out rainy days for the rest of the period. The latest model guidance suggests enough moisture extending across all levels of the atmosphere through Tuesday, meaning that rainy days are ahead. This increase in moisture content is due to a broad patch of moisture or perturbation over the Caribbean that will be absorbed and brought into the area by a strong trough. We anticipate active afternoons each day with the potential increase in the frequency of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Overall, the main hazards from Saturday into Tuesday are the increased risk of flooding across the islands and the risk of mudslides, particularly in areas of steep terrain in Puerto Rico. Therefore, we encourage citizens and visitors to be aware of any additional updates in the forecast.



AVIATION

(18Z TAFS)

VRB weather conditions will persist for the period. SHRA and TSRA over the mountains may result in lower ceilings in the FL030 and FL040. VCTS and SHRA are expected for TJBQ, TJSJ, & TJPS until 01/23Z. After that, winds will diminish until 02/14Z when pick again from the E-SE at 15 knots or less with gusty winds near the showers.
Another round of showers is forecast for TIST & TISX from 02/06- 02/14Z, resulting in lower ceiling, SHRA and briefly MVFR conditions.



MARINE

A surface high pressure extending from the western to central Atlantic will maintain the local pressure gradient tight through tonight. As a result, expect hazardous seas for small craft operators due to confused seas associated with winds and a fading northeasterly swell spreading across the local waters, then improving conditions from Thursday onwards. However, an induced surface trough will shift winds from the east to east-southeast by the latter part of the week while a wet and unstable weather pattern is anticipated.



BEACH FORECAST

A northerly swell and strong winds will maintain a High Risk of Rip Currents across some local beaches. The High Risk for western Puerto Rico, St. Thomas and St. John will continue through Thursday morning, while for the northern, eastern PR, and Culebra should remain through Thursday afternoon. For more information and details about the latest forecast please refer to the Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU) and the Coastal Hazard Message product (CFWSJU).

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ010.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ711-712- 716.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ723-741- 742.

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Arroyo
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Wed -- 01:04 AM AST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:57 AM AST     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:46 AM AST     0.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:27 AM AST     Last Quarter
Wed -- 12:28 PM AST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:07 PM AST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:45 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Arroyo, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Punta Tuna
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:03 AM AST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:32 AM AST     0.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:56 AM AST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM AST     Last Quarter
Wed -- 12:27 PM AST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:25 PM AST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:44 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Punta Tuna, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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