Thursday, March4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Vieques, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 6:30PM Thursday March 4, 2021 11:36 PM AST (03:36 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 10:40AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 901 Pm Ast Thu Mar 4 2021
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Isolated showers through the night.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated showers through the night.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers through the day.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 901 Pm Ast Thu Mar 4 2021
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Light to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. Fairly tranquil seas are expected to persist for the most part, however, a northerly swell will affect the atlantic waters and local passages. This will result in choppy seas, mainly across the offshore atlantic waters through late tonight.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vieques, PR
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location: 18.15, -65.43     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 050153 AAA AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service San Juan PR 953 PM AST Thu Mar 4 2021

UPDATE. Moisture increases Friday night but models no longer follow with significant QPF. By 06/00Z good moisture reaches 600 mb according to the GFS, but moisture is barely 60 percent at 850 mb. The GFS was also showed good moisture this afternoon at 04/21Z, but latest sounding revealed that it was very shallow and ended near 7 kft, with relative humidity at 2 percent at 9 kft. Hence only the briefest showers affecting very few areas were able to form. Precipitable water came in at 1.18 inches this evening.

The TPW product showed moisture moving in from the south, however cloud cover was low-topped and appeared to cover less than 50 percent of the area which had up to two inches of precipitable water. Drier air will persist tonight, but some low mid level clouds may move over the area on Friday, limit sunshine in the south half of the area before noon, and spread into the area with some limited increase in low level moisture Friday evening. However the 850 mb moisture drops back to around 30-40 percent over the eastern half of Puerto Rico (and all areas east of there) by 06/07Z, leaving little to no confidence in a dramatic increase in showers or significant quantities of rain. With southeast flow continuing and possibly so light as to be variable at times, San Juan would have even more limited chances of significant rain, therefore have lowered the POPS for much of the next 48 hours. Stray showers and some increase of rain chances along the southeast coast of Puerto Rico are expected.

AVIATION. VFR conds will prevail. Sfc winds less than 9 kts tonight and in some areas light and vrbl. Then winds increasing to 6 to 12 knots in SE flow, with some sea breeze influences. Max winds W 35-45 kt btwn FL320-420.

MARINE. Seas at the outer buoy rose to 7.5 feet and then subsided below 6 feet during the late afternoon in a swell of 12-15 seconds. This northerly swell will arrive in the local waters later tonight and generate seas of 5 to less than 7 feet. models suggest that this will be a short-lived event and seas will continue to subside. In the same vein the rip current risk which is high along the north central coast of Puerto Rico will subside to moderate. Moderate rip current risk will remain for most beaches with a north and east exposure for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 424 PM AST Thu Mar 4 2021/

SYNOPSIS . A drier air mass will maintain fair and stable weather conditions through Friday. A shift towards a wetter pattern is expected Friday evening into Saturday as moisture increases with the passage of an easterly disturbance. Drier conditions are expected to return on Sunday into early next week. East to southeast winds are forecast to increase and turn from the east to northeast during the first part of next week.

SHORT TERM . Tonight through Saturday .

Mainly fair and stable weather conditions under mostly clear skies and limited shower activity are forecast through Friday. This results from persistent, drier air moving across the region along with unfavorable conditions for shower development due to ridging aloft promoting subsidence and maintaining a strong trade wind cap around 850 mb. The expected light to moderate southeasterly surface wind flow, generated by the interaction of a frontal boundary to the north and a surface-high pressure extending across the central Atlantic, will promote above-normal temperatures across portions of northern Puerto Rico.

Model guidance suggests that the local weather conditions will shift towards a more wetter pattern by Friday evening, with an westward-propagating disturbance enhancing low-level moisture convergence and a better chance for showers. So far, highest impact is expected over eastern Puerto Rico and the USVI through Saturday morning. Somewhat favorable conditions aloft with the weakening of the trade wind cap, reinforced by the southern-most edge of a mid- to- upper level trough, along with local and diurnal effects will promote shower development along the interior, northern and western sections of Puerto Rico in the afternoon. There is potential for urban and small stream flooding with this activity. Thereafter, conditions will gradually dry out, leading to mainly fair and stable weather conditions Saturday night into Sunday.

