Sunday, April5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Key Colony Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:46PM Sunday April 5, 2020 3:52 PM EDT (19:52 UTC) Moonrise 4:19PMMoonset 4:35AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ043 Expires:202004052130;;611210 Fzus52 Kkey 051427 Cwfkey Coastal Waters Forecast For The Florida Keys National Weather Service Key West Fl 1027 Am Edt Sun Apr 5 2020 Florida Bay, Hawk Channel And Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To South Of Dry Tortugas, And The Extreme Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico, Including The Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Gmz042>044-052130- Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1027 Am Edt Sun Apr 5 2020
This afternoon..South winds near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers late near the upper keys.
Tonight..Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers except scattered showers southeast of the upper keys.
Monday..Winds becoming west to northwest near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers.
Monday night..West to northwest near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..Variable winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop.
Wednesday..Mainly west winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas building to 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters becoming a light to moderate chop.
Wednesday night..West to northwest winds decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas subsiding to around 1 foot. NEarshore waters becoming smooth to a light chop.
Thursday and Thursday night..Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Key Colony Beach, FL
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location: 24.7, -81.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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FXUS62 KKEY 051920 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 320 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

SHORT TERM. (Tonight through Tuesday) The models have really changed their tune over the last 2 days by now showing the development of a weak low pressure center along a warm front over South Florida tonight and Monday. The front is currently showing up as a wind shift and a thermal gradient along an east-west line near Lake Okeechobee. The weak low passing to our north and northeast over the next two days will lead to a turn to gentle westerly and then northwesterly winds. This wind transition could very well come with enough low-level convergence to support a few passing weak showers over the Keys late tonight and Monday morning.

As the weak low moves near or off the Southeast Florida coast late Monday, northwest steering flow over the southern peninsula will bring the best chance of a mainland-borne afternoon shower moving out across the Upper Keys. This is reflected with 20-40 PoPs.

As the low weakens and exits into the Bahamas on Tuesday, shower chances will shrink back to just slight chance PoPs over the Upper Keys.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through next Sunday) The extended forecast will feature a transition to some of our first summer-like weather of the year.

A flat upper ridge axis that will be over the Central Gulf from now through Tuesday night will budge eastward across the Eastern Gulf on Wednesday, passing directly across the Keys on Thursday. Meanwhile, an Atlantic surface ridge axis will build west along the north coast of Cuba. The prevalence of high pressure at both the surface and aloft will support a dry forecast from Tuesday night through Saturday. Under large-scale subsidence, Precipitable Water values will fall a little below the seasonal norm by Friday.

Ensemble means show falling pressures over the Western Gulf next Saturday as a broad upper trough digs south through the Plains. Lower pressure should propagate toward the northeast Gulf on Sunday. In response, our low-level flow will become more southerly and then southwesterly. This will really pump up a moister air mass. By Day 7, most guidance shows surface dewpoints climbing to a summer-like 75 degrees, and moderate convective instability will develop. Though larger scale lift should be north of the forecast domain, the seasonal increase in mesoscale sources of lift from seabreeze interactions, along with the more unstable air mass, will support an accompanying mention of thunder with our near-15 PoPs next Sunday.

MARINE. A warm front is developing this afternoon over the Florida Peninsula near Lake Okeechobee. A weak lobe of low pressure will develop along the front over the southern Florida Peninsula on Monday, then move out toward the Bahamas on Tuesday. The low will dissipate on Wednesday. An Atlantic ridge axis will extend westward along the north coast of Cuba on Wednesday night and Thursday, then weaken on Friday. Temperatures will climb under the warm dome of high pressure aloft and light winds. The gridded forecast reflects temperature cracking the 90-degree mark at warmer locations such as Big Pine Key on Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION. VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals. Winds will be backing from S to SE with VCSH possible after 06/00Z. Ceilings will be BKN around FL060 with BKN layered up to FL100. BKN layered conditions should diminish through Monday morning. Possible MVFR BKN ceilings around FL020 after midnight, but lacking confidence in such a complicated forecast scenario. Some model guidance points to another round of VCSH near the end of the forecast period, but due to highly uncertain conditions, will abstain from including any VCSH.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Key West 77 84 76 84 / 10 10 10 - Marathon 76 87 76 86 / 20 20 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GM . None.

Public/Marine/Fire . Haner Aviation/Nowcasts . Chesser Data Collection . SDR

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 1 mi53 min S 8.9 G 13 80°F 81°F1014 hPa (-2.7)
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 5 mi23 min SSE 8.9 G 11 78°F 70°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 24 mi113 min 81°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 24 mi53 min 81°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 27 mi53 min 80°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 29 mi53 min 79°F
BKYF1 32 mi53 min 82°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 32 mi53 min 81°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 32 mi53 min E 5.1 81°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 36 mi53 min 81°F
TBYF1 37 mi53 min 82°F
WWEF1 38 mi113 min 80°F
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL 39 mi53 min SSE 5.1 G 8 83°F 1014.2 hPa (-2.4)
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 41 mi53 min 80°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 41 mi53 min 80°F
CWAF1 42 mi113 min 81°F
LRIF1 42 mi53 min 82°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 43 mi53 min 83°F
NRRF1 45 mi53 min 80°F
SREF1 45 mi53 min 80°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 46 mi113 min 80°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 46 mi113 min 80°F
JBYF1 47 mi53 min 81°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 47 mi53 min 81°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 48 mi113 min 80°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL4 mi60 minSSE 810.00 miFair82°F70°F67%1013.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTH

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE7SE8SE8SE7SE8SE7SE8E7SE7SE7SE7SE7SE8SE8SE8SE7SE6SE7SE8S5S6S6S8
1 day agoSE9SE8E5SE6SE5SE5SE4SE3E4E4E5SE5SE7SE6E5E3E3SE6SE6SE8E6SE7SE6SE7
2 days agoE8E10--6----E5E4E4E3E3SE4SE4SE5E6E3E5E7E8E8SE9SE8SE8SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Boot Key Harbor, Vaca Key, Florida (2)
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Boot Key Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:45 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:01 AM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:36 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:56 PM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0.1-0.100.30.711.31.41.31.10.70.30.10.10.30.71.21.61.921.91.51.1

Tide / Current Tables for Moser Channel (swingbridge), Florida Current
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Moser Channel (swingbridge)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:37 AM EDT     -2.32 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:56 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:56 AM EDT     1.85 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:59 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:07 PM EDT     -2.22 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:12 PM EDT     1.87 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.7-2.2-2.3-1.9-10.11.11.71.81.61-0-1.1-1.9-2.2-2-1.4-0.30.81.61.91.71.20.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.