Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cutler Bay, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 8:01PM Monday August 10, 2020 2:10 PM EDT (18:10 UTC) Moonrise 11:25PMMoonset 11:48AM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 849 Am Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Rest of today..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Tuesday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night and Thursday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 849 Am Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Synopsis.. High pressure will remain in control over south florida through the week keeping an easterly wind flow over the region and mostly benign marine conditions. Isolated to scattered convection may agitate seas just a bit along with producing brief heavy rainfall and lightning each day.
Gulf stream hazards..Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and Thunderstorms. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of aug 06, 2020 at 1200 utc... 10 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 12 nautical miles southeast of port everglades. 9 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 12 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cutler Bay, FL
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location: 25.56, -80.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 101452 AAB AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 1052 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

. Late Morning Update .

Update. A cloud-line has developed across portions of the local Atlantic waters. We'll keep an eye on this feature as the day continues, however, no adjustments needed at this time to the current forecast as any rainfall dissipates as it moves onshore. Still expecting convection to develop across the western portions of the Atlantic metros or just lightly west over the interior sections shortly. This activity will generally move west along with the sea breeze through the afternoon. Can't rule out a strong wind gust with the strongest activity. At the moment, temperatures and POPs look good.

Prev Discussion. /issued 729 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020/

.12z Aviation Update.

Aviation . More convection will develop across the western portions of the Atlantic metro again today and slide westward with the sea breeze. APF may need additional short fused tempos as storm chances are slightly higher across the Gulf Coast. Otherwise, light to moderate easterly flow continues.

Prev Discussion . /issued 423 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020/

Maximum Heat Indices of 104-109 Across Most Areas Today. A Few Strong Storms Possible Across Interior and Gulf Coast Today.

Short Term . (Monday through Tuesday Night):

A broad area of mid-level high pressure situated across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic waters continues to facilitate weak easterly to southeasterly lower to middle tropospheric flow and seasonably modest moisture (PWs of 1.7 to 1.9 inches) across the area. As previously advertised, a batch of relatively drier mid-level air is beginning to gradually spread across the far southern portions of the South Florida County Warning Area, highlighted by a notable mid-level drying trend seen in the latest 00Z MFL RAOB. Present indications are that the slightly drier mid-level air will remain confined to the southern portions of South Florida, allowing for the establishment of a subtle moisture gradient across the area. While the development of an inland-advancing Atlantic sea-breeze circulation and nearly stationary Gulf breeze should once again be the focus for convective initiation today, the aforementioned moisture gradient could also assist in focusing convection towards inland Palm Beach County and the Lake region by this afternoon. With weak deep- layer flow in place, anticipate convection to generally propagate westward along subsequent convective outflow boundaries towards the interior and Gulf Coast of South Florida, where 0-3 km (low- level) lapse rates will be locally steepest due to diurnal heating.

Depending on the magnitude of the mid-level dry air, convective initiation could be somewhat delayed compared to previous days, though this could allow convection to persist a bit later into the evening hours (especially across the Gulf Coast and adjacent waters). The primary hazards with any convection that develops this afternoon will be locally strong convective wind gusts, lightning, and heavy rainfall. The strong wind gust potential may be slightly higher this afternoon than previous days due to the presence of drier mid-level air amid seasonably modest PWs. This could allow for a few wet microbursts to develop across inland and western portions of South Florida, where low-level lapse rates should be steepest and DCAPE will be maximized (south of the subtle moisture gradient). Maximum temperatures will once again be slightly above average, with lower 90s forecast across the eastern portions of South Florida, and middle 90s across inland and western portions of the area. While the presence of drier mid- level air and associated enhanced boundary-layer mixing could slightly reduce heat-related concerns for this afternoon, caution is advised to those taking part in outdoor activities, as heat- related impacts could become a concern (especially prior to the onset of convection).

Short-range model guidance continues to depict a transition day on Tuesday, with a weak low-level trough moving through the southeastern CONUS which will continue to slightly weaken the mid- level high that has been in control of the weather pattern across South Florida. As the low-level trough interacts with the aforementioned high, anticipate a brief tightening of the pressure gradient and a slight enhancement to the easterly/southeasterly flow. Convection should once again initiate along sea-breeze circulations, though a slight increase in moisture could allow for earlier initiation and slightly greater convective coverage (especially across inland and western portions of the area). Maximum temperatures will be closer to normal, as the mid-level high over the area continues to weaken, and Atlantic high pressure becomes the primary influence across the area.

Long Term . (Wednesday through Sunday):

The eastern U.S. trough should continue to shunt the low- mid level ridge center into the western Atlantic by the middle of the week leaving South Florida on the southwest side of the ridge. However, the consensus of the extended range global models is that the ridge should start building back into the SW Atlantic and the peninsula while a trough remains across the eastern U.S. This should result in a modest increase in the pressure gradient yielding a slight increase in the low-level easterly flow particularly across the offshore waters towards late in the week.

