Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tallaboa, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:55PM Sunday December 15, 2019 2:19 AM AST (06:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:27PMMoonset 9:55AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 919 Pm Ast Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Showers.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Sunday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers through the night.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 919 Pm Ast Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue across the local waters, due to a strong ridge of high pressure anchored over the north central atlantic. These brisk trade winds will persist into next week and hazardous seas will return to a broader area on Monday. Isolated to scattered trade wind showers with gusty winds are expected.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tallaboa, PR
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location: 17.98, -66.76     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 150111 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 911 PM AST Sat Dec 14 2019

UPDATE. Latest TJSJ sounding came in moist with a precipitable water around 2.00 inches. Therefore, scattered showers will continue to affect portions of southern and eastern Puerto Rico as well as the USVI during the overnight and morning hours of Sunday. Given the relatively fast moving nature of these showers, rainfall accumulations should remain on the light side with most areas seeing a quarter of an inch or less. Therefore, ponding of water on roadways will continue to be the main hazard associated with these showers. By later Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, moisture content is expected to diminish significantly, reducing the trade wind shower activity.

AVIATION. Mainly VFR conditions expected across the area. However, sct SHRA across the eastern PR, USVI, and Leeward Islands terminals will result in VCSH as well as possible -SHRA/SHRA at the actual terminals. Brief MVFR conditions are possible due to reduction in visibility. Surface winds will generally be from the E-ESE below 10 kts through the overnight period, increasing up to 15 kts with some sea breeze variations after 15/14z.

MARINE. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds between 15 and 20 kts will continue to result in rough seas between 5 and 7 feet across the regional waters. Therefore, small craft advisories continue in effect across the majority of the regional waters, except for the waters along coastal locations of southern and western Puerto Rico. A high risk of rip currents continues for the northern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra and Saint Croix through Sunday with a moderate risk expected across most of the other beaches.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 148 PM AST Sat Dec 14 2019/

SYNOPSIS . A southerly brisk wind flow will continue to bring passing showers through the forecast area. Winds are forecast to diminish on Sunday, but they will increase once again by the beginning of the workweek as a low to mid-level high pressure builds over the Atlantic Ocean.

SHORT TERM . Tonight through Monday . A southerly wind flow will continue to drag passing showers across the southern and eastern coast of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and across the U.S. Virgin Islands through the nighttime and morning hours on Sunday. Winds will subside a bit on Sunday as the pressure gradient loosen. However, by Monday, a low to mid-level ridge builds over the western Caribbean which will promote, once again, a brisk wind flow across the local area. As a result, marine conditions will continue to be hazardous for small crafts and for the beachgoers. In addition, winds will shift from the east-northeast, which should favor an advective pattern across the northern and eastern half of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Moisture content appears to diminish, though, which should limit the frequency of this activity.

LONG TERM . Tuesday through Sunday .

A ridge stretching across the Atlantic on Tuesday to our north will continue to be the dominant feature for the region. It will help to maintain moderate easterly trade winds; as the high pulls away to the east Wednesday into Thursday, winds are forecast to subside somewhat and shift slightly to out of the east-southeast. In the mid- levels, a ridge will persist over the area through the week next week, weakening and pulling away over the weekend as a trough pushes into the area on Sunday. On Tuesday, a weak disturbance making its way into the forecast area will bring enhanced moisture. Meanwhile, a weak upper-level trough will move eastward, stretching over Hispaniola by late Tuesday. This will aid in the development of afternoon shower activity due to local effects and diurnal heating. Passing showers are also likely during the overnight and morning hours. Behind this disturbance is a dry slot that will push into the area on Wednesday. Though the drying trend will continue on Thursday, patches of moisture will begin to filter in. The upper level trough will make its way over us, proceeding eastward Wednesday, pulling away in the latter part of the week. While these factors will likely serve to inhibit somewhat shower activity, the usual pattern of afternoon showers are still likely both days.

Increasing moisture is expected Friday and into the weekend, with the moisture anticipated to extend into the mid-levels. A perturbation pushing into the Caribbean will begin to develop into an inverted trough as it makes its way westward. From here, the certainty in the synoptic patter diminishes significantly. The GFS suggests that this inverted trough will deepens and develop a low that will undergo rapid cyclogenesis off the coasts of New England and Nova Scotia on Sunday. While the ECMWF does show some development of a trough, its solution is much less bullish with this, instead maintaining a strong ridge over the eastern coast of North America. Especially with this being more than a week out, I am somewhat incredulous of the scenario the GFS presents. However, with some developing trough still anticipated, enhanced shower activity is likely for the weekend.

Aviation . Brief SHRA expected across the local area for the rest of today, which will cause at least VCSH across the local terminals. However, -SHRA/SHRA is possible at the actual terminals, but at this time any reduction in visibility, although possible, it is expected to be brief as the SHRA activity is moving quickly. The local winds are expected to be mainly from the E to ESE at 10-15KT with occasional gusts for until 14/23Z, lighter winds thereafter but scattered SHRA will still be expected overnight.

MARINE . Hazardous marine conditions due to strong winds will continue with a slight decrease in seas through the weekend. However, winds will increase once again by the beginning of the workweek, which will result in high seas once again. Seas are up to 8 feet with winds up to 20 knots. Small craft advisories are in effect for most of the waters, except for the coastal waters of southern and southwestern Puerto Rico.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 75 85 76 85 / 70 40 40 40 STT 79 86 76 87 / 40 40 30 50

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for North Central- Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity.

High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for Culebra.

VI . High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for St Croix.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Sunday for Caribbean Waters of Puerto Rico from 10 NM to 17N-Coastal Waters of Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Monday for Anegada Passage Southward to 17N-Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N-Coastal Waters of Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Sunday for Mona Passage Southward to 17N.



SHORT TERM . GL LONG TERM . WS PUBLIC DESK . RVT


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42085 - Southeast of Ponce, PR 14 mi79 min NE 14 G 16 79°F 82°F4 ft1014.3 hPa (+0.0)
MGIP4 - 9759110 - Magueyes Islands, PR 15 mi49 min ESE 4.1 G 8.9
MGZP4 - 9759394 - Mayaguez, PR 27 mi55 min 83°F1015.7 hPa
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 29 mi94 min ENE 2.9 74°F 1017 hPa73°F
AROP4 - 9757809 - Arecibo, PR 35 mi49 min Calm G 0
PTRP4 37 mi19 min E 5.1 G 7 77°F
41115 - Rincon, Puerto Rico (181) 39 mi19 min 83°F4 ft
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 48 mi49 min E 5.1 G 6 78°F 82°F1015.7 hPa
41053 - San Juan, PR 49 mi79 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 79°F 83°F6 ft1014.6 hPa (-0.3)
YABP4 - 9754228 - Yabucoa Harbor, PR 49 mi49 min 83°F 74°F

Wind History for Penuelas (Punta Guayanilla), PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for TJPS

Wind History from JPS (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Playa de Ponce, Puerto Rico
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Playa de Ponce
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Sun -- 01:08 AM AST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:49 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:54 AM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:29 PM AST     0.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:53 PM AST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:25 PM AST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Guanica, Puerto Rico
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Guánica
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Sun -- 01:39 AM AST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:50 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:55 AM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:46 PM AST     0.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:54 PM AST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:27 PM AST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.