Monday, November30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tamiami, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:31PM Monday November 30, 2020 11:26 AM EST (16:26 UTC) Moonrise 5:53PMMoonset 6:58AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 918 Am Est Mon Nov 30 2020
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..North northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the evening.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..East northeast winds around 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers late in the evening, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 918 Am Est Mon Nov 30 2020
Synopsis..A strong cold front will move across the area, bringing increasing winds and seas today. Expect hazardous marine conditions through at least mid week, then gradually subsiding towards the end of the forecast period as high pressure returns to the region.
Gulf stream hazards..There is a slight chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over the gulf stream. Hazardous seas and gusty winds behind the frontal passage the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of nov 28, 2020 at 1200 utc... 2 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 12 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 6 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 9 nautical miles southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tamiami, FL
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location: 25.8, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 301516 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1016 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

Update. A cold front continues to quickly advance down the Florida peninsula and currently a line of showers and storms is moving through central Florida. This line of storms will move into the NW and Collier County coast later this morning and work its way across the peninsula. Timing still looks to be on track from the previous discussion with late morning- early afternoon for west coast and interior, transitioning to the east coast in the afternoon and evening. The bulk of the activity will push offshore later this evening and tonight.

As far as impacts from the line of showers and thunderstorms there are some inhibiting and enhancing environmental factors that support storms across portions of the CWA.

As the line begins to enter the west coast and western interior there are a few factors that may help enhance a few organized thunderstorm cells to enhance convection. Latest SPC mesoanalysis and RAP model guidance shows a pocket of enhanced effective bulk shear and a tongue increased boundary layer moisture and moisture convergence along the Gulf coast, western interior and Lake region. This may help enhance organization of an isolated cell over the Gulf waters as they move closer to the coast. Therefore, a strong isolated wind gust of 45- 55 mph is possible over this region as the front moves through late morning into the afternoon. This is why the Storm Prediction center upgraded the western half of the region to a marginal risk of severe weather this morning.

As the front moves across the peninsula there will be inhibiting factors for coverage and strength of any showers and storms. First, will be the lack of moisture return over the east coast and the stability in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. The 12z MFL sounding had a dry layer above 850mb and a enhanced cap at this level as well. The precipitable water level was 1.02 inches. Now boundary layer moisture will continue to increase ahead of the frontal passage but it looks to be modest at best. The hi-res models and meso parameters support a storm mode of a broken line of showers and storms as it reaches the east coast later this afternoon and evening. The potential for stronger organized storms will decrease as it moves across the peninsula. But nevertheless, will keep the mention of isolated strong wind gust for the east coast as well, but less confidence of a stronger storm in this region.

Behind the front tonight, drier and cooler air will begin to filter down the peninsula.

Prev Discussion. /issued 635 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020/

Aviation . Winds will veer from southwesterly to northwesterly throughout the TAF period ahead of and behind a cold front passage today. Cold front will bring showers with a few isolated thunderstorms possible. MVFR-IFR cigs/vis will be possible in the heaviest showers and storms which will be handled with TEMPOs as timing confidence increases for terminal impact. Front moves through late morning through the evening across the peninsula NW to SE, with dry and clearing skies behind the FROPA and NW winds overnight.

Prev Discussion . /issued 213 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020/

Short Term (Today through Tuesday) .

Models depict a deepening trough/low complex moving into the E/SE CONUS, and pushing an associated sfc frontal boundary into the eastern Gulf waters and the Florida panhandle. GOES16 imagery and sfc analyses place the pre-frontal related weather just over the western FL Panhandle, and reaching the FL Big Bend overnight.

Today the wind profile will veer to a more S/SW flow ahead of the approaching front, which will help in bringing increasing low level moisture across SoFlo. However, 00Z MFL sounding is still showing the presence of a robust inversion around 850 mb, and even if it gets erased by the FROPA, it should help in keeping the overall moisture fairly shallow through early this afternoon. Meanwhile, the parent trough/low of the frontal boundary should begin lifting NE today and migrate towards the NE CONUS. This will keep the best upper level dynamic support well to the north of SoFlo, leaving daytime heating, moisture advection, and instability associated with the leading edge of the FROPA as the main convective parameters available.

Timing-wise, model solutions are finally showing good consensus in having the main impacts associated with the front reaching the Gulf coast during the late morning hours, then gradually pushing eastward through the afternoon hours. Main hazards will be scattered to numerous showers, and a few possible thunderstorms. However, the lack of dynamic support aloft and the drier conditions in the mid levels will significantly limit chances for deep convection to develop. Therefore, will keep carrying a slight chance of thunderstorms, with best chances in the afternoon hours during max daytime heating. But can not rule out the possibility of having one or two strong storms.

Models finally push the front into the Atlantic waters late tonight, with winds veering NNW behind it, and bringing a much drier and stable air mass. No significant rain is expected on Tuesday as broad/strong high pressure expands across the whole region.

