Saturday, January16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hickam Housing, HI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 6:11PM Friday January 15, 2021 10:55 PM HST (08:55 UTC) Moonrise 9:27AMMoonset 8:58PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ116 Kaiwi Channel- 946 Pm Hst Fri Jan 15 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through early Sunday morning...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. North swell 8 feet increasing to northwest 10 feet after midnight. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Northwest swell 17 feet increasing to 19 feet in the afternoon. Isolated showers through the day.
Saturday night..East winds 10 knots veering south after midnight. Wind waves 5 feet. Northwest swell 19 feet decreasing to 14 feet after midnight. Scattered showers.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Northwest swell 12 feet decreasing to 10 feet in the afternoon. Scattered showers.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 knots becoming north 20 knots after midnight. Wind waves 5 feet. Northwest swell 9 feet. Occasional heavy showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. Northwest swell 11 feet increasing to 14 feet in the afternoon. Heavy showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. Northwest swell 14 feet. Scattered showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 feet. North swell 10 to 12 feet. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..Winds variable less than 10 knots becoming northeast 10 knots in the evening, then becoming variable less than 10 knots after midnight. Wind waves 3 feet. North swell 7 to 9 feet. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 946 Pm Hst Fri Jan 15 2021
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A ridge of high pressure will linger near the islands through Saturday night. A giant northwest swell will rapidly build tonight into Saturday, then decline on Sunday. A strong front is expected to move down the island chain late Sunday and Monday. The front will likely stall over the eastern half of the state initially, with associated moisture drifting west later in the week as the front gradually dissipates.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hickam Housing, HI
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location: 21.31, -157.91     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXHW60 PHFO 160656 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 856 PM HST Fri Jan 15 2021

SYNOPSIS. Although mostly dry conditions will continue into the weekend, a few showers near and along a diminishing front will remain possible around Kauai through the day Saturday. Rainfall chances will quickly rise through the day Sunday as the winds shift out of the south to southwest ahead of a stronger cold front approaching. This front will quickly advance down the island chain Sunday night, then stall around the Big Island Monday through Tuesday. Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible along ahead of this front. Cool and breezy northerly winds are expected following the frontal passage for the western end of the state early next week. Trade winds may return late next week.

DISCUSSION. Short-term guidance has initialized well with the current pattern and depicts mostly dry conditions with light to moderate trade winds continuing across much of the area through Saturday. The exception will be over and around Kauai where showery conditions will remain possible due to a diminishing frontal boundary that has stalled nearby.

A transition period is expected Saturday night through Sunday as a cold front associated with a gale currently north of Midway approaches. Low-level winds will quickly shift out of the south and southwest ahead of this approaching boundary - potentially increasing to moderate levels over and around Kauai/Oahu later Sunday. Increasing instability and deep layer forcing for ascent out ahead of this front and its attendant shortwave trough aloft will be enough to trigger spotty pre-frontal showers Sunday afternoon over Kauai and Oahu.

The cold front is forecast to reach Kauai late Sunday, then move down the island chain Sunday night through Monday. The front will be accompanied by a period of showers. Model reflectivities are in decent agreement and depict the leading edge of the main line of showers along the front reaching Kauai late Sunday afternoon, then to Oahu and Maui County Sunday night. Lowering upper heights combined with 40-50 kt 0-6 km shear ahead of this upper trough will support a few thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. The one limiting factor with regard to the strength of these storms could be the phasing between the upper trough and deep moisture axis along the front (appears to be a lag in the latest model cycle). If these were to align, a few strong storms can't be ruled out - especially over the coastal waters Sunday night.

Breezy northerly winds and cool conditions will follow the frontal passage across the western end of the state early next week. Guidance reflects this and depicts dewpoints dipping into the low 50s for Kauai and Oahu.

There remains subtle differences in the global models on how far east the front will progress before stalling. The GFS moves the front to just east of the Big Island on Tuesday while the ECMWF has the front stalling over the Big Island. Either way, the Big Island and possibly east Maui will remain rather wet on into Wednesday, which could result in localized flooding concerns.

Winter weather conditions can't be ruled out over the Big Island summits Monday night into midweek due to a combination of the deep moisture axis associated with the front hanging up or stalling and cold temperatures aloft arriving with the shortwave trough.

As we head on into Thursday, high pressure will build in northeast of the area resulting in strengthening trade winds. Moisture associated with the frontal boundary is then forecast to move back westward likely providing for a wet trade wind pattern to set up across the state. With the differences in the long range models continuing, changes to the forecast our possible next week.

AVIATION. A weakening front located northwest of Kauai will continue to approach the islands this evening. The close proximity of this feature is keeping a light wind regime over the western end of the state, with weak low-level trade flow in the vicinity of the eastern islands. Low clouds and showers ahead of the front, which is expected to stall later tonight, will primarily affect Kauai through early Saturday morning. This will likely result in periods of MVFR ceilings / visibilities on Kauai. Elsewhere, expect low clouds and isolated showers along some of the windward coasts and slopes of the islands east of Kauai. This may result in brief periods of MVFR conditions along some windward sections on these islands. Otherwise, expect primarily VFR conditions to prevail through Saturday morning elsewhere on the islands from Oahu to the Big Island.

