Sunday, January26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Culebra, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:11PM Sunday January 26, 2020 12:00 PM AST (16:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:12AMMoonset 7:49PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 935 Am Ast Sun Jan 26 2020
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Northeast swell around 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Numerous showers.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. East swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
AMZ700 935 Am Ast Sun Jan 26 2020
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A fading northerly swell will continue to move across the atlantic waters and caribbean passages throughout the day. Light to gentle east-northeast winds will prevail today, then shifting from east- southeast on Monday and more from the south by Tuesday. Lingering moisture from the remnants of an old boundary will aid in the development of showers over the local waters through early this week, especially over the eastern and southern waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Culebra, PR
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location: 18.02, -64.67     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 261427 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 1027 AM AST Sun Jan 26 2020

UPDATE. Radar Doppler detected showers affecting the USVI during the overnight hours and into the morning hours. This activity has diminished, but it will increase once again in the afternoon hours due to the interaction of the lingering moisture and local effects over the islands. For Puerto Rico, a round of showers is expected during the afternoon mainly over portions of interior and southwestern PR. Then, this showers will drift away and move over the coastal waters. Rainfall amounts are expected to cause localized flooding, mainly for the southwestern portions of PR.

AVIATION. Mainly VFR conditions are expected drg fcst prd. VCSH is expected for most of the terminals in the afternoon hours, as moisture associated with the frontal boundary combines with local and diurnal effects.

MARINE. No changes were made to the forecast grids. We will continue expecting tranquil marine conditions through the beginning of the workweek. San Juan buoys are observing seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 507 AM AST Sun Jan 26 2020/

SYNOPSIS .

Active weather is expected to continue today, as the remains of an old front continue to persist over the region. Scattered to numerous showers could lead to localized flooding again for some areas, particularly given the slow nature of these showers and the already saturated soils. However, for the latter half of next week, a drying trend is expected. Seas are calming down as a northerly swell continues to weaken.

SHORT TERM . Today through Tuesday .

Moisture in the lower layers has been carried up into Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands around a high pressure located in the southeast Caribbean Sea. This is joining moisture already in place along an old frontal boundary that is now roughly in the vicinity of Saint Kitts and northeast. This high pressure circulation will keep relatively good moisture in the lower levels through Tuesday. With flow in the lower levels very light or southerly, showers will form in much the same pattern as they have been over the past few days. Models are showing good chances of rain over the interior of Puerto Rico and around the U.S. Virgin Islands today. These areas develop during the day and then decay into steady rains over much of the area--mainly Puerto Rico during the overnight period, then drifting north and dissipating. Bands of better relative humidity are seen forming south of the area and repeating the pattern on Monday. This has favored showers forming in the interior but then spreading onto the coastal areas later in the day and during the evening hours. Slow movements have allowed some favored areas to receive up to 2 inches of rain and a similar pattern is expected through Tuesday.

Upper levels have tended to enhance the action along the old frontal boundary that is oscillating across the area. A weak upper level trough moving mainly north of the area toward the east will move across this morning. Then a broad and weak ridge extending out of high pressure on the northern border of Brazil will move across on Monday morning. The strong jet will re-strengthen on Tuesday marking the area where the upper level long wave trough will move through the western Atlantic and strengthen he gradient between itself and the high over South America.

LONG TERM . Wednesday through Monday .

Though there are some long-range model differences, the long- term forecast generally looks drier than the short-term period. For the middle of this week, the GFS model still has plenty of moisture in the region from leftover fronts, but only minimal amounts are forecasted to be over the local islands for Wednesday and Thursday. However, the European model at this point is forecasting more moisture and a higher likelihood of scattered showers under southwesterly flow. Any shower activity is not expected to be very intense, and there is only a minimal thunderstorm threat. However, under the more persistent showers, there will be a threat for localized flooding. Furthermore, low- level steering winds still look very light, meaning slow moving showers that increase flooding concerns.

Interestingly, there is actually more model agreement heading towards the next weekend. Beginning on Friday, a large mid to upper level ridge is expected to move over and help to dry us out. As usual, there will still be some low-level moisture around to keep isolated showers in the forecast. Wind flow is forecasted to be from the southeast, which will favor showers for the southern and eastern coasts of Puerto Rico, though these showers will not be very impactful.

AVIATION .

Areas of overcast clouds over Puerto Rico will persist but overcast is expected to be FL045-060 and greater with only scattered layers below. Areas of SHRA to continue over local waters but -RA lcly inland should cont to diminish. SHRA/RA to dvlp aft 25/18Z ovr PR and arnd the USVI and cont byd 26/03Z with lcly MVFR conds and mtn obscurations. Sfc winds vrbl less than 10 kt bcmg predominantly sea breezes 6-12 kt aft 26/15Z. Maximum winds WNW-NW 55-75 kt btwn FL 220-480 strongest winds at FL310.

MARINE .

A northerly swell is continuing to weaken this morning, and seas have gone below Small Craft Advisory criteria. However, small craft operators should still exercise caution today. Thereafter, seas are expected to be fairly calm for the remainder of the week. Ample shower activity is expected across the local waters for today and the beginning of the workweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 83 73 84 73 / 80 60 80 60 STT 83 73 82 73 / 40 40 60 70

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for Culebra- Mayaguez and Vicinity-North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity-Southeast.

VI . High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for St Thomas. St John. and Adjacent Islands.

AM . None.

SHORT TERM . FRG LONG TERM . CAM PUBLIC DESK . ICP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41052 - South of St. John, Virgin Islands 17 mi61 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 80°F2 ft1015.8 hPa (+1.6)
CHSV3 - 9751364 - Christiansted Harbor, Virgin Islands 19 mi49 min 83°F 80°F1016.5 hPa
LAMV3 21 mi43 min 76°F 81°F
LTBV3 - 9751401 - Lime Tree Bay, VI 23 mi43 min 81°F 81°F1017 hPa
CHAV3 - 9751639 - Charlotte Amalie, VI 25 mi49 min 77°F 1016.8 hPa
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 39 mi49 min 83°F 81°F1016.9 hPa
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 43 mi43 min 82°F 80°F1017.1 hPa
41056 45 mi61 min E 5.8 G 7.8 79°F 81°F4 ft1015.9 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for Christiansted Harbor, St Croix, VI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR76 mi65 minENE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F71°F72%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for TJSJ

Wind History from JSJ (wind in knots)
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1 day ago53N6NE7E9NE7E7E8E6CalmNW9SW4W5SW4NW7NW3CalmW3SE4SE3Calm3SW3NE3
2 days agoCalmNW12NW17
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NW10SW6CalmW7CalmW3CalmCalmCalmE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW63N64

Tide / Current Tables for Christiansted, St. Croix Island, Virgin Islands
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Christiansted
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:44 AM AST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:52 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:11 AM AST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:51 AM AST     0.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:01 PM AST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:10 PM AST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:36 PM AST     0.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:49 PM AST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.30.40.50.50.50.40.40.40.40.40.40.50.50.40.30.20

Tide / Current Tables for St. Croix, Lime Tree Bay, Virgin Islands
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St. Croix
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:07 AM AST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:52 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:11 AM AST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:33 AM AST     0.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:10 PM AST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:50 PM AST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.