Temperatures today remain warm ahead, and with the FROPA, while the SW flow keeps pushing the warmer moisture into the eastern half of SoFlo. Thus, afternoon highs should reach the mid 80s over the east coast metro areas, and low 80s for Gulf coast and interior areas. On Tuesday, robust colder air advection from the NW will dramatically drop temperatures across the state and SoFlo, with morning lows in the upper 40s-low 50s northern/interior areas, and into the mid- upper 50s over coastal locations. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will struggle to break the upper 60s, making it the first cold weather snap of the season.

Long Term (Tuesday Night through Sunday Night) .

The beginning of the extended forecast period is characterized by the coldest temperatures of the season thus far, with cold air advection firmly in control across the region. Overnight lows along the coastal areas will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Away from the moderating effects of the warmer waters of the Atlantic Ocean/Gulf of Mexico, temperatures across the interior will be in the 40s. There is the potential for a brief dip into the 30s across Glades and Hendry counties on Wednesday morning. With feel-like temperatures in the lower 30s, wind chill values may become a concern in this portion of our region. This will need to be monitored for the potential of meeting Wind Chill Advisory Criteria.

The chill will not last however, as the high pressure aloft continues to propagate eastwards, and this will act to return the prevailing flow across the region to a easterly direction. The easterly flow will act to incite a warming trend as well as allow for the re-introduction of moisture from the warmer Atlantic waters into South Florida. This will moderate the previously dry airmass and lead to a warming trend in lows and highs that will result in near-normal temperatures by the end of the week. Precipitation chances begin to increase in earnest during the overnight hours of Thursday as our first frontal boundary begins to move northwards as a warm front.

The models continue to indicate the passage of a second frontal boundary next weekend. As mentioned in the preceding forecast discussion, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and structure of this frontal passage and the potential impacts that could be felt across our area. Given that the frontal passage is at the end of the forecast period, changes in the forecast will be likely as we progress in time.

Marine .

An approaching cold front will move across the region today with increasing winds and seas. SCA is likely on Tuesday for both the Gulf and Atlantic waters as winds should increase to well above 20 kt at times. Hazardous marine conditions are expected with and after the frontal passage, and possibly persisting through the end of the work week.

Beach Forecast .

There is moderate risk of rip currents for all beaches of Palm Beach county with a lingering NE swell. The risk level over all South Florida beaches will increase again by mid week behind the passage of a cold front.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 83 53 64 52 / 50 20 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 82 56 68 54 / 50 30 0 0 Miami 83 58 68 53 / 50 40 0 0 Naples 77 56 67 45 / 60 10 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.

Update . 33/Kelly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 17 mi56 min SSW 14 G 16 78°F 80°F1015.2 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 24 mi86 min SW 17 G 19 79°F 78°F1015.2 hPa (+1.2)
PEGF1 27 mi56 min SSW 16 G 21 80°F 1014.1 hPa
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 34 mi86 min 75°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 35 mi86 min 76°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi86 min 76°F
MDKF1 36 mi86 min 76°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 38 mi146 min 75°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 38 mi86 min 77°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 39 mi86 min 77°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 39 mi86 min 76°F
MNBF1 39 mi86 min 79°F
JBYF1 40 mi86 min 77°F
NRRF1 40 mi86 min 76°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 41 mi86 min 77°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 41 mi146 min 79°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 41 mi86 min 76°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 41 mi146 min 77°F
HREF1 41 mi86 min 75°F
LRIF1 42 mi86 min 77°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 42 mi86 min 74°F
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 42 mi86 min 76°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 43 mi146 min 77°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 43 mi146 min 76°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 44 mi86 min 77°F
CWAF1 45 mi146 min 77°F
SREF1 46 mi86 min 76°F
WWEF1 46 mi146 min 77°F
TBYF1 47 mi86 min 77°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 47 mi86 min 77°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 49 mi86 min 79°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL10 mi33 minSSW 13 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F66°F62%1014.2 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL11 mi33 minSW 11 G 1910.00 miFair81°F69°F67%1014.1 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL13 mi33 minWSW 12 G 2010.00 miFair81°F66°F61%1014.3 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL18 mi33 minSW 1410.00 miFair83°F68°F61%1014.5 hPa
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL23 mi30 minSW 11 G 2110.00 miFair82°F68°F62%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMIA

Wind History from MIA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmE4CalmNE4NE4CalmSE5SE6SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SE8E9
2 days agoE10E74NE5E9NE8NE3N3CalmN3CalmCalmSE7S3N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmSE6

Tide / Current Tables for Dinner Key Marina, Florida
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Dinner Key Marina
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:31 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:57 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:21 AM EST     2.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:01 PM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:17 PM EST     2.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.80.40.20.20.511.62.12.42.42.11.71.30.90.60.50.711.51.92.22.11.9

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:42 AM EST     -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:15 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 06:27 AM EST     2.04 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:57 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:40 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:21 PM EST     -1.30 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:46 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:14 PM EST     1.64 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:37 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.3-1.4-1.1-0.30.91.8221.60.7-0.3-0.9-1.2-1.3-1.2-0.80.31.31.61.61.30.6-0.4-1.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.