Saturday, January23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Keokea, HI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:11PM Friday January 22, 2021 9:02 PM HST (07:02 UTC) Moonrise 1:25PMMoonset 1:54AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 334 Pm Hst Fri Jan 22 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 4 feet.
Saturday..North winds to 30 knots. Wind waves 4 feet.
Saturday night..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Sunday..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Scattered showers.
Sunday night..Northeast winds to 30 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Monday..Northeast winds to 30 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Scattered showers.
Monday night..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..North winds to 25 knots becoming northeast 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 334 Pm Hst Fri Jan 22 2021
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. High far northeast of the area will support strong to near gale force winds tonight. The high will strengthen over the weekend into early next week with trade winds becoming stronger statewide. A large northwest swell will move down the island chain over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Keokea, HI
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location: 20.67, -156.34     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXHW60 PHFO 230640 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 840 PM HST Fri Jan 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. Strong and gusty trade winds will become especially strong over the weekend, delivering passing clouds and showers, some briefly heavy, mainly dampening windward areas. More widespread rainfall may develop early next week as winds remain strong and shift to the southeast.

DISCUSSION. Windy and locally wet trade wind weather will prevail through the weekend, with most clouds and showers focused over windward areas. The strong trades will blow showers leeward on the smaller islands, leading to prime rainbow weather as leeward areas should see ample amounts of sunshine. Strong winds will shift to the southeast early next week, increasing the potential for widespread cloudiness and rainfall starting on Sunday over the Big Island, spreading to the other islands Monday and Tuesday, then diminishing after mid-week. A Flood Potential Outlook (ESFHFO) has been issued to bring attention to the potential for widespread rainfall.

After a relatively dry day statewide, satellite and radar data show an increased amount of showery and stable low clouds immediately upstream of the islands from Maui to Kauai, being driven quickly westward by a 1034 mb surface high centered to the distant NE. Low- level moisture extends as high as 10 thousand feet, due to the presence of weak troughing in the mid- and upper-levels, which has led to a weakened subsidence inversion. This will lead to an increase in overnight showers, mainly windward. While fewer clouds lie upstream of the Big Island, orographic forcing will likely drive the formation of a few showers over the windward slopes. Meanwhile, most leeward communities will remain mostly dry.

Through the weekend, mid-level temperatures will remain cooler than normal, and strong trade winds will strengthen as the high to the distant NE is reinforced Saturday and Sunday, reaching a central pressure over 1040 mb. A Wind Advisory is in effect for a large portion of the area in anticipation of the strengthening winds.

The development of a deep-layer low to the distant W and NW of the islands is expected to cause the winds to veer to the SE late in the weekend, while an associated moisture convergence band extending SE from the low creeps towards the islands from the S. Latest guidance indicates this band will move over portions of the islands from late Sunday into Wednesday - bringing PWAT close to 2", layered cloudiness, and widespread rainfall. Deep moisture and modest instability are expected, so the chance of thunderstorms appears too low to mention thus far. A drying trend is generally expected thereafter as the band shifts W of the area. High pressure to the distant NE will continue to support locally strong trade winds.

AVIATION. Breezy to locally strong trades will continue through the forecast period. Frequent windward showers will occasionally drift leeward during this time, though intensity will remain limited owing to lacking moisture quality and a rather stout inversion per this afternoon's 00z Lihue sounding. The potential exception will be windward Maui where potential for AIRMET Sierra will be monitored through tonight given the improved organization demonstrated by the upstream stratocu field. The trade inversion will then begin to lift and weaken on Saturday afternoon in response to an approaching trough, a trend that will accelerate into late Saturday evening. A greater coverage of windward shower activity accompanied by a higher probability for MVFR will characterize the tail end of the forecast period.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate mechanical lee turbulence, upper turb between FL200 and FL300, and areas of strong surface winds.

MARINE. A surface high far northeast of the area is generating moderate to locally strong trade winds. The high will strengthen Saturday, increasing trade winds across the entire area through the first part of next week. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all coastal waters for strong to near gale force trade winds as well as building seas from the trade wind swell and a large west- northwest swell.

NDBC buoy 51101 is finally registering long-period energy from an incoming west-northwest swell, so forerunners should arrive tonight for Kauai, by early morning for Oahu, and later in the morning for Maui. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) has been issued for exposed north and west facing shores of the smaller islands starting tomorrow morning. This swell is expected to peak Saturday with an 18 second period with surf potentially approaching warning level. The more westerly direction of this swell will allow west facing shores of the Big Island to experience advisory level surf, likely later in the day Saturday. Swell and surf will lower gradually Sunday and Monday, then become rather small for this time of year on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Trades will strengthen this weekend, resulting in rough, short- period surf gradually rising tonight. An HSA has been issued for exposed east facing shores starting tomorrow morning and may need to be extended as strong trades persist for several days.

Small, mainly background, southerly swells are expected over the next several days. A small bump in south-southwest surf is expected to gradually fill in Monday, peak Monday night and Tuesday, then lower Wednesday through Thursday.

HYDROLOGY. For the National Weather Service in Honolulu to issue a Flood Potential Outlook (ESFHFO), it needs to be determined that a >50% chance of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will develop in the next 2 to 4 days, with the event expected to affect two or more counties for at least 2 days. These criteria are purposely stringent to prevent an over-issuance of this product, but the consistency in recent model guidance gives increased confidence that a heavy rain threat will develop late Sunday over the Big Island, spread to the other islands Monday and Tuesday, then gradually diminish after mid- week. With this in mind, a Flood Potential Outlook has been issued.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai Leeward-Kauai Mountains-Oahu South Shore-Oahu Koolau-Olomana-Waianae Mountains- Molokai Windward-Lanai Makai-Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Windward Haleakala-Leeward Haleakala-South Big Island-Big Island North and East-Kohala-Big Island Interior.

High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM HST Sunday for East facing shores of Kauai Oahu Molokai Maui Big Island.

High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM HST Sunday for North and West facing shores of Niihau Oahu Molokai Big Island.

High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM HST Sunday for North facing shores of Maui.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian waters.



DISCUSSION . Birchard AVIATION . JVC MARINE . TS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KLIH1 - 1615680 - Kahului Bay, Maui, HI 17 mi45 min ENE 16 G 21 73°F 76°F1017.2 hPa
51205 24 mi37 min 77°F8 ft
51213 36 mi37 min 78°F3 ft
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 88 mi37 min 77°F9 ft

Wind History for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kahului, Kahului Airport, HI17 mi69 minNNE 17 G 2410.00 miFair74°F64°F71%1017.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PHOG

Wind History from HOG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE10NE10NE12NE12NE13NE11E11NE9NE11NE9NE8NE13
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2 days agoCalmSE4SE6S4SE35CalmNE3E7NE5NE5NE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Makena, Maui Island, Hawaii
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Makena
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:44 AM HST     1.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:46 AM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:04 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:19 AM HST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:35 AM HST     0.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:05 PM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:30 PM HST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:11 PM HST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.71.61.41.20.90.80.60.60.60.60.60.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.20.40.81.11.5

Tide / Current Tables for Kihei, Maui (Hawaii)
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Kihei
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:57 AM HST     2.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:46 AM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:04 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:55 AM HST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:27 PM HST     0.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:05 PM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:56 PM HST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:11 PM HST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.121.71.310.80.60.60.60.70.80.90.90.80.50.30.1-00.10.30.71.11.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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