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Marine Weather and Tides Haena, HI Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:46AM

Sunset 6:40PM

Sunday March 7, 2021 11:42 AM HST (21:42 UTC)

Moonrise 2:48AM

Moonset 1:44PM

Illumination 32%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Haena, HI

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Area Discussion for -

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FXHW60 PHFO 071945 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 945 AM HST Sun Mar 7 2021

SYNOPSIS. Increasingly cloudy and showery weather is expected for the upcoming week as an upper level disturbance interacts with tropical moisture moving in from the southeast. Breezy trade winds will give way to lighter winds by mid-week as a surface trough moves over the islands.

DISCUSSION. Breezy trade winds will persist for the next couple of days, potentially weakening during the second half of the upcoming week as a surface trough moves over the islands. The trough will bring an increase in deep-layer moisture starting Monday over the Big Island and Maui, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall that may become increasingly widespread Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there still remains a significant amount of uncertainty in the forecast, as the strength, location and movement of the trough will strongly dictate winds and weather (and waves) seen in the islands.

A 1038 mb high centered well N of the islands is supporting breezy to locally strong trade winds, while an E-W oriented trough aloft is supporting a moderately unstable island atmosphere while delivering wispy high clouds to the Big Island. Incoming low-level moisture has diminished over the past 24 hours, but radar continues to show scattered moderate rain cores developing over windward slopes of most islands while leeward areas are mostly sunny. While a few windward showers are expected today and tonight, most areas will be drier than they were on Saturday.

A subtle re-organization of the flow aloft over the islands is expected tonight and Monday, leading to increasing mid- and upper- level moisture over Maui and the Big Island. This moisture will spread to the other islands by Tuesday as the trough becomes N-S trough oriented and sharpens W of Kauai. This destabilizing trough aloft is expected to induce the formation of a low-level trough near or E of the islands initially, with the trough then moving W or NW through at least mid-week. Model guidance continues to offer subtle differences in the strength and location of the trough, but these are significant enough to introduce a large amount of uncertainty in most aspects of the forecast.

We are certain that the forecast will need to be fine-tuned as things evolve, and be prepared for potential dramatic changes. If the trough sharpens just E of the islands on Tuesday (per latest GFS), the pressure gradient could tighten to the point that sustained 30-35 mph E/SE winds, and widespread heavy rain, would develop. If the trough is just a little farther to the NE (per latest ECMWF), much lighter winds, and less precipitation, would be expected.

Despite the model differences for Tuesday and beyond, there is growing consensus that deep-layer moisture will increase over the Big Island and Maui starting Monday, spreading to the other islands on Tuesday. A Flash Flood Watch (FFA) for Maui and the Big Island, and a Winter Storm Watch for the Big Island Summits, will likely be issued later today. Generally speaking, the low-level trough will linger near the islands for most of the upcoming week, as will a trough aloft, so a significant drying trend is not anticipated anytime soon, and the FFA will likely include all islands at one point or another.

AVIATION. VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites with some brief periods of MVFR conditions occurring at PHTO in low clouds and shra. Expect these conditions to continue on into the evening hours. There will likely be brief periods of MVFR conditions elsewhere along windward slopes through the evening hours as low clouds interact with island terrain.

AIRMET Tango is currently in effect over and immediately south thru west of mountain ranges on all islands due to low level mechanical turbulence. Little change is expected during the forecast period.

MARINE. A large area of strong surface high pressure located approximately 1,200 nautical miles north of the state will slowly drift southeastward the next few days. This will provide a tight enough pressure gradient back across the islands to support sustained fresh to strong trades through Tuesday morning. This morning's satellite derived winds and offshore buoy observations generally indicate fresh trades surrounding the islands, locally strong through the channels and windward areas. Early week winds may occasionally gust to gale through the notoriously windier channels and bays around Maui County and the waters south of the Big Island. The presence of a vicinity trough of low pressure this week will maintain a higher chance for thunderstorms centered over the eastern half of the state.

Fresh to strong trade winds are producing more agitated seas and increasing wind waves over exposed waters. These wind waves are combined with modest north swells and this will maintain elevated seas. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect through early Monday morning for all Hawaiian waters to account for both strong trades and resultant rough seas. There will likely be an extension to the SCA as strong winds and elevated seas persist through Monday night. The latest numerical model forecast guidance is developing a vicinity trough or low over the area Tuesday or Wednesday and then slowly drags this trough across the state through the week. If this scenario does unfold, the trade flow pattern will be disrupted . locally strengthen winds near the trough axis while providing an overall significant weakening to mid to late week winds. Stay tuned for coastal water forecast updates as this scenario becomes less ambiguous in time.

Persistent fresh to strong trade winds will cause surf to build along east-facing shores through Monday. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) for eastern exposures will likely be issued today for high eastern shore surf beginning tonight through possibly early Tuesday (depending on whether a trough develops or not). Ongoing lower period north swells will continue to decline through the day. Reinforcing small, medium period overlapping north and northwest swells will spread around the islands through mid week. These swells, in tandem with trade wind wave/east swell wrap, will generate medium surf heights along most north and west- facing shorelines through Monday. Diminishing northerly swells will trend north and west shoreline surf down to small heights from Tuesday into next weekend. Small, long period south and southwest swells, along with some trade wrap, will provide enough of background to support near seasonable surf along most south-facing shores through the week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters.



DISCUSSION . Birchard AVIATION . Burke MARINE . Blood

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NWWH1 - 1611400 - Nawiliwili, HI	24 mi	54 min	NE 11 G 13	74°F	79°F		1021.9 hPa

Wind History for Nawiliwili, HI

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NE13 G20

NE12 G19

NE15 G20

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NE16 G21

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NE13 G17

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1 day ago

NE16 G22

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NE20

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NE18 G22

W4 G9

N14 G18

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N11 G14

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N13 G20

NE10 G13

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NE19 G24

NE10 G14

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NE7 G11

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NE15 G21

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NE14 G20

NE12 G16

NE11 G15

NE11 G19

NE13 G17

NE15 G21

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Kekaha, Pacific Missile Test Facility Barking Sands, HI	10 mi	59 min	WSW 4	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	76°F	65°F	69%	1020.7 hPa
Lihue, Lihue Airport, HI	23 mi	49 min	NE 14	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	75°F	64°F	69%	1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PHBK

Wind History from HBK (wind in knots)

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NW6

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N6

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N11 G22

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N15 G25

N21 G27

N24 G31

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NE6

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NE4

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N13

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Tide / Current Tables for Hanalei Bay, Kauai Island, Hawaii

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Tide / Current Tables for Waimea Bay, Kauai Island, Hawaii

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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