Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Florida City, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:34PM Friday December 13, 2019 3:17 AM EST (08:17 UTC) Moonrise 7:10PMMoonset 8:16AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ657 Expires:201912131400;;266099 Fzus52 Kmfl 130235 Cwfmfl Coastal Waters Forecast For South Florida National Weather Service Miami Fl 935 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Out To 60 Nm And Gulf Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Out 20 Nm And Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Out 60 Nm...including The Waters Of Biscayne Bay And Lake Okeechobee. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves. Gmz656-657-131400- Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 935 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and southeast 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and east southeast 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of light showers after midnight.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of light showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 932 Pm Cst Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis..A moderate to strong east to northeast flow will persist through this evening. Easterly winds and seas will diminish late tonight and early Friday as the area of low pressure approaches from the south and moves inland along the alabama northwest florida coast by mid to late afternoon. Winds and seas will be locally higher near scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms tonight and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florida City, FL
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location: 25.32, -81.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 130531 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1231 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

Aviation. Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period with some passing showers possible across the East Coast TAF sites. Brief periods of MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible with passing showers. Winds gradually become southwesterly through the period as a cold front approaches the region.

Prev Discussion. /issued 737 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019/

Update . A stationary front over the Lake Okeechobee region will move move slowly northward tonight into Central Florida, as low pressure starts to develop in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. This should allow for some drier air to work into South Florida late tonight from the south leading to a decrease in coverage of showers over the east and west coast metro areas through the evening hours. However, there could still be a few showers in the overnight hours along the east coast metro areas due to the easterly wind flow over South Florida. Therefore, plan on lowering the POPs to isolated coverage along the east coast metro areas for late tonight and removing the POPs over the interior and west coast metro areas after midnight.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned.

Prev Discussion . /issued 327 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019/

Short Term .

Tonight through Saturday night .

A frontal boundary stalled around the Lake Okeechobee region will begin to retreat back northward overnight. Bountiful amounts of moisture remain over the region, allowing for showers to develop and focus over portions of the area including along the east coast metro and potentially the Gulf coast metro areas this afternoon and evening. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two, particularly in areas around the frontal boundary. The focus for most of the convection will remain from the Interstate 75/Alligator Alley/Interstate 595 corridor northward, though overnight into Friday morning the focus will shift back towards the Atlantic coast.

Aloft, a mid-level shortwave trough running ahead of the main trough axis will push across the region tonight into Friday morning which could spur that additional convection referenced in the previous paragraph. Once that has pushed east, the main trough axis begins to advance eastward. Accordingly, the surface frontal boundary will push across the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards the peninsula of Florida on Friday night into Saturday. As the sun rises on Saturday morning, the surface front will be knocking on the door of southern Florida.

With the surface low somewhere along the southern Atlantic coast early Saturday morning and then quickly pushing towards the Mid- Atlantic states, the location of the low and trailing frontal boundary will be important to monitor. If the frontal boundary is able to clear across the peninsula into the Atlantic, drier and cooler air behind it will allow for the weekend to dry out faster. If the boundary stalls or lingers across or close to the peninsula, some portions of Southeast Florida could see some chances of rain. The forecast will feature a slight chance of showers for Saturday afternoon to acknowledge this potential for the forecast to change.

By Saturday night/early Sunday morning, things should begin to dry out and temperatures will begin to decrease. Mid to upper 50s will sneak into the Lake Okeechobee region while upper 50s to around 60 will reach into much of Southwest Florida. The majority of Southeast Florida will remain in the 60s.

Long Term .

Sunday through Monday .

Drier and slightly cooler conditions will continue across the region Sunday into Monday, as high pressure quickly builds over the Southeast CONUS behind the aforementioned cold front. As the surface anticyclone continues sliding eastward, winds will follow suit, swinging out of the east then southeast, effectively increasing available moisture through mid week.

Temperatures will also slowly creep back up across the area as winds increase out of the east. Afternoon temperatures will be near 80 along the east coast and mid 80s across southwestern portions. Evening temperatures will also reflect a gradual warming trend with coldest lows Sunday night in the mid 50s across the Lake region to mid 60s along the east coast. By Monday night, most of the region will experience temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s with the east coast in the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday through Thursday .