A tropical wave across the eastern Caribbean at this time should be moving south of the area by mid week with another wave approaching 50W at this time passing to our south by sometime in the weekend or later. The first wave is wrapped in a lot of dry air around it with a good pocket of dry air also advancing ahead of the second wave that follows behind. This in combination with the ridge to the north building back closer to the region mid to late week, and the trough across the eastern U.S., means the area should remain within a gradient of precipitable water values that should be around or slightly below normal across the area and well above normal farther up north across the state. This scenario should result in a steep gradient in rain chances in the afternoon and evening between east coast and inland/western areas through much of the extended with the usual diurnal shower activity across the Atlantic and east coast overnight and through the morning hours. This could be disrupted some by the second wave moving to our south this weekend or early next week but that remains rather uncertain at this time. The Atlantic ridge to the north could keep any significant increase in moisture with that wave south of the area but global models diverge quite in bit in its timing and extent. So stuck close to the blended guidance for this period. Whether it is this weekend or into next week, some increase in moisture is possible as the wave advances towards the Bahamas and northwest Caribbean Sea. Seasonal temperatures are anticipated through the period.

Marine . Surface high pressure will remain in control across the region through the week. Light to moderate flow will persist and may increase some mid to late week. Regardless, rather favorable marine conditions expected. Showers and storms will be possible through the week, which may locally agitate seas. Additionally, storms may produce locally heavy rainfall and cloud-to-water lightning.

Beach Forecast . Rip current risk is forecast to remain low through the week as marine conditions remain benign outside any thunderstorm activity.

Fire Weather . Light surface and transport winds today and tomorrow will result in fair dispersion conditions at best prior to any onset of convection. Afternoon relative humidities will remain well above marginal levels.

Climate . Although temperatures today will be above normal, the chance of they reaching record levels is very small at this time as low to mid level ridge weakens some.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 92 77 91 77 / 20 0 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 91 79 90 79 / 20 10 20 10 Miami 92 78 90 78 / 20 0 30 10 Naples 93 76 93 77 / 50 20 50 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Short Term . 18/Weinman Long Term . 52/PS Update/Aviation . 28/Frye


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 8 mi71 min E 6 G 7 85°F 86°F1019.5 hPa (+0.3)
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 13 mi53 min E 7 G 8.9
MDKF1 20 mi71 min 90°F
MNBF1 24 mi71 min 94°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 24 mi71 min 90°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 25 mi71 min 92°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 26 mi131 min 91°F
THRF1 26 mi131 min 91°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 28 mi131 min 91°F
JBYF1 28 mi71 min 90°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 29 mi131 min 89°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 29 mi131 min 89°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 32 mi71 min 90°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 34 mi71 min 92°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 36 mi71 min 90°F
PEGF1 37 mi59 min 88°F 1019.4 hPa
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 38 mi71 min 86°F
TBYF1 38 mi71 min 92°F
NRRF1 39 mi71 min 86°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 40 mi131 min 85°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 40 mi71 min 85°F
LRIF1 40 mi71 min 89°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 40 mi71 min 90°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 43 mi71 min 86°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 43 mi71 min NE 6 90°F
WWEF1 43 mi131 min 87°F
BKYF1 44 mi71 min 91°F
HREF1 44 mi71 min 86°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 44 mi71 min 86°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 44 mi71 min 91°F
CWAF1 45 mi131 min 87°F
SREF1 48 mi71 min 88°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 49 mi71 min 91°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 49 mi71 min 88°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL9 mi75 minE 810.00 miA Few Clouds89°F75°F65%1019.3 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL12 mi78 minESE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy92°F79°F66%1018.8 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL18 mi78 minE 9 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy91°F75°F61%1018.9 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL24 mi78 minENE 810.00 miA Few Clouds90°F73°F59%1019.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHST

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9NE10E8E9E10E5E5E4E3E3CalmE3E5E4CalmNE3CalmE3SE3E5E4E6E6E8
1 day agoE8NE9E11E9NE6NE4NE4E4NE4NE6E4E4NE5CalmCalmSE3E4CalmCalmE5SE4E8E6E10
2 days agoE9E6E8E8E7E3E4N5NE5NE4E5E5E4E4E3CalmCalmCalmNW3N4E4NE7E6E8

Tide / Current Tables for Boca Chita Key, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Boca Chita Key
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:35 AM EDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:13 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:13 PM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:35 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.31.51.51.41.10.80.50.30.20.30.50.81.11.31.41.41.310.80.60.40.40.6

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     -1.58 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:00 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:24 PM EDT     0.83 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:44 PM EDT     -1.29 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.3-0.2-0.7-1.3-1.6-1.5-1.1-0.6-00.50.80.80.60.3-0.2-0.8-1.2-1.3-1.1-0.7-0.30.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.