LONG TERM . Sunday through Thursday .

FROM PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 422 AM AST Thu Mar 4 2021/

Fair weather conditions are expected to return on Sunday as a drier air mass moves across the area, limiting shower activity. On Monday, a frontal boundary is expected to be situated northwest of the area, with an increase in low-level moisture expected. This will cause shower activity to increase somewhat with isolated to scattered showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the USVI during the morning hours followed by locally induced activity across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. The low- level winds will then increase on Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. This will favor a cool advective pattern with patches of moisture moving across the area from time to time, resulting in trade wind showers.

Then, by the end of the long term period, the weather pattern begins to undergo changes aloft as a mid and upper-level trough amplifies across the central and eastern Caribbean. If model guidance is correct on this solution, then a more unstable weather pattern is more likely by the latter half of next week with more enhanced shower activity possible across portions of the area.

AVIATION . VFR conds expected through Friday morning. VCSH is possible at TJBQ this afternoon, but would be mainly brief. Prevailing SE winds around 10KT with sea breeze variations, causing easterly winds at TJSJ and northerly winds at TJBQ through 04/22Z. Winds will become light and variable overnight, but then will once again become SE, albeit generally under 10KT, with the same variations in TJSJ and TJBQ that were observed today.

MARINE . Small craft operators should exercise caution due to choppy seas up to 6 feet, generated by a northerly swell, across the offshore Atlantic waters tonight. Elsewhere, tranquil marine conditions with seas up to 5 feet and east to southeast winds up to 15 knots will prevail through the weekend. There is a high risk of rip currents for beaches along the north central coast of Puerto Rico, with low to moderate elsewhere. Increasing winds along with the arrival of a northerly swell will generate hazardous marine and coastal conditions by early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 73 87 74 86 / 0 20 20 20 STT 73 84 73 84 / 20 20 20 20

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST Friday for North Central.

VI . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM . WS LONG TERM . ICP PUBLIC DESK . CVB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 4 mi48 min S 5.1 G 6 81°F1015.9 hPa
41056 8 mi96 min S 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 79°F3 ft
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 12 mi48 min 78°F 81°F1015.6 hPa
41052 - South of St. John, Virgin Islands 36 mi96 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 79°F 79°F2 ft1014.6 hPa (+1.3)
LAMV3 39 mi48 min 74°F 81°F
41053 - San Juan, PR 42 mi36 min S 5.8 G 7.8 77°F 79°F4 ft1014.4 hPa (+1.2)
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 42 mi48 min S 7 G 8.9 77°F 79°F1015.6 hPa
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 44 mi111 min Calm 75°F 1017 hPa69°F
CHSV3 - 9751364 - Christiansted Harbor, Virgin Islands 48 mi48 min NE 1 G 1.9 75°F 81°F1015.6 hPa
LTBV3 - 9751401 - Lime Tree Bay, VI 48 mi48 min SSE 4.1 G 7 78°F 80°F1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Isabel Segunda, Vieques Island, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR36 mi40 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F69°F77%1015.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for TJSJ

Wind History from JSJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalm4S6S5S8NE9NE12NE10SE5SE6S6S6S6S5S4Calm
1 day agoE12E8SE3E8E6SE4E5SE4SE3E8E11E14E14
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E9E14E12E11SE9S7SE6SE5S4SW4
2 days agoE10SE3E9SE3SE5E5SE4E9E9E16E14E17NE17NE13
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NE12E11NE10NE8NE9NE8NE11

Tide / Current Tables for Punta Mulas, Isla de Vieques, Puerto Rico
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Punta Mulas
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Thu -- 12:52 AM AST     1.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:38 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:13 AM AST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:40 AM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:33 PM AST     0.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:28 PM AST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:47 PM AST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.110.90.60.40.30.20.20.30.50.60.70.70.60.40.20-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current (2)
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Vieques Passage
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Thu -- 02:47 AM AST     0.90 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:06 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:38 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:26 AM AST     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:41 AM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:05 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:35 PM AST     0.47 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:13 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:29 PM AST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:15 PM AST     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.60.80.90.80.50-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.4-00.30.40.50.30.1-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.3

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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