Tuesday, September29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Homestead Base, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:11PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 12:17 AM EDT (04:17 UTC) Moonrise 5:20PMMoonset 4:11AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 933 Pm Edt Mon Sep 28 2020
Rest of tonight..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Thunderstorms likely in the evening. Showers likely through the night. Chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday through Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 933 Pm Edt Mon Sep 28 2020
Synopsis..Shower and Thunderstorm activity will be the primary concern into early week. Some of the showers and storms may bring locally gusty conditions and possibly even a few waterspouts. A cold front approaching the waters mid week could lead to increasing shower and Thunderstorm chances. There is some uncertainty with the front's progress which could impact the marine forecast later this week.
Gulf stream hazards..None the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 26, 2020 at 1200 utc... 9 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 13 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 9 nautical miles northeast of lake worth. 7 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homestead Base, FL
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location: 25.44, -80.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 282345 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 745 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

Aviation. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds will become light and variable across the region during the overnight hours. These winds will then increase out of the south southeast by the middle of Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday especially over the interior sections. MVFR or IFR conditons are possible in and around any shower or thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Update. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening especially across the interior sections. With plenty of lower level moisture remaining in place, some shower and thunderstorm activity could linger during the overnight hours especially along the coast and in the Atlantic and Gulf waters as well. Winds will generally be light and variable through the overnight hours. On Tuesday, winds will start to shift around to more of a southerly direction as a cold front moves closer to South Florida from the north. As the front gets closer, this will help to enhance the chances for showers and thunderstorms especially across the interior and Lake Okeechobee region during the afternoon hours. High temperatures on Tuesday will generally range from the upper 80s across the east coast to the lower 90s across the interior sections.

Prev Discussion. /issued 416 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020/

Short Term (Rest of Today through Tuesday) . Light flow and abundant moisture (precipitable water > 2 in) are a bad combination for concerns about excessive rainfall today. The Weather Prediction Center has added most of southern Florida into their marginal risk of excessive rainfall for today and tonight. High pressure aloft is combining with surface Atlantic high pressure to limit general flow. Plentiful boundaries are evident this afternoon to act as a focus for convection and source of lift. Instability thanks to earlier insolation is available for convection to tap into. Shear is modest and localized near boundary interactions. Some convection could linger through the overnight, particularly along the coast and the waters.

A surface front will push closer to the region on Tuesday in association with a mid-level trough digging across the eastern two- thirds of the United States into the Gulf of Mexico. As the influence of the front gets closer, the may be pre-frontal troughs and ripples in the flow aloft that allow spurts of convection to flourish starting in the Gulf and over Southwest Florida before activity increases through the day on Tuesday as the influence of those features overspread the area. Temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s again in the afternoon though some morning rains and cloud cover could keep things a few degrees cooler.

Long Term (Wednesday through Monday) .

Wednesday

A deep, vigorous short-wave trough and attendant frontal cyclone will transverse the southeastern Gulf states, likely approaching South Florida by early to mid-day Wednesday. Modest synoptic scale forcing in association with the short-wave trough appears to develop a convergent, cyclonic low-level mass response in the near-surface wind profile. Ahead of the main cold front, it appears possible that discrete and/or multicell structures may develop, owing to this enhanced boundary-induced convergence. Cold pools from these storms may congeal and develop into linear convective modes, which may be further enhanced by decreasing stability in association with the diurnal heating cycle. Therefore, with forecast PWI (precipitable water indices) in the 2.2-2.4 inches range, and deeper synoptic forcing resulting in enhanced bulk shear profiles, localized heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are the main concerns to monitor with the approaching front. Mesoscale factors will highly dictate the further development (or suppression) of this potential storm event, which is of lower predictability at this time.

A distinct NW/N wind shift is apparent as the cold front approaches. This may provide mild relief in the form of slightly lower maximum temperatures, however partially offset by daytime heating and the frontal boundary modification (temperature gradients reduced) as it reaches southerly subtropical latitudes.

