Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Culebra, PR

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 6:40PM Sunday August 25, 2019 12:32 PM AST (16:32 UTC) Moonrise 12:59AMMoonset 2:26PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1019 Am Ast Sun Aug 25 2019
Today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 50 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Northeast swell around 4 feet. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
AMZ700 1019 Am Ast Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A surface high pressure over the north central atlantic will continue to promote a moderate east to southeast wind flow through Monday. Drier dusty air will arrive later today associated with somewhat stronger winds. Weather conditions are forecast to deteriorate by midweek as tropical storm dorian moves west across the caribbean sea.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Culebra, PR
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location: 18.02, -64.67     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 251628
afdsju
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
1228 pm ast Sun aug 25 2019

Update
Overall drying trend continued during the rest of the day as a
drier airmass and the saharan air layer continued to spread across
the region. Recent tjsj 25 12z upper air sounding as well as the
terminal doppler weather radar and satellite imagery all suggest
very limited shower activity and a drying trend to continue for
the for the rest of today through Monday. However locally and
diurnally induced afternoon shower development will remain possible
in isolated areas across or just downwind of the islands under a
dominant east to southeast wind flow. No change to the inherited
forecast package and reasoning at this time.

For the long term here is a summary of the latest advisory number
5 on tropical storm dorian issued at 11:00 am ast 1500 utc by the
nws national hurricane center miami florida:
at 1100 am ast (1500 utc), the center of tropical storm dorian was
located near latitude 11.2 north, longitude 52.9 west. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km h), and this motion should
continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of dorian is expected to
be near the windward islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move
into the eastern caribbean sea on Tuesday. Some strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours, and dorian could be near
hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern caribbean sea.

Information
-----------------------------------------------
location... 11.2n 52.9w
about 465 mi... 750 km ese of barbados
maximum sustained winds... 40 mph... 65 km h
present movement... W or 280 degrees at 14 mph... 22 km h
minimum central pressure... 1008 mb... 29.77 inches
-----------------------------------------------
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

Interests in puerto rico, the u.S virgin islands, should closely
monitor the progress of dorian.

Aviation update Vfr conds. No change to previous avn
discussion.

Marine update No change to the short term marine discussion at
this time. Conditions are still expected to deteriorate over all
or portions of the regional waters during the latter part of the
upcoming work week due to the approach of tropical storm dorian.

Stay tuned for further updates on this system.

Prev discussion issued 518 am ast Sun aug 25 2019
synopsis...

a dry air mass with saharan dust particles will result in hazy
skies today through Tuesday. Tropical cyclone dorian it's
forecast to cross the lesser antilles Tuesday night and moving
close to our local region next Wednesday. There is still
uncertainty on the forecast. Therefore, the impacts of dorian
will be linked to the final track and intensity of the tropical
cyclone.

Short term... Today through Tuesday...

a few passing showers were observed across portions of eastern
puerto rico as well as the local and regional waters. This activity
is a result of lingering moisture from the departed tropical wave
and an easterly wind surge. The light showers are expected to
continue through this afternoon before a dry saharan air mass
filters into the u.S. Virgin islands and eastern puerto rico. This
dry saharan air mass will continue to seep into other areas of the
island throughout the afternoon.

The precipitable water value is a good indicator of how much
moisture is over the area. Last night tjsj 00z sounding had a
precipitable water value of 1.87 inches, and the GFS model tjsj
sounding at 18z today shows the value diminishing to 1.28 inches. The
precipitable water value of 1.28 inches this afternoon ranks 2
standard deviations below normal. The GFS shows precipitable water
values remaining 2 standard deviations below normal through Tuesday.

The high-res WRF model shows limited shower activity through
Tuesday, as a result of, a dry stable air mass. Therefore expect
fair weather with hazy skies to prevail through Tuesday with limited
shower activity across the adjacent islands and puerto rico.

However, development of a few showers can't be ruled out, as a
result of, diurnal heating and local effects during the afternoons
mainly over the interior and western areas of puerto rico.

Temperatures over the next several days will be near the upper 80s
to the lower 90s in lower elevations, and the lower to middle 80s in
higher elevations.

Long term... Wednesday through Sunday...

according to the national hurricane center forecast, tropical
cyclone dorian will move as a cat-1 hurricane across the local
archipelago Wednesday through Thursday. At this time, there is
plenty of uncertainty regarding the intensity and track of dorian.

Therefore, it's too soon to determine the timing and magnitude of
the impacts in the u.S. Virgin islands and puerto rico. Those in
the region should monitor the evolution of this system for
further updates as it approaches.

Another tropical wave is forecast to reach the local islands
Saturday evening or Sunday. Although is to early to determine the
magnitude of this wave, model guidance does appear to suggest
unsettled weather conditions with widespread rains and
thunderstorms.

Aviation...

mainlyVFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast
period. Shra could develop across terminals tjbq an tjmz by 25 18z
with the activity clearing out by 26 02z. Hz skies across the usvi
and pr eastern terminals by 25 15z. Ese wind ranging from 10 to 15
kts with higher gusts today.

Marine... Seas up to 5 feet and winds around 15 knots are
expected across the local waters through much of the forecast
period. Local effects will increase winds around 20 knots across
the coastal waters of northern and southern puerto rico during the
afternoon hours, where mariners should exercise caution.

According to the official NHC forecast, dorian will deteriorate
the marine conditions Wednesday through at least Thursday across
the local waters.

For the beach goers, there is a moderate risk of rip current for
most of the local beaches of puerto rico and the southern u.S.

Virgin islands today.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 91 81 90 79 20 20 20 20
stt 90 81 90 79 20 20 20 20

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... None.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Ram
long term... .Mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41052 - South of St. John, Virgin Islands 17 mi62 min ESE 12 G 14 85°F 1016 hPa
CHSV3 - 9751364 - Christiansted Harbor, Virgin Islands 19 mi50 min E 5.1 G 13 89°F 85°F1016.9 hPa
LAMV3 21 mi44 min 85°F 86°F
LTBV3 - 9751401 - Lime Tree Bay, VI 23 mi44 min SE 5.1 G 11 87°F 86°F1017.5 hPa
CHAV3 - 9751639 - Charlotte Amalie, VI 25 mi50 min 85°F 1017.1 hPa
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 39 mi50 min 89°F 87°F1017.4 hPa
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 43 mi44 min ESE 8 G 14 87°F 86°F1017.7 hPa
41056 45 mi92 min E 12 G 16 84°F 85°F3 ft1017.3 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Christiansted Harbor, St Croix, VI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR76 mi36 minE 129.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F77°F66%1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for TJSJ

Wind History from JSJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE15E14E16NE18
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E17E12E6E8E6----SE3----SE3E6--E7E10E11E12E12
G19
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1 day agoE16
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E13E13E10E9E6E7------S3S3--CalmCalmSE3SE8E10E12E15E15
2 days agoE6SE9SE9
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E6SE4S33SE4----E5SE4E6E3SE4SE4E8E12E15E15E17

Tide / Current Tables for Christiansted, St. Croix Island, Virgin Islands
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Christiansted
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:59 AM AST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:03 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:17 AM AST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:25 PM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:34 PM AST     0.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:38 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.70.60.40.30.10-000.10.20.30.50.70.80.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for St. Croix, Lime Tree Bay, Virgin Islands
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St. Croix
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:00 AM AST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:03 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:01 AM AST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:26 PM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:38 PM AST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:55 PM AST     0.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.10.10.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.90.90.90.90.90.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.