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Marine Weather and Tides Homestead Base, FL Version 3.4

NOTICE 8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it. 8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue. 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:12AM

Sunset 7:11PM

Tuesday September 29, 2020 12:17 AM EDT (04:17 UTC)

Moonrise 5:20PM

Moonset 4:11AM

Illumination 90%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homestead Base, FL

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Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 282345 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 745 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

Aviation. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds will become light and variable across the region during the overnight hours. These winds will then increase out of the south southeast by the middle of Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday especially over the interior sections. MVFR or IFR conditons are possible in and around any shower or thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Update. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening especially across the interior sections. With plenty of lower level moisture remaining in place, some shower and thunderstorm activity could linger during the overnight hours especially along the coast and in the Atlantic and Gulf waters as well. Winds will generally be light and variable through the overnight hours. On Tuesday, winds will start to shift around to more of a southerly direction as a cold front moves closer to South Florida from the north. As the front gets closer, this will help to enhance the chances for showers and thunderstorms especially across the interior and Lake Okeechobee region during the afternoon hours. High temperatures on Tuesday will generally range from the upper 80s across the east coast to the lower 90s across the interior sections.

Prev Discussion. /issued 416 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020/

Short Term (Rest of Today through Tuesday) . Light flow and abundant moisture (precipitable water > 2 in) are a bad combination for concerns about excessive rainfall today. The Weather Prediction Center has added most of southern Florida into their marginal risk of excessive rainfall for today and tonight. High pressure aloft is combining with surface Atlantic high pressure to limit general flow. Plentiful boundaries are evident this afternoon to act as a focus for convection and source of lift. Instability thanks to earlier insolation is available for convection to tap into. Shear is modest and localized near boundary interactions. Some convection could linger through the overnight, particularly along the coast and the waters.

A surface front will push closer to the region on Tuesday in association with a mid-level trough digging across the eastern two- thirds of the United States into the Gulf of Mexico. As the influence of the front gets closer, the may be pre-frontal troughs and ripples in the flow aloft that allow spurts of convection to flourish starting in the Gulf and over Southwest Florida before activity increases through the day on Tuesday as the influence of those features overspread the area. Temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s again in the afternoon though some morning rains and cloud cover could keep things a few degrees cooler.

Long Term (Wednesday through Monday) .

Wednesday

A deep, vigorous short-wave trough and attendant frontal cyclone will transverse the southeastern Gulf states, likely approaching South Florida by early to mid-day Wednesday. Modest synoptic scale forcing in association with the short-wave trough appears to develop a convergent, cyclonic low-level mass response in the near-surface wind profile. Ahead of the main cold front, it appears possible that discrete and/or multicell structures may develop, owing to this enhanced boundary-induced convergence. Cold pools from these storms may congeal and develop into linear convective modes, which may be further enhanced by decreasing stability in association with the diurnal heating cycle. Therefore, with forecast PWI (precipitable water indices) in the 2.2-2.4 inches range, and deeper synoptic forcing resulting in enhanced bulk shear profiles, localized heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are the main concerns to monitor with the approaching front. Mesoscale factors will highly dictate the further development (or suppression) of this potential storm event, which is of lower predictability at this time.

A distinct NW/N wind shift is apparent as the cold front approaches. This may provide mild relief in the form of slightly lower maximum temperatures, however partially offset by daytime heating and the frontal boundary modification (temperature gradients reduced) as it reaches southerly subtropical latitudes.

Thursday through Saturday

The aforementioned frontal boundary undergoes modification at warmer latitudes, becoming more of a quasi-stationary front. Broad, low- level convergence takes place ahead of this boundary, allowing plentiful moisture (2.2-2.4 ins) to congeal over much of South Florida. With the right entrance region of a 250 hPa jet streak draped over the South Florida and several 500 hPa vorticity maxima transversing the region, the synoptic environment appears favorable for a widespread rainfall event to unfold. Furthermore a noticeable coastal convergence zone appears to manifest over the Atlantic coastline, which may further act to focus convective activity over this area. While this event is further out in the forecast period, prognostic solutions are trending towards this type of setup. There is plenty of uncertainty however, as models show a high QPF gradient between the Atlantic coastal waters/metro region. Furthermore, a large disparity exists between the low-end and high-end rainfall amounts for reasonable best-case/worst-case scenarios. Nevertheless, the primary period of concern as of now for an areal flood threat appears to be Thursday evening through Saturday morning.

Sunday through Monday

Disparate solutions in the mid/long range model solutions are apparent, as the GFS shows the western Atlantic ridge building back in over the region and suppressing widespread convective development with a drier, easterly flow regime. ECMWF is a bit longer with this transition, stalling out the stationary front a bit longer through Sunday, which would be commensurate with higher rainfall chances lingering through the weekend. Regardless, PoPs are fairly high in the extended forecast period, with 60-70s across a greater portion of South Florida. If antecedent rainfall totals accumulate to significant amounts, this could prolong the flooding threat for the Atlantic metros. With great uncertainty this far out in the forecast period, be sure to monitor updates to the latest official forecast as greater confidence in the pattern emerges.

Maximum temperatures are forecast to decrease slightly across South Florida in association with the approaching cold front. Maximum high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-upper 80s on Wednesday with the front moving through. These lower maximum temperatures in the mid 80s may last through Saturday in association with increasing cloud-cover/rainfall, with a slight increase towards the upper 80s through the end of the forecast period.

Marine . Shower and thunderstorm activity will be the primary concern into early week. Some of the showers and storms may bring locally gusty conditions and possibly even a few waterspouts. A cold front approaching the waters mid week could lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. There is some uncertainty with the front's progress which could impact the marine forecast later this week.

Aviation . An unsettled pattern through the period with light surface flow and slow-moving boundaries. Sub-VFR conditions are possible with convection with directly impacted terminals potentially seeing IFR/LIFR. Short-fused amendments will likely be necessary.

Beach Forecast . The rip current risk should remain fairly low through mid-week though any increase in winds possible behind the front could elevate that risk.

Astronomically high tides could possibly lead to minor coastal flood concerns again as we approach full moon later this week into the weekend. Any easterly flow could add to this if it were to develop.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 76 89 75 86 / 20 40 40 60 Fort Lauderdale 78 89 77 88 / 20 40 30 60 Miami 77 89 76 88 / 20 40 20 70 Naples 76 88 74 85 / 40 60 60 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Update . 55/CWC Aviation . 55/CWC

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL	16 mi	78 min	ESE 8 G 8	83°F	84°F		1013.8 hPa (+1.4)
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL	22 mi	48 min	E 5.1 G 6	83°F	87°F		1014 hPa
PEGF1	46 mi	48 min	SE 8.9 G 9.9	84°F			1013.6 hPa

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL	4 mi	22 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	78°F	77°F	96%	1013.2 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL	15 mi	25 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	78°F	78°F	100%	1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHST

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)

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S11 G18

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Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Point, Biscayne Bay, Florida

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Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL

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