Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cutler Bay, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:25PM Thursday September 16, 2021 1:55 PM EDT (17:55 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 1:38AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 1001 Am Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Rest of today..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southwest winds around 5 knots becoming south after midnight. Bay waters smooth. Chance of Thunderstorms late in the evening. Chance of showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..East winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East northeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1001 Am Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Synopsis.. An area of high pressure will slowly build northward over south florida and the adjacent local waters through the upcoming weekend and early next week. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will be possible from time to time over all local waters through the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 16, 2021 at 1200 utc... 8 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 13 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 9 nautical miles east of lake worth. 11 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cutler Bay, FL
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location: 25.56, -80.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 161407 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1007 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

UPDATE. A light south to southwesterly wind flow will remain in place across the region today as a ridge of high pressure slowly begins to build in from the south. The 12z KMFL sounding shows PWAT values of 1.97 inches and additional moisture advection will occur across the region as the day progresses. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop as the sea breezes push inland and interact with each other. The highest chances of showers and thunderstorms will be over the interior and east coast metro areas this afternoon and this evening. With mid level lapse rates remaining rather poor, the potential for strong thunderstorm development will remain on the low side today. The main concern will be the potential for localized flooding as thunderstorms will contain heavy rainfall and they will be slow moving. The highest chances of localized flooding will remain over the east coast metro areas as well as the Lake Okeechobee region due to the light south to southwesterly wind flow. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s across the immediate east coast to the lower 90s across the interior sections.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 730 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021)

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) . Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the western areas and the interior by the mid morning hours. These showers and storms will spread eastward this afternoon into the evening as well. Periods of MVFR or even IFR will be possible especially across the east coast terminals this afternoon and this evening. Winds will gradually shift to the south southeast along the east coast as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Short fused amendments will be probable this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 335 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021)

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday) .

High pressure will gradually build over South Florida today through Friday as the low pressure area (Invest 96L) well N-NE of the Bahamas continues to move north and away from our area. This will cause the low level winds today and Friday to be primarily S-SW, a slight change from the past few days.

A deep stream of moisture from the south is covering the western half of South Florida, with slightly drier air persisting over eastern sections of the peninsula and the Atlantic waters. This overall pattern won't change much today, and the S-SW wind flow will bring showers and a few thunderstorms onshore the Gulf coast this morning. As the day progresses, short-range models are fairly consistent in convection spreading and developing over the interior peninsula during the afternoon. Generally speaking, the highest coverage of showers and thunderstorms (70-80% PoPs) is expected from Collier County east into NW sections of Miami-Dade, western Broward/Palm Beach, and the Lake Okeechobee area. Areas closer to the east coast have a higher chance of rain today (50-60%) compared to past days as enough of a westerly component may bring some of the convection towards the coast. Southern Miami-Dade County will probably be the area with the least coverage of showers and thunderstorms today as the S-SW winds push the main areas of convergence away from there. Lapse rates remain rather meager today, so not expecting much in the way of strong storm potential. Again, the main threat with today's storms is localized flooding. Most of the showers and thunderstorms will dissipate shortly after sunset, except showers and a few thunderstorms may move onshore the Gulf coast tonight due to the S-SW winds.

Friday looks to be much of the same as far as the coverage and character of the precipitation, as well as the main threat being localized flooding. The GFS model does shift the low level ridge northward a little faster than the ECMWF during the day on Friday, which could result in a northward push of the main area of convection Friday afternoon, but this shouldn't change the overall forecast too much if it were to materialize.

Temperatures are forecast to be a couple of degrees higher over the eastern half of the peninsula today and Friday due to the S-SW wind, pushing highs into the lower 90s in some areas. Upper 80s to around 90 for highs is expected elsewhere. Heat index values remain close to seasonal normals with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 70s. Heat index values will also be a few degrees higher, reaching the low 100s most areas both afternoons.

LONG TERM .

Friday Night through Sunday:

An increasingly meridional flow pattern will evolve aloft across the CONUS with amplified western troughing and downstream eastern ridging. However a weakness in the ridge will exist over the Mississippi valley and Eastern Seaboard with a potential tropical system (designated as Invest 96L as of this writing) lifting north offshore from the Carolinas early in the period. This pattern will place South Florida in a light south-southeasterly surface wind regime with a relatively moist airmass as precipitable water values hover in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch rage. This should result in scattered shower and thunderstorm development and some enhancement to the typical diurnal cycle at times. The best rain chances for east coast areas should be from late morning to early afternoon. Thereafter the best rain chances may shift slightly inland with the Atlantic sea breeze. That said, given the light wind regime it's possible that the breeze may become stuck over the western Atlantic metro areas at times. Seasonally typical weather-related hazards should exist, with lightning, gusty thunderstorm winds, and possible localized flooding of urban areas. Temperatures should remain seasonal.

