Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cutler Bay, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 5:34PM Monday December 16, 2019 4:41 AM EST (09:41 UTC) Moonrise 10:13PMMoonset 10:54AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 349 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Today..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters a moderate chop. Light showers likely.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of light showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of light showers.
Thursday night and Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of light showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 349 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Synopsis..High pressure centered over the western atlantic will keep a ese flow for the beginning of the work week. A cold front will slowly approach the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing showers and possibly a few isolated Thunderstorms for the middle of the week. The front should pass through on Thursday, allowing for quieter and drier conditions for the end of the week.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 14, 2019 at 1200 utc... 7 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 16 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 12 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 16 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cutler Bay, FL
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location: 25.56, -80.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 160814 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 314 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

Short Term (Today through Tuesday Night). A rather complex weather pattern dominates much of the central and eastern CONUS with large- amplitude troughing extending from east Texas through much of the Atlantic seaboard, while the deep SE states and the FL peninsula continue to enjoy the influence of relatively stable and benign weather thanks to the dominance of a broad high pressure system centered over the west Atlantic.

Latest sfc and model analyses show the high pressure ridge at the lower levels, while mainly zonal flow dominates aloft over the area, keeping generally easterly flow across SoFlo today. Models gradually migrate the ridge eastward and into the west Atlantic during the short term, which will strengthen a little more the pressure gradients over the region. This will result in periods of gusty winds this afternoon, possibly in the 20-25 mph range at times, mainly over the Atlantic coast areas.

With the prevailing E/SE flow, low-level moisture gradually increases and brings a warming trend today with afternoon highs climbing into the mid 80s. It will also push a few passing showers over the eastern half of SoFlo this afternoon, but any shower that forms should be brief.

Meanwhile, model solutions suggest the deepening/consolidation of the trough across the eastern seaboard into a large deep low near the NE states, which sends an associated frontal boundary into the northern FL peninsula by early Tuesday. This in turn will bring veering winds to a more southerly flow, which in turn increases moisture advection from the Caribbean/SW Atlantic waters. Therefore, as daytime heating provides added BL instability, expect increasing shower/convective activity on Tuesday afternoon with scattered to numerous showers, along with a few possible thunderstorms. With the southerly flow in place, best chances for deep convection will reside over interior and northern areas.

Temperatures on Tuesday afternoon will again hit the mid 80s across much of SoFlo, with nighttime lows mostly in the 60s.

Long Term (Wednesday through Sunday Night). Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning as a cold front pushes through the area, with the greatest instability and thunderstorm potential out over the waters. Right now high temperatures are forecast to range from near 70 west of the Lake to the low 80s across the far southern Peninsula, which is a touch higher than previous forecasts due to a slight slowing in the frontal timing. Since the front is forecast to push through in the morning, any timing changes could have a significant impact on forecast highs for the day. Breezy northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front Wednesday before becoming more northeasterly on Thursday. Wednesday Night is forecast to be the coldest of the period with low temperatures ranging from the mid 40s west of the Lake to the low 60s right along the East Coast.

Winds gradually become easterly on Friday but remain breezy with strong surface high pressure over the mid Atlantic states and developing low pressure somewhere around the southeast Gulf. The forecast for the weekend remains interesting with some fairly significant feature and timing differences between the models. Both GFS and ECMWF show a mid to upper trough digging southeastward into the Eastern Gulf with a surface low pressure system developing somewhere in the eastern to southeastern Gulf next weekend. GFS develops and keeps the low further south, with a much faster track across the Keys and Bahamas on Saturday. ECMWF is slower, developing the low in the eastern Gulf and then deepening it some off the Florida West Coast before dragging it across the state Saturday Night or Sunday. Either solution could potentially pose impacts for our area, but that largely depends on the strength, track and timing of the system. In general, a faster solution would probably be less hazardous as the low could deepen off the Southeast CONUS coast instead of while it's still in the Gulf. A faster solution would also give less time for moisture return in the wake of Wednesday's front, although as the solutions trend later and later it appears that will be less of an issue. Track of the system will be critical regardless of timing, as a track closer to South Florida would increase our chance for heavy rainfall and/or severe weather.

Marine. High pressure dominates the coastal waters through Tuesday, with persistent easterly to southeasterly flow. A cold front boundary reaches the area by mid-week, bringing potential for hazardous conditions over the coastal waters for the later part of the work week.

Aviation. VFR expected to prevail during the next 24 hours at all terminals. Although there are low chances of some showers this afternoon over the Atlantic terminals, will keep mention of rain out of the TAFS attm and update as necessary. Mainly ESE winds prevail during the forecast period, becoming gusty at times after 14Z.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 83 71 82 67 / 20 20 60 70 Fort Lauderdale 83 74 82 70 / 20 20 50 60 Miami 83 73 83 69 / 20 20 50 60 Naples 85 69 82 65 / 0 10 50 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Marine . 17/AR Aviation . 17/AR Short Term . 17/AR Long Term . 32/MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 8 mi41 min ESE 18 G 20 76°F 76°F1019.5 hPa (-0.7)
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 13 mi65 min E 12 G 16 76°F 76°F1019.3 hPa
MDKF1 20 mi101 min 75°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 24 mi101 min 76°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 25 mi101 min 75°F
THRF1 26 mi161 min 75°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 26 mi161 min 75°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 28 mi161 min 75°F
JBYF1 28 mi101 min 75°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 29 mi161 min 75°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 29 mi161 min 75°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 32 mi101 min 74°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 34 mi101 min 75°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 36 mi101 min 75°F
PEGF1 37 mi65 min E 15 G 18 76°F 1020 hPa
TBYF1 38 mi101 min 75°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 38 mi101 min 72°F
NRRF1 39 mi101 min 73°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 40 mi101 min 74°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 40 mi161 min 73°F
LRIF1 40 mi101 min 74°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 40 mi101 min 73°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 43 mi101 min 72°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 43 mi101 min ENE 8 75°F
WWEF1 43 mi161 min 75°F
BKYF1 44 mi101 min 73°F
HREF1 44 mi101 min 73°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 44 mi101 min 73°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 44 mi101 min 76°F
CWAF1 45 mi161 min 74°F
SREF1 48 mi101 min 74°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 49 mi101 min 73°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 49 mi101 min 74°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL9 mi45 minE 810.00 miFair74°F68°F83%1019.3 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL12 mi48 minE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F68°F90%1019.3 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL18 mi48 minE 810.00 miA Few Clouds74°F64°F74%1019.6 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL24 mi48 minE 410.00 miFair70°F64°F82%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHST

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6N3NW3N4N6N5NE8NE10NE9E9E10NE7NE5CalmNE4E5NE5NE5E7E10E8E8E8E8
1 day agoCalmSE5S4SW5SW9SW15
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W15W14W11W8W7----W6NW6NW5NW4NW4NW4NW5
2 days agoE4E4NE3CalmCalmSE6SE8S6S8S7S7S8SW5SW3SW4W5SW3S5SE7SE7S4CalmNW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Boca Chita Key, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Boca Chita Key
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:28 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:53 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:33 PM EST     1.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:04 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.61.310.50.2000.30.71.21.61.81.81.71.30.90.60.30.20.30.611.4

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:00 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:38 AM EST     -2.21 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:02 AM EST     1.52 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:53 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:24 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:23 PM EST     -1.75 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:00 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:17 PM EST     0.95 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.7-1.5-2.1-2.2-1.8-1.1-0.30.61.31.51.410.3-0.5-1.3-1.7-1.7-1.3-0.7-00.60.90.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.