Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Miami, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:32PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 3:21 PM EST (20:21 UTC) Moonrise 5:18PMMoonset 6:15AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 304 Pm Est Wed Dec 11 2019
Tonight..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots along the coast to east northeast 10 to 15 knots in the gulf stream. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Showers likely through the night.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 15 knots along the coast to east northeast 10 to 15 knots in the gulf stream. Along the coast, seas 2 to 3 feet. In the gulf stream, seas around 2 feet building to 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet in the afternoon. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots along the coast to east 10 to 20 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet along the coast and 5 to 7 feet with occasional to 9 feet in the gulf stream. Period 9 seconds. North northeast swell around 3 feet after midnight. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Chance of showers.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet along the coast and 5 to 7 feet with occasional to 9 feet in the gulf stream. Period 9 seconds. North northeast swell around 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots along the coast to south 5 to 15 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night.
Saturday..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the morning.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Monday..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of light showers in the afternoon.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 304 Pm Est Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis.. Increasing northeast winds will impact the gulf waters overnight, as a weak cold front moves into south florida and becomes diffuse. Conditions will deteriorate across the atlantic waters on Thursday as northeasterly swell from a deepening low off the u.s. East coast arrives into our local waters. This swell will cause wave heights to increase to between 6 and 9 feet, with the highest seas in the gulf stream. The impact of this swell will be short-lived, with seas subsiding on Friday, and benign marine conditions expected for the weekend into early next week.
Gulf stream hazards..Increasing waves and swell Thursday and Friday. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 10, 2019 at 1200 utc... 19 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 20 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 15 nautical miles east of lake worth. 19 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Miami, FL
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location: 25.78, -80.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 111806 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL Issued by National Weather Service Key West FL 106 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

Aviation. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all South Florida terminals for the rest of this afternoon and evening. Scattered to widespread showers are expected through 00z, which will lead to brief bouts of MVFR to IFR conditions due to potentially low ceilings and very heavy downpours. Although a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, chances are too low to include in the TAF at this time and will be left for later TAF amendments, as necessary. Generally southeasterly winds at around 10 knots will gradually back late this evening to northeasterly.

Prev Discussion. /issued Issued by National Weather Service Key West FL/

Update . Visible satellite imagery depicts fog and stratus quickly burning off across most of South Florida this morning, with a field of cumulus developing during the past hour. The dense fog advisory which was in effect early this morning for interior and Gulf coast sections of the area has been allowed to expire, as webcams and surface obs indicate improving vsbys. Radar detects scattered showers across eastern Broward and Palm Beach Counties, across Glades County, and along the Mainland Monroe coast. Another warm and humid day is underway, with temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s, and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.

Surface analysis depicts a cold front across north Florida, extending across the peninsula from near Daytona Beach to just north of Spring Hill. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows broad troughing over the eastern CONUS, with a shortwave advancing eastward across Louisiana. MIMIC-TPW imagery shows an axis of enhanced moisture extending from the SW Atlantic across South Florida and into the Keys. The 12Z Miami sounding reflected the enhanced moisture in place, with a couple of high inversions between 10K and 13K feet, and ample moisture beneath the inversion yielding a PW of 1.63 inches, which is near the 90th percentile for this date. A deep dry layer does remain in place above the inversions.

For the rest of today, as the cold front slowly advances southward into central Florida, enhanced moisture lingering ahead of the front across South Florida, combined with ample daytime heating, should spark scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. CAM guidance appears to have initialized reasonably well with showers focused along the Miami-Dade to Palm Beach corridor this morning. Most of the guidance predicts the focus of convection to shift slowly NW during the remainder of the day, with highest rain chances across interior areas near and SW of the Lake. The dry air aloft will challenge any deep convection that attempts to develop, but isolated storms cannot be ruled out. The existing forecast appears to be on track, and no additional updates are planned for this morning.

Prev Discussion . /issued 547 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019/

Aviation . Fog and low stratus impacting KAPF should improve after sunrise this morning. Scattered to widespread showers are expected through the taf period for the East Coast sites, with KAPF expecting showers this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms will also be possible today, but chances are too low to include in the taf for now. Generally VFR conditions are expected outside of any showers and thunderstorms.

Prev Discussion . /issued 401 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019/

Short Term (Today Through Thursday Night) . Patchy dense fog has again developed across portions of the interior this morning and can be seen in both observations and various traffic cameras. Expect the fog and/or low ceilings to persist until after sunrise this morning.

A cold front pushing through North Florida this morning will ultimately stall out across Central Florida or the Lake Region today into tonight. Southeasterly winds to start the day will become northeasterly this evening as the front approaches. Increased moisture ahead of this front will lead to an increase in showers today and tonight, with some thunderstorms also possible this afternoon. On Thursday, the stalled front remains near or just to the north of the area and will keep scattered showers in the forecast through at least Thursday night. While a few thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon, overall chances look to be a little less than today.

Long Term .

Friday .