Monday through Wednesday:

The pattern and weather impacts described previously should persist into the first portion of this period. Thereafter the forecast picture becomes a bit murkier heading towards mid week owing to model differences in handling some of the key upper level features. In general there appears to be agreement in a mid-upper trough approaching the area from the east with a potential uptick in shower and storm chances. However model differences in the strength and placement of this feature decrease our forecast confidence somewhat. Right now what remains to be settled is whether this period will see conditions that are more typical of the "usual" wet season pattern or whether things will take a turn for the soggy. This should become clearer with time as predictability increases so keep up with forecast changes. Otherwise generally seasonal temperatures should continue, possibly trending a degree or two cooler if a wetter solution is realized.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS) .

Mainly dry and VFR through about 15z, then increasing SHRA/TSRA especially at KAPF after 15z, then spreading/developing east across the peninsula to the east coast sites by 18z. Best chance of prevailing MVFR at KAPF after 15z, although periods of MVFR associated with SHRA/TSRA a decent possibility 18z-00z east coast sites. PROB30 for TSRA and associated MVFR should cover the situation for the time being, with updates probable at some sites as the day progresses and TSRA develops.

MARINE .

Winds and seas will be light as the high pressure ridge remains near the area, with daily wind speeds no more than about 10-12 knots and seas 2 ft or less. Showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous over the Gulf waters through Friday, then more evenly distributed across the local waters this weekend and early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Miami 77 91 77 92 / 30 60 20 50 West Kendall 76 92 76 92 / 30 60 20 50 Opa-Locka 76 92 76 92 / 30 60 20 50 Homestead 76 90 76 90 / 30 50 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 77 90 77 90 / 30 60 20 50 N Ft Lauderdale 77 90 77 90 / 30 60 20 50 Pembroke Pines 76 90 76 91 / 30 60 20 50 West Palm Beach 76 92 76 91 / 40 60 20 50 Boca Raton 76 90 76 90 / 30 60 20 50 Naples 76 89 76 90 / 50 70 30 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Update . CWC

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 8 mi55 min S 13 G 14 85°F 86°F1016.7 hPa (+0.5)
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 13 mi61 min SSW 9.9 G 11 83°F 90°F1017.1 hPa
MDKF1 20 mi175 min 86°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 24 mi175 min 84°F
MNBF1 24 mi175 min 87°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 25 mi175 min 84°F
JBYF1 28 mi175 min 85°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 29 mi175 min 85°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 32 mi175 min 84°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 34 mi175 min 86°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 36 mi175 min 85°F
PEGF1 37 mi61 min SSE 7 G 11 85°F 1016.5 hPa
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 38 mi175 min 82°F
TBYF1 38 mi175 min 86°F
NRRF1 39 mi175 min 86°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 40 mi175 min 84°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 40 mi175 min 84°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 40 mi175 min 85°F
LRIF1 40 mi175 min 86°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 43 mi175 min 82°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 43 mi175 min ESE 4.1 85°F
WWEF1 43 mi175 min 85°F
BKYF1 44 mi175 min 85°F
HREF1 44 mi175 min 85°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 44 mi175 min 85°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 44 mi175 min 86°F
CWAF1 45 mi175 min 86°F
SREF1 48 mi175 min 85°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 49 mi175 min 85°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 49 mi175 min 85°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL9 mi59 minS 810.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F74°F69%1015.9 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL12 mi62 minNNE 45.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist77°F73°F88%1016.5 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL18 mi62 minS 810.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F73°F65%1016.5 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL24 mi62 minE 104.00 miRain Fog/Mist76°F72°F88%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHST

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11CalmSW3W8NW4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S6S8S9S8
1 day agoE8E8E9E5E6E4CalmCalmCalmN3SE5CalmCalmCalmN3NE4CalmNW4CalmN3NE3E7E8NE8
2 days agoE14E9E6NE5NE4CalmN4NE4NE5NE8NE6NE4E5NE3E4CalmCalmNW3N3NE4E7E11E8E9

Tide / Current Tables for Boca Chita Key, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Boca Chita Key
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Thu -- 12:32 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:15 AM EDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:57 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:08 PM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.50.711.31.61.81.71.51.20.90.60.30.30.40.71.11.51.81.91.81.61.31

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:06 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:45 AM EDT     0.63 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:43 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:34 AM EDT     -1.88 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:34 PM EDT     1.43 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:36 PM EDT     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-0.6-00.30.60.60.4-0.2-0.9-1.5-1.8-1.9-1.6-1-0.20.511.41.410.2-0.6-1.1-1.5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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