Thursday through Saturday

The aforementioned frontal boundary undergoes modification at warmer latitudes, becoming more of a quasi-stationary front. Broad, low- level convergence takes place ahead of this boundary, allowing plentiful moisture (2.2-2.4 ins) to congeal over much of South Florida. With the right entrance region of a 250 hPa jet streak draped over the South Florida and several 500 hPa vorticity maxima transversing the region, the synoptic environment appears favorable for a widespread rainfall event to unfold. Furthermore a noticeable coastal convergence zone appears to manifest over the Atlantic coastline, which may further act to focus convective activity over this area. While this event is further out in the forecast period, prognostic solutions are trending towards this type of setup. There is plenty of uncertainty however, as models show a high QPF gradient between the Atlantic coastal waters/metro region. Furthermore, a large disparity exists between the low-end and high-end rainfall amounts for reasonable best-case/worst-case scenarios. Nevertheless, the primary period of concern as of now for an areal flood threat appears to be Thursday evening through Saturday morning.

Sunday through Monday

Disparate solutions in the mid/long range model solutions are apparent, as the GFS shows the western Atlantic ridge building back in over the region and suppressing widespread convective development with a drier, easterly flow regime. ECMWF is a bit longer with this transition, stalling out the stationary front a bit longer through Sunday, which would be commensurate with higher rainfall chances lingering through the weekend. Regardless, PoPs are fairly high in the extended forecast period, with 60-70s across a greater portion of South Florida. If antecedent rainfall totals accumulate to significant amounts, this could prolong the flooding threat for the Atlantic metros. With great uncertainty this far out in the forecast period, be sure to monitor updates to the latest official forecast as greater confidence in the pattern emerges.

Maximum temperatures are forecast to decrease slightly across South Florida in association with the approaching cold front. Maximum high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-upper 80s on Wednesday with the front moving through. These lower maximum temperatures in the mid 80s may last through Saturday in association with increasing cloud-cover/rainfall, with a slight increase towards the upper 80s through the end of the forecast period.

Marine . Shower and thunderstorm activity will be the primary concern into early week. Some of the showers and storms may bring locally gusty conditions and possibly even a few waterspouts. A cold front approaching the waters mid week could lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. There is some uncertainty with the front's progress which could impact the marine forecast later this week.

Aviation . An unsettled pattern through the period with light surface flow and slow-moving boundaries. Sub-VFR conditions are possible with convection with directly impacted terminals potentially seeing IFR/LIFR. Short-fused amendments will likely be necessary.

Beach Forecast . The rip current risk should remain fairly low through mid-week though any increase in winds possible behind the front could elevate that risk.

Astronomically high tides could possibly lead to minor coastal flood concerns again as we approach full moon later this week into the weekend. Any easterly flow could add to this if it were to develop.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 76 89 75 86 / 20 40 40 60 Fort Lauderdale 78 89 77 88 / 20 40 30 60 Miami 77 89 76 88 / 20 40 20 70 Naples 76 88 74 85 / 40 60 60 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Update . 55/CWC Aviation . 55/CWC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 16 mi78 min ESE 8 G 8 83°F 84°F1013.8 hPa (+1.4)
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 22 mi48 min E 5.1 G 6 83°F 87°F1014 hPa
PEGF1 46 mi48 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 84°F 1013.6 hPa

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL4 mi22 minN 010.00 miFair78°F77°F96%1013.2 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL15 mi25 minN 010.00 miFair78°F78°F100%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHST

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5SE5SE7S7S7NW10S11
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CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N4E9E9E8E8E6CalmS3SW4CalmCalmN4Calm
2 days agoS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW6SW5S5N7SE3S8S8N5E5E5N9S5SW3S3SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Point, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Turkey Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:45 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:59 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:01 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:22 PM EDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.310.70.50.50.711.51.821.91.71.410.70.50.40.50.91.31.822

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:37 AM EDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:55 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:54 AM EDT     1.23 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:16 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:18 PM EDT     1.40 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.7-1.7-1.4-0.70.10.71.11.210.3-0.7-1.5-1.9-2-1.8-1.1-0.20.61.11.41.30.7-0.2-1.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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