As a major shortwave trough continues to progress eastward across Texas and into the Mid-South on Friday, cyclogenesis will likely materialize over the northern Gulf of Mexico where a remnant stationary boundary exists. This new area of low pressure will allow for the winds across South Florida to veer from a southeasterly direction to a southerly/southwesterly direction throughout the day on Friday. As the winds shift, low/mid-level moisture will advect across South Florida from the Gulf of Mexico. Model guidance indicates that this moisture will be confined to a relatively shallow layer, therefore, most activity should remain in the form of rain showers. The best forcing for ascent, surface convergence, and deep moisture appears to remain to the north and west of the CWA on Friday; however, isolated thunderstorms may develop in areas that experience increased heating during the day. Organization of thunderstorms on Friday appears unlikely over South Florida at this time due to dry air aloft and a lack of instability, but will have to monitor the development of the low pressure system.

This Weekend into Monday .

As the aforementioned low pressure system lifts northeastward, it will drag a weak cold front across Florida throughout the day on Saturday. Modest moisture should still be available across South Florida early on Saturday, promoting the development of rain showers over the coastal areas. Model guidance indicates that PWATs will drop from approx. 1.7 inches to 1.3 inches throughout the day on Saturday, limiting the chances of shower development later in the day. Winds will veer to a westerly direction and increase in magnitude throughout the day as the pressure gradient briefly tightens during the weak frontal passage. By Sunday, the cold frontal boundary will be over the western Atlantic waters and winds will shift to a northerly direction. High pressure will briefly build over the region, bringing stable atmospheric conditions along with dry air advection across South Florida. On Monday, the aforementioned high pressure will shift eastward into the western Atlantic waters which will cause the winds to veer back to an easterly direction across South Florida. Dry and generally stable conditions should limit most shower activity during this time.

Tuesday into Wednesday .

On Tuesday, a well-defined cold front will progress southeastward towards South Florida, allowing the winds to shift to a southerly direction. The CWA will be in the warm sector during this period which will allow for the development of rain showers throughout the day as well as isolated thunderstorms over the northern portions of South Florida. This cold front is currently forecast to pass completely over South Florida, bringing a noticeable drop in temperatures and dew points across the region on Wednesday.

Marine . Generally benign boating conditions are expected today and tonight. Conditions deteriorate across the Atlantic waters Thursday as northeasterly swell from a deepening low off the CONUS East Coast arrives to our local waters. This swell will cause wave heights to increase to around 6 to 9 feet, with the highest waves in the Gulf Stream. The influence from this swell is relatively short-lived, and benign marine conditions are expected for the weekend and into early next week.

Beaches . A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the Atlantic beaches today due to some lingering effects from strong rip currents observed yesterday. Tomorrow into Friday, northeast swell will likely cause an increased rip current risk and rough surf for the Atlantic beaches, primarily the Palm Beaches.

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES . FL . None. AM . None.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 69 79 68 80 / 50 50 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 71 80 70 80 / 50 50 20 40 Miami 70 81 69 81 / 50 50 20 40 Naples 66 81 65 80 / 40 20 10 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 4 mi70 min ESE 8 G 9.9 80°F 77°F1020 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 14 mi82 min SE 9.9 G 9.9 79°F 78°F1020.4 hPa (-1.9)
PEGF1 22 mi70 min SE 1.9 G 7 81°F 1020.6 hPa
MDKF1 36 mi142 min 77°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 39 mi142 min 80°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 40 mi142 min 78°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 41 mi202 min 77°F
THRF1 41 mi202 min 76°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 43 mi202 min 78°F
JBYF1 43 mi142 min 78°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 44 mi202 min 76°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 44 mi202 min 77°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 46 mi142 min 78°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 47 mi142 min 74°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 47 mi142 min 72°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 47 mi142 min 74°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 48 mi142 min 79°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 48 mi202 min 74°F
NRRF1 49 mi142 min 75°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL6 mi29 minSE 10 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F70°F67%1020 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL10 mi29 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F71°F69%1020.4 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL15 mi29 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F68°F71%1020.9 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL16 mi29 minSE 910.00 miA Few Clouds85°F72°F65%1019.5 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL20 mi29 minESE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F72°F72%1020 hPa
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL23 mi86 minE 810.00 miFair81°F73°F76%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMIA

Wind History from MIA (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE9E12E11E9E9E8E6E5E5E6E4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmSE7E11E10E12E10E12E12

Tide / Current Tables for Miami, Marina, Florida
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Miami
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:55 AM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:14 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:19 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:27 PM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:18 PM EST     2.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.100.20.61.31.92.42.72.62.31.71.20.70.40.40.71.21.82.22.52.42.11.5

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:39 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:52 AM EST     2.12 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:14 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:03 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:45 PM EST     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:10 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:42 PM EST     1.74 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:00 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.4-1.3-0.70.41.62.12.11.91.20.1-0.8-1.1-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.211.61.71.61.10-1-1.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.