Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 7:40AM||Sunset 8:26PM||Monday August 26, 2019 1:50 AM CDT (06:50 UTC)||Moonrise 1:38AM||Moonset 3:22PM||Illumination 19%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe-Guerra, TXHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus64 kbro 260551 aab|
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
1251 am cdt Mon aug 26 2019
Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
Aviation Light south-southeast winds with a few passing mid to
high level clouds prevail across the area early this morning.
ExpectVFR conditions for the next 24 hours as mid level ridging
builds into the region. Light southeast to south winds overnight
will quickly increase by late morning with some gusts around 25
knots in the afternoon.
Prev discussion issued 835 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
discussion... Once again this evening, convection fired into
fairly robust clusters of strong to severe storms, with the most
intense causing wind damage in western willacy county where radar
was estimating 70+ mph winds as the microburst surged through. That
was the second act of a tornadic mini-supercell in western kenedy
county with eerie similarities to june 24th, the "sequel" to the
2018 great flood. That's where the similarities ended,
fortunately, as plume and push of very dry mid level air won the
battle... And will set the stage for continued heat (and a likely
new august monthly heat record for much of the rgv) for much of
the upcoming week, along with largely rain-free weather.
That rain-free trend begins overnight... Based on the "worked over"
atmosphere this evening and the filtering of the deeper dry air
later tonight. Given these trends, have reduced precipition
gradually this evening, and cut off completely by 10 pm - with the
main leftovers "debris" stratiform rain in the lower valley
through the western gulf.
No changes for Monday... But as previously mentioned the heat will
surge in low level south to even southwesterly (off the deck) flow
with thicknesses well above average. Plenty of surface rh as well
so advisories are looking more likely... And would not surprise if
readings edge over 115 for several hours and require warnings
particularly across the rgv if mixing of drier air higher up can't
erode the surface dewpoints enough. Stay tuned.
No further changes... Digital forecasts have been published and
text products to follow shortly.
Update - 52 bsg
aviation... Apologies for the late discussion on the 00z forecast
but elected to combine overall discussion into one based on
gridded forecast changes as well as tracking following up with the
strong severe thunderstorms for a few hours earlier. After
adding convection into the tafs through 8 pm, overnight will see
anvil cirrus for several hours which should become scattered after
midnight. Surface winds were disrupted by the convection but will
come back to a less than 10 knot average overnight. Could see
patchy MVFR conditions but expect only very short periods of
ceiling if at all.
As the aforementioned atmospheric dry air spreads south on Monday,
forecast shifts to a wind-cast as atmospheric rh values drop
noticeably. This should keep clouds to few-scattered MVFR cumulus
all day. South to southeast winds will pick up quickly by mid to
late morning and a pretty gusty afternoon is likely with sustained
winds edging to 20 knots or so as thermal trough enhances the
prev discussion... Issued 322 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
short term (now through Monday night): another round of showers and
thunderstorms is underway, as a weak mid-level trough persists
across the western gulf and the diurnal seabreeze develops just
inland. Radar imagery indicates numerous convection across brooks
and kenedy counties, as well as the lower rgv. High-resolution
convective models are in pretty good agreement with this convection
expanding and moving gradually west-southwestward across deep south
texas through the evening. The hrrr in particular has been fairly
consistent, showing a few stronger cells possible. Though a
marginally-severe storm cannot be ruled out, heavy rain will be the
main threat this evening. 12z kbro sounding from this morning
measured record-level moisture, with precipitable water values of
2.41 inches. This will undoubtedly lead to locally heavy downpours|
with torrential rainfall rates. Most of the region is under drought
conditions, however, any rainfall rates exceeding 1 to 2 inches per
hour would cause some flooding issued in low-lying and urban areas.
Tonight into Monday, the mid-level trough will pivot northeastward
away from the region. Drier air will then filter back in, keeping
rain chances low the rest of the period. The heat will continue with
mid-level heights around 591 to 592dam along with surface dew points
in the mid to upper 70s across the rgv. This will lead to heat
indices exceeding 110 for much of the area and up to 115 across the
inland coastal counties and lower rgv. Therefore, another heat
advisory will be likely tomorrow.
Long term (Tuesday through Sunday): latest nwp guidance remains
rather consistent with previous forecast through the long-term,
with perhaps some changes in sight by later next weekend. On
Tuesday, 500-mb high center will lie roughly near elp, with ridge
axis extending into the western gulf of mexico. The center of this
subtropical high is progged to drift gradually westward through
Friday, before drifting northward next weekend. This will maintain
rather hot and humid conditions through Thursday, with only very
slight (silent) rain chances. Should note that the ECMWF still
holds the ridging somewhat stronger vs. The GFS during this
period. Will continue to lean in the ecm's direction, per
continuity with previous forecast.
With little change in guidance, both temps and pop's were left
largely alone for this package. Still looks like a heat advisory
may be required on Tuesday, with heat indices reaching into the
110-114 degree range across much of the cwa. Thereafter, slowly
receding heights and gradually backing weakening winds (south of a
front stalled out over east northeast texas) should take a little
edge off of the heat, with temps closer to climo norms by around
For Friday, and perhaps more so into next weekend, another
weakness aloft develops with the high center well off to the
northwest. This should allow column rh to deepen, with a slight
chance of sea-breeze showers and storms on Friday, increasing to a
chance for next Saturday and Sunday. 12z run of ecm appears to
have come into better agreement with GFS on this, after taking a
quick look. Speaking of the ecm (and looking way ahead), last
night's 00z run wanted to bring a frontal boundary, with plenty of
moisture, through the area around labor day (02 sep). 12z run
brings a tropical circulation of some sort into the western gulf
from the east around this time. So confidence isn't especially
high beyond Saturday. Have trended pop's up to around 30% in this
timeframe for now, though.
Marine (now through Monday night): the pressure gradient has
tightened a bit today as pressure decreases across the tx panhandle,
leading to stronger southeast winds along the bay today. Small craft
will need to exercise caution the rest of the afternoon and into
tonight as winds remain elevated. Moderate winds are expected again
on Monday along with low to moderate seas across the gulf waters,
though thunderstorm chances will quickly diminish through Monday and
Tuesday through Saturday: still anticipating moderate-to-fresh
south-to-southeasterly breezes and generally moderate seas around
4 feet on Tuesday, courtesy of an enhanced pressure gradient.
Small craft exercise caution wording will likely be needed Tuesday
daytime on the laguna madre and perhaps on the nearshore gulf
waters as well. The pressure gradient will then become weaker
through the rest of the period, as a front stalls across north
texas, resulting in light to modest southeasterly winds and
favorable seas. At times, rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
will be possible starting Wednesday, generally offshore, then
expanding to all of the coastal waters beginning Thursday. There
could be locally higher winds and seas in any storms.
Bro watches warnings advisories
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Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (2,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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