Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Culebra, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:09PM Thursday January 23, 2020 7:44 AM AST (11:44 UTC) Moonrise 5:50AMMoonset 5:09PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 400 Am Ast Thu Jan 23 2020
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering northwest after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Scattered showers.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Northeast swell 4 to 5 feet. Scattered showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Northeast swell 4 to 7 feet. Numerous showers.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Northeast swell 4 to 6 feet. Numerous showers.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Northeast swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 400 Am Ast Thu Jan 23 2020
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A surface low pressure to our north will maintain a moderate southerly wind flow across the region into the afternoon hours today. Winds will become gentle to moderate and variable on Friday as a frontal boundary moves in. Tranquil marine conditions will persist today into Friday, but another northerly swell is expected to cause hazardous seas from Friday morning and into Sunday. The threat for showers will increase heading towards the weekend as the aforementioned front moves into the region.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Culebra, PR
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location: 18.02, -64.67     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 230903 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 503 AM AST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS.

A more active period of weather is expected as we head towards the weekend, due to a front that is moving in from the west. Scattered showers are expected for today and tomorrow, but more persistent shower activity is possible over the local islands for the weekend. Though there is only a minimal thunderstorm threat the next few days, areas where persistent showers set up could give rise to urban and small stream flooding. Another swell from the north is expected to arrive tomorrow morning and last most of the weekend.

SHORT TERM. Today through Saturday .

Several zones of convergence have set up across the area ahead of a cold front which sweeps southwest from a rapidly deepening low about 150 miles southeast of Bermuda and north of the Leeward Islands. At 5 AM AST, the front was across the Dominican Republic. The convergence zones were across the western coast of Puerto Rico and eastern Puerto Rico, but both have weakened considerably and radar shows only scattered showers in the Mona Passage and over and south of Cabo Rojo and along the Cordillera Central. Currently the cold front is progged to enter Puerto Rico around midday and move through the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. Currently lightning is detected with the front but north of 21 degrees north latitude. Heating over Puerto Rico could enhance instability enough this afternoon to create isolated thunderstorms in the area, otherwise only increasing showers over the area is expected. Satellite imagery also shows tops are relatively warm this far south. Once the front passes through all the islands and leaves the area on Friday, winds will be quite weak, but should be able to return to the east under the influence of a weak high set to form north of the area behind the front. However by Saturday, in very weak flow a band of moisture begins to form just tens of miles north of the islands such that clouds showers are able to linger over the area the entire period and beyond.

Low pressure at mid and upper levels in the western Atlantic east of Georgia and north of Puerto Rico will move northeast and will allow a ridge to build over the area today and move over the Leeward Islands by Saturday night. This will keep mid levels dry above 600 mb for the entire period. Lower levels however show good vertical velocity towers in the time-height profile today through at least Saturday that promises lots of showers generally less than 15 kft deep forming across the area.

LONG TERM. Sunday through Friday .

The aforementioned front as described in the short term discussion will still be with us for Sunday, driving additional shower activity. Upper level atmospheric conditions don't appear to be favorable for thunderstorms, with a ridge forecasted to build to our west in the 250mb GFS model, and a 500mb temperature of only -5 to -6 for Sunday afternoon. However, this does not mean the showers won't be impactful. With the tail of this front expected to be right over the top of us for the weekend and even lingering into Monday, areas that receive the more persistent showers could have periods of urban and small stream flooding. Low level winds during Sunday and into the workweek are mostly are forecasted to stay at or below 10 knots, causing slow-moving showers and a higher chance for flooding.

Models somewhat diverge after the weekend. The European model has us continuing to be under the front into Wednesday, while the GFS puts the front a bit to our north, with only bits of moisture moving in. Regardless, the situation appears a bit drier than this weekend, and that trend is expected to continue for the remainder of the workweek.

AVIATION.

Mainly VFR conds are expected to prevail across all terminals. However, SHRA over PR could cause tempo MVFR conds at TJPS/TJMZ and aft 23/14Z ovr TJBQ and aft 23/18Z briefly at TJSJ. Mtn obscurations are expected thru the pd. Sfc winds will be vrb as a cold front moves thru the area and sea breezes interact with the atypical flow pattern. Winds should switch to northerly in PR from west to east btwn 23/21-24/04Z but may not switch in the USVI, but remain more SW. Winds will be less than 10 kt except for some gusts near showers. Max winds west 75- 85kt btwn between FL390-450.

MARINE.

Calm seas will prevail into tomorrow. However, low pressure to our north will induce a northerly swell that will arrive tomorrow morning and be with us till Sunday. It appears that this swell will not be as long or intense as the last one. However, dangerous marine conditions are likely, particularly for the Atlantic waters and local passages. Shower activity will pick up over the next several days as a front approaches from the west. The weekend looks particularly active, though conditions will not be very conducive for thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 84 73 82 73 / 80 60 60 60 STT 84 73 83 71 / 30 50 50 50

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . VI . None. AM . Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 8 PM AST Saturday for Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N- Coastal Waters of Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.



SHORT TERM . WS LONG TERM . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41052 - South of St. John, Virgin Islands 17 mi105 min S 9.7 G 12 79°F 81°F4 ft1009.6 hPa (+0.3)
CHSV3 - 9751364 - Christiansted Harbor, Virgin Islands 19 mi63 min 77°F 81°F1011.1 hPa
LAMV3 21 mi63 min 77°F 80°F
LTBV3 - 9751401 - Lime Tree Bay, VI 23 mi57 min 79°F 81°F1011.4 hPa
CHAV3 - 9751639 - Charlotte Amalie, VI 25 mi63 min 78°F 1010.9 hPa
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 39 mi63 min 78°F 80°F1011.1 hPa
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 43 mi63 min 82°F 78°F1011.4 hPa
41056 45 mi105 min SSW 9.7 G 12 79°F 80°F2 ft1009.6 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Christiansted Harbor, St Croix, VI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for TJSJ

Wind History from JSJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3SE3E6E8SE5SE8SE6SE6S6SE8S6S3SE6E6E4CalmS33CalmCalmSW4S3S4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmE6SE7SE6E8SE7S9SE86S8S5E3E3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
2 days agoSE9E8E12E13E14E12E14E13E16E9E9E6E5SE3SE3SE3SE4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Christiansted, St. Croix Island, Virgin Islands
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Christiansted
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:49 AM AST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:52 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:30 AM AST     0.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:25 PM AST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:54 PM AST     0.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:10 PM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:08 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for St. Croix, Lime Tree Bay, Virgin Islands
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St. Croix
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:49 AM AST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:52 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:18 AM AST     0.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:10 PM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:08 PM AST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:46 PM AST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.