Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cata�o, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 6:53PM Thursday August 13, 2020 5:04 AM AST (09:04 UTC) Moonrise 12:54AMMoonset 2:17PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ712 Coastal Waters Of Northern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 427 Am Ast Thu Aug 13 2020
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers through the night.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers through the night.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 427 Am Ast Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Moderate to fresh trade winds will persist across the regional waters through the end of the work week, resulting in choppy seas. Tropical depression eleven is expected to become a tropical storm today, and is still forecast to track north of the region during the weekend. This could result in hazardous marine conditions, mainly across the offshore atlantic waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cata?o, PR
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location: 18.46, -66.12     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 130851 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 451 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS.

Drier and more stable conditions are expected today, though there is still the potential for showers due to local and diurnal effects. This pattern will continue tomorrow, as well. Tropical Depression Eleven is forecast to become a tropical storm today, after which it will pass by the area to the north over the weekend. No direct impacts are anticipated with this system, though there is the potential for increased rainfall this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM. Today through Saturday .

The tropical wave moved away during the evening, and drier air is moving in. We now observe below normal moisture and it is expected for the dry air to continue through the day. That said, some locally induced showers and an isolated thunderstorm could occur across a small section of western Puerto Rico this afternoon, with some chance of measurable rainfall across the higher elevations of PR. But, all other areas really have only a slight chance of showers, expecting mainly fair weather today, and that is including the USVI. For tonight into Friday, an area of higher moisture moves in, and scattered showers could start moving in very early Friday across the local waters, USVI, and eastern PR. Once again, locally induced showers could occur on Friday afternoon across PR, but this time a larger coverage area is possible, with portions of the interior and Luquillo Mountain Range expected to see scattered showers. The chances of thunderstorms appear to be slightly lower on Friday, as the upper low moves further west and to the north of Cuba, which will limit its influence in the local weather. The USVI will observe mainly fair weather, with brief showers, on Friday. A similar pattern to Friday is expected on Saturday, especially for the morning hours, but the latest guidance is suggesting an area of much deeper moisture moving in on Saturday afternoon, likely associated with the current Tropical Depression Eleven. This makes the forecast uncertain because the location of this plume of moisture will be highly dependent on the overall organization and track of this system, which has uncertainty as well. That said, it is likely that moisture will increase and so will the shower activity late Saturday into Sunday.

LONG TERM. Sunday through Friday .

Conditions for the weekend and into early next week are highly dependent on the fate of Tropical Depression Eleven. This system is still expected to strengthen into a tropical storm, but there is still uncertainty with regards to its strength. Furthermore, the track of the system is fairly dependent on the strength, with a stronger storm more likely to track further north. Either way, this cyclone is not expected to have direct impacts on the area, but it will certainly provide plenty of indirect ones. Model guidance, especially the GFS, has become increasingly keen on the development of a dry slot between the cyclone and its parent wave. This dry slot has the potential to reverse expectations for Sunday, depending on location and size. Some showers will be seen on Sunday regardless, due to local effects and diurnal heating; a dry slot could inhibit this activity, while any moisture associated with the cyclone or the wave pushing over the area would enhance activity, as one might generally expect. Given that the depression has struggled to become more organized and stronger, the potential for a weaker system slightly to the south still cannot be wholly discounted, in which case a dry slot is not likely to be as prominent. All of this really just to say that Sunday's forecast is still up in the air a bit, with substantial uncertainties. Monday is a similar story. The GFS has been trending hard towards drier conditions over the local islands again on Monday. But to really belabor the point, there are uncertainties with respect to the Tropical Depression that could lead to significant changes in expectations for Monday, in effectively the same manner as for Sunday. Some moisture from the wave is likely, at least, to make its way into the area Monday, which is likely to bring increasing afternoon showers and thunderstorms, and more widespread passing showers overnight, with the potential for isolated thunderstorms.

Behind the wave, a large disorganized disturbance will bring patches of moisture to the region, increasingly so by Tuesday night. This will help to sustain a typical pattern across the local islands, with afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially in western Puerto Rico, and passing showers overnight and into the morning, mostly in the east.

During midweek, the effects of another tropical wave are likely to be seen over the area, as it passes by to the south. The bulk of the moisture is forecast to stay generally south of the islands, but increasing moisture is still likely. As such, showers are likely to be more widespread and slightly more vigorous. A patch of dry air will sweep into the region behind the wave for Thursday. There will remain sufficient moisture to support some of the typical shower activity, but it is likely to be somewhat inhibited.

And, for the end of the workweek, yet another tropical wave is forecast to approach the region. Conditions aloft are forecast to become a bit more favorable for convection, as well, with an upper- level trough stretching over the area from the east, as well as a weak trough in the mid-latitudes. Widespread and vigorous shower activity is expected associated with this wave.

AVIATION.

Fair weather across the local area and prevailing VFR are expected today. Saharan dust could cause some haze, but VIS is expected to be P6SM. Winds will increase to around 15kt with higher gusts from the east to ENE with sea breeze variations starting after 13/13Z.

MARINE.

Winds up to 20 knots are expected for the local waters, with seas up to 6 feet possible, especially in the offshore waters. Tropical Depression Eleven continues its march across the tropical Atlantic, but remains well east of the area, by more than 1000 nautical miles. This system is forecast to become a tropical storm today, and then make its way past the area well to the north, by a couple hundred miles north of the local islands. Its effects are likely to be felt in portions of the local waters, however, most notably in the offshore Atlantic waters, where there is the potential for hazardous conditions over the weekend.

At the local beaches, there is a moderate risk of rip currents at most beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and St. Croix today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 90 80 88 79 / 10 20 30 40 STT 91 81 91 79 / 20 20 30 30

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . None. VI . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM . JA LONG TERM . CRS PUBLIC DESK . 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 0 mi47 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 82°F 84°F1014.2 hPa
41053 - San Juan, PR 1 mi65 min ESE 9.7 G 14 83°F 84°F4 ft1012.9 hPa (-0.4)
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 35 mi80 min NE 4.1 81°F 1015 hPa74°F
41056 37 mi65 min ENE 12 G 14 83°F 85°F3 ft1013 hPa (-0.0)
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 43 mi47 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 85°F1014.3 hPa
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 45 mi47 min 82°F 86°F1013.9 hPa
42085 - Southeast of Ponce, PR 46 mi65 min ENE 16 G 19 84°F 85°F4 ft1012.2 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for San Juan, PR
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for San Juan, La Puntilla, San Juan Bay, Puerto Rico
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Boca De Cangrejos, Isla Verde, San Juan, Puerto Rico
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Boca De Cangrejos
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:53 AM AST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:20 AM AST     0.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:05 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:06 AM AST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:16 PM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:46 PM AST     1.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.80.80.80.70.60.40.30.10.10.10.30.50.70.91.11.31.31.21.10.90.80.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.