On Saturday, the front is expected to dissipate northwest of Kauai. The weak trade wind flow will continue to transport some low clouds and a few showers into windward sides of the islands. But VFR conditions will again likely prevail over most areas Saturday afternoon.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect. We will monitor conditions on Kauai in case AIRMET Sierra is required for mountain obscuration later tonight or on Saturday.

MARINE. In summary, an active winter pattern this holiday weekend with giant surf on Saturday, and a potent cold front arriving late on Sunday.

The largest NW swell of the winter season so far will rapidly build overnight into Saturday, with peak surf heights of 40 to 50 feet (with potentially higher sets) expected along exposed shores, where a High Surf Warning is in effect. Long-period forerunners (around 26 seconds) are arriving at NDBC buoys 51001/51101 to the NW of Kauai, indicative of the powerful swell's arrival, although the swell (as is typical of late) is running a little behind WaveWatch III guidance. After peaking Saturday and Saturday night, the swell will gradually diminish Sunday, but a new NW swell arriving into Monday will likely push surf to warning levels once again.

In the meantime, the giant NW swell has also prompted the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for all waters except Maalaea Bay as seas build rapidly, and a Marine Weather Statement, which is highlighting the potential for surges and significant wave action in and near exposed harbors and their entrances. Due to the period and size of the NW swell, some (much reduced) swell will wrap into select S and E facing shores.

A surface ridge is near and E of Kauai, while a weak and dissipating front is nearly stationary just NW of Kauai, leading to light winds over Kauai waters, and light to moderate trades elsewhere. The forecast anticipates the ridge moving N overnight as the front dissipates, leading to a temporary increase in E to SE winds on Saturday, potentially becoming locally strong. The ridge will move S over the islands again on Saturday night as what is expected to be a vigorous cold front approaches. The ridge will move SE of the Big Island Sunday and Sunday night, leading to a period of light to moderate SW winds, until the front's passage ushers in near gale force N winds Sunday night. The front will bring the potential for locally heavy showers and thunderstorms, with the front expected to stall over the islands early next week. A strong trough aloft is expected Monday and Tuesday, maintaining the potential for thunderstorms along the stalled frontal boundary.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Niihau-Kauai Windward-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Oahu Koolau-Molokai-Maui Windward West-Maui Central Valley-Windward Haleakala.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Big Island North and East.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM HST Sunday for Maui County Leeward Waters-Pailolo Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel- Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters.



DISCUSSION . Gibbs AVIATION . Houston MARINE . Birchard


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OOUH1 - 1612340 - Honolulu, HI 2 mi55 min ESE 1 G 1.9 76°F 79°F1018.3 hPa (+0.9)
51211 3 mi55 min 78°F2 ft
MOKH1 - 1612480 - Mokuoloe, HI 11 mi79 min E 5.1 G 7 76°F 78°F1018.2 hPa
51212 13 mi59 min 78°F4 ft
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 14 mi59 min 78°F6 ft
51207 14 mi59 min 78°F5 ft
51210 14 mi59 min 78°F5 ft
51201 - Waimea Bay, HI (106) 27 mi48 min 78°F6 ft

Wind History for Honolulu, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daniel K Inouye International Airport, HI3 mi62 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds73°F63°F71%1017.8 hPa
Oahu, Kalaeloa Airport, HI9 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair70°F62°F76%1018.9 hPa
Kaneohe, Marine Corps Air Station, HI12 mi2 hrsE 310.00 miA Few Clouds76°F68°F77%1016.7 hPa
Wheeler Air Force Base / Oahu, HI13 mi59 minNW 410.00 miFair65°F63°F92%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PHNL

Wind History from HNL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N4N3N3N3NW4CalmCalmNW3NW3N44NW7CalmSW11SW11SW10SW9E6NE7NE6N4N4Calm
1 day agoNE4NE7CalmCalmNW3NW5CalmCalmE8NE5E7E6E6SE10SE12SE11SE11S8S6S4S4SE3NE3NE4
2 days agoSW9SW10W8W7W7W7W5W7CalmCalmCalmNW4S6SW11SW12SW13SW11S10SW8S5NE4NE5N7N4

Tide / Current Tables for Honolulu, Oahu (Hawaii)
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Honolulu
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:25 AM HST     2.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:11 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:05 AM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:44 PM HST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:11 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:08 PM HST     0.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:52 PM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:56 PM HST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.40.81.21.61.92.12.11.91.51.10.70.40.20.10.20.40.60.80.80.80.70.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Moku o Loe, Kaneohe Bay Oahu Island, Hawaii
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Moku o Loe
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:01 AM HST     2.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:11 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:05 AM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:30 PM HST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:44 PM HST     0.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:11 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:52 PM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:42 PM HST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.41.82.12.22.11.91.51.10.80.50.40.30.50.60.80.90.90.90.80.70.60.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.