The mention of rain then returns to the forecast on Tuesday, ahead of the next cold front, which will begin it's decent down the peninsula. While global models maintain similar timing, they have slowed down a pinch, depicting a frontal passage on Wednesday instead of Tuesday evening. The GFS remains the weaker solution with the front losing it's upper level support shortly after passage, while the ECMWF maintains a more robust, convective boundary. Regardless, scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday ahead of the front through the afternoon and early evening hours on Wednesday.

One concern prior to the front's arrival is the chance of patchy fog early Wednesday morning across South Florida, with isolated areas of fog possible over the interior.

Behind the boundary, the ECMWF unsurprisingly depicts stronger cold air advection and blended guidance has dropped overnight temperatures a degree or two from the previous forecast. However, temperatures are still progged to dip into the upper 40s to low 50s near Lake Okeechobee and low 60s along the east coast early Thursday and Friday morning. Thus, given this is still close to the end of the forecast period, and models differ substantially with the finer details, have maintained a middle of the road solution and will continue to monitor as we get closer in time.

Marine . Hazardous boating conditions will continue over the Atlantic coastal waters requiring a Small Craft Advisory with the arrival of a north swell and winds to around 20 knots. These conditions are expected to peak tonight, then begin to subside on Friday as the swells decrease and the winds veer to the SE and weaken. Generally benign weather is expected for the weekend.

Aviation . A stalled front around Lake Okeechobee will keep convection focused along and north of an FLL-APF line this afternoon. Some Atlantic showers could still sneak into MIA/OPF/TMB. Sub-VFR conditions are possible with convection. Activity should decrease later this evening into the overnight with Atlantic convection flaring back up late overnight into the morning hours.

Beach Forecast . An increasing northerly swell will bring an elevated rip current risk and possibly rough surf to the Atlantic beaches through tonight. This swell will begin to subside on Friday, but an elevated rip current risk may linger through the weekend into early next week for many of the Atlantic beaches.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 79 65 82 61 / 30 30 20 0 Fort Lauderdale 79 68 82 64 / 30 30 10 0 Miami 81 68 83 64 / 30 30 10 0 Naples 80 67 80 60 / 20 30 30 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM . None.

Aviation . 32/MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CWAF1 2 mi137 min 76°F
SREF1 4 mi77 min 75°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 4 mi77 min 75°F
NRRF1 6 mi77 min 75°F
HREF1 7 mi77 min 73°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 7 mi137 min 74°F
WWEF1 8 mi137 min 77°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 8 mi77 min 73°F
LRIF1 8 mi77 min 77°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 11 mi77 min 75°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 16 mi77 min 78°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 16 mi77 min 76°F
BKYF1 17 mi77 min 77°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 18 mi77 min 76°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 18 mi77 min 74°F
TBYF1 20 mi77 min 78°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 20 mi77 min 77°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 21 mi77 min 77°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 23 mi77 min 77°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 23 mi77 min NE 8.9 78°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 26 mi137 min 79°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 27 mi137 min 78°F
JBYF1 27 mi77 min 77°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 27 mi77 min 77°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 28 mi77 min 77°F
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 29 mi77 min 76°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 30 mi137 min 77°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 31 mi77 min 78°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 31 mi77 min 77°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 32 mi77 min 77°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 33 mi137 min 77°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 33 mi137 min 77°F
MDKF1 34 mi77 min 79°F
THRF1 36 mi137 min 76°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 42 mi47 min E 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 78°F1016.3 hPa
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 48 mi27 min E 8.9 G 9.9 78°F 69°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL36 mi81 minE 8 G 219.00 miLight Rain74°F68°F84%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHST

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N3NW3CalmNW7N6NW9NW6N6E8E9E10E8E8E7E7E6E8E6E6E4E6E8
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1 day agoCalmCalmE3SE3E4E9SE8E10E10E8E8SE8E8E5NE3NE3CalmNE4NE3N3N5N7N5NE6
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Tide / Current Tables for Shark River entrance, Florida
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Shark River entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:51 AM EST     5.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:16 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 08:57 AM EST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:27 PM EST     3.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:11 PM EST     1.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.65.95.64.93.92.61.30.2-0.5-0.7-0.20.71.82.93.53.53.22.72.11.61.41.72.74

Tide / Current Tables for Flamingo, Florida Bay, Florida
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Flamingo
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:59 AM EST     3.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:15 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:39 AM EST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:35 PM EST     1.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:53 PM EST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.42.32.93.23.12.82.31.71.10.50-0.3-0.30.10.81.41.81.91.81.51.20.90.70.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.