Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mayagüez, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 6:56PM Friday August 14, 2020 2:25 PM AST (18:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:45AMMoonset 3:16PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ742 Coastal Waters Of Northwestern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 956 Am Ast Fri Aug 14 2020
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers through the night.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots backing northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots veering southeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms, then isolated showers.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 956 Am Ast Fri Aug 14 2020
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Moderate to fresh trade winds will persist across most of the regional waters into the weekend, resulting in choppy seas. Tropical storm josephine is still forecast to track well northeast of the region during the weekend. This could result in some hazardous marine conditions for portions of the offshore atlantic waters, as well as an increase in shower and isolated Thunderstorm activity across the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayag�ez, PR
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location: 18.22, -67.15     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 141605 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 1205 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020

UPDATE. Models have been fairly consistent with the track of Tropical Storm Josephine so the major features of the forecast have not changed. Still expecting wet periods tonight, Saturday night and Sunday night with showers also forming in the afternoon in northwest Puerto Rico on Sunday. The chances for thunderstorms will increase over the weekend.

The latest sounding from San Juan at 14/12Z was wet with 2.02 inches of precipitable water and the cap was considerably reduced in strength. Showers continue over the Atlantic waters with a few over land even over SW Puerto Rico. Showers will increase in intensity during the afternoon with the possibility of a thunderstorm, although heating has been somewhat diminished by cloud cover. Nevertheless 500 mb temperatures are up to minus 4.5 degrees C and will continue to warm through Saturday afternoon.

Minor changes to POP and temperature grids to move toward latest model solutions.

AVIATION. SHRA to increase over PR from NE to SW corners. Isold TSRA. Sct SHRA to cont byd 15/02Z. Some mtn obscurations to dvlp drg the period. Sfc winds E 10-20 kt with sea breeze influences bcmg E less than 10 kt aft 14/23Z. Max winds WSW-WNW 26-36 kt btwn FL400-460 diminishing aft 14/18Z.

MARINE. Seas are expected to remain less than 7 feet in the local waters with the passage of Tropical Storm Josephine on Sunday. Seas will build to 7 feet in most of the outer waters Wednesday and Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 407 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020/

SYNOPSIS .

Though conditions are generally drying behind yesterday's tropical wave, there is still sufficient moisture to maintain a typical shower pattern for today. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in southwestern and interior Puerto Rico this afternoon, and there is a risk for urban and small stream flooding. Tropical Storm Josephine is still expected to track well to the north of the area over the weekend. The system could help to pull some moisture across the area, though, bringing showers for Saturday.

SHORT TERM . Today through Sunday . For today, a patch of moisture is forecast to move over the local area and cause scattered showers in the morning. Then, isolated to scattered showers are possible due to local effects mainly over portions of eastern into the central interior of Puerto Rico. However, some portions of the western interior into the southwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico may observe numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, some showers could be heavy at times and could cause minor flooding. Another band of moisture will move in tonight, and cause widely scattered showers across the local area, especially the local waters, USVI, and eastern PR. A small area of dry air will then move in on Saturday morning, lingering into the early afternoon hours and causing mainly fair weather. That said, a band of moisture associated with Tropical Storm Josephine will move in on Saturday night, and affect the local waters, northern PR, and northern USVI. But this forecast has a high uncertainty since it is highly dependent on the overall organization and general track of Josephine. However, it is expected for the overall moisture to increase across portions of the local forecast area, likely on the Atlantic side as Josephine passes to the NE of the local islands. The latest model guidance suggests that a dry slot will move in on Sunday, although there again will be some uncertainty. But the GFS model suggests that a slot of dry air will move in on Sunday along with southerly winds. This setup would cause an increase in daytime temps across the northern half of PR, possibly causing temps in the low to mid 90s. That said, if the winds are as light as the models suggest, a strong sea breeze would moderate these temps near the coast, and the higher than normal temps would be more common a few miles inland on the northern side of the island.

LONG TERM . Monday through Saturday .

On Monday, moisture associated with Tropical Storm Josephine combined with a relatively weak wave will stream across the area. As such, an increase in shower activity is anticipated across the region, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially in northwestern Puerto Rico. Behind the wave is a large area of disorganized patches of moisture, which are anticipated to affect the area of Tuesday. Moisture is likely to decrease late in the day, however. A typical pattern is likely on the day, with shower activity becoming more inhibited in the evening. This is due to a small area of dry air ahead of another wave.

Late on Tuesday night, a vigorous tropical wave is forecast to make its way into the area. Significantly higher moisture levels are anticipated, and shower activity is likely to be fairly widespread. The wave will linger over the area into Thursday. Once again, a drier air mass is expected to move in ahead of the next wave mid- morning on Thursday through the afternoon. The next wave is forecast to arrive overnight on Thursday night into Friday, and this one is also expected to be fairly vigorous. Another surge of moisture across the area will lead to an increase in showers. Widespread afternoon showers with isolated thunderstorms are anticipated for Friday, with the peak in activity in western and interior Puerto Rico. This will be followed by enhanced passing shower activity during the night.

On Saturday, disorganized patches of moisture will help to sustain shower activity across the area. Late in the day yet another tropical wave is forecast to approach the area. So, on the whole, next week is currently looking to be fairly repetitive.

AVIATION .

VFR conds expected through the forecast period across the local terminals. VCSH is expected however, and a few brief SHRA may affect the terminals, but it is not expected to significantly reduce VIS or CIGs. TSRA is possible across SW-PR this afternoon, which may cause VCTS at TJPS between 14/16 and 14/21. After 14/13Z, winds will increase to around 15KT, from the east but with sea breeze variations.

MARINE .

Winds of up to 20 knots persist across the bulk of the local waters, contributing to continuing choppy conditions. Seas of up to 6 feet are anticipated for portions of the Atlantic waters, with seas up to 5 feet elsewhere, through the weekend. Tropical Storm Josephine is still forecast to pass by well to the north of the area over the weekend. This has the potential to cause some deteriorating conditions, mostly in the offshore Atlantic waters; though the current forecast keeps waves to around 6 feet at maximum, locally hazardous conditions cannot be ruled out.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at most northern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as a handful of beaches in the southeast and southwest, and eastern Culebra and St. Croix.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 89 79 89 78 / 30 70 50 50 STT 91 80 88 80 / 30 50 40 50

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . None. VI . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM . WS LONG TERM . mb PUBLIC DESK . CVB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTRP4 11 mi25 min NE 11 G 18 90°F
41115 - Rincon, Puerto Rico (181) 13 mi29 min 85°F2 ft
42085 - Southeast of Ponce, PR 41 mi85 min E 19 G 23 86°F 85°F4 ft1011.7 hPa (-1.6)

Wind History for Mayaguez, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Aquadilla, Rafael Hernandez Airport, PR19 mi35 minE 16 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy0°F0°F%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for TJMZ

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Tide / Current Tables for Mayaguez, Puerto Rico
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Mayaguez
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Fri -- 01:44 AM AST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:07 AM AST     0.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:10 AM AST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:54 AM AST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:16 PM AST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:22 PM AST     1.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:55 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.90.90.90.80.60.40.20.10.10.10.30.611.31.51.61.61.51.31.10.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Puerto Real, Puerto Rico
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Puerto Real
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Fri -- 01:44 AM AST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:04 AM AST     0.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:10 AM AST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:49 AM AST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:15 PM AST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:19 PM AST     1.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:55 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.70.70.70.60.50.30.20.100.10.30.50.70.91.11.21.21.10.90.80.60.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.