Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tamiami, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:33PM Friday December 13, 2019 8:48 PM EST (01:48 UTC) Moonrise 7:06PMMoonset 8:15AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 352 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Chance of light showers in the evening, then slight chance of light showers after midnight.
Saturday..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Chance of light showers in the morning, then slight chance of light showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday night and Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of light showers in the evening, then chance of light showers after midnight.
Tuesday..South southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Chance of light showers.
Tuesday night..South winds around 5 knots becoming northwest in the morning. Bay waters smooth. Chance of light showers.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Chance of light showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 352 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis.. Scattered showers and a few Thunderstorms will be possible tonight into Saturday, as a cold front approaches the region from the north. The front will then move through the local waters Saturday evening ending the shower and Thunderstorm threat. The weather will then remain dry for Sunday over the local waters. The atlantic winds will be increasing to breezy to windy conditions for the atlantic waters late tonight into Saturday from the southwest direction before swinging to a northerly direction Saturday night into Sunday while decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Rest of the south florida waters will see wind speeds of 15 knots or less through the weekend. Therefore, the small craft advisory has been extended into Saturday evening for the atlantic waters of palm beach county for the windy conditions with an scec for rest of the atlantic waters.
Gulf stream hazards..Northeast swells of 2 to 4 feet this afternoon will dissipating through tonight. This will allow for the seas to subside from 5 to 7 feet this afternoon to 2 to 4 feet by late this weekend into early next week. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 12, 2019 at 1200 utc... 13 nautical miles east of fowey rocks. 19 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 18 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 16 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tamiami, FL
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location: 25.8, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 140044 AAA AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 744 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

Aviation. The weather should remain dry tonight over South Florida with mostly VFR conditions in the ceiling and vis. However, KTMB, KFXE, and KMIA could see reduced, MVFR vis or ceilings with possible fog development right around sunrise. At this time, will not mention in the above TAF sites as the uncertainly is still high. Will let the night shift look into this more, as it gets closer in the taf period.

Update. Low pressure was developing over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening along a stationary front. The low is forecast to move northeast across Northern Florida tonight and into the Western Atlantic waters on Saturday. This will allow for a cold front to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and move southeast towards South Florida tonight before moving through the area on Saturday afternoon.

The winds tonight will mainly be from the southwest direction at speeds of 5 knots or less. This will keep the tropical moisture in place over South Florida and allow for some patchy fog to develop late tonight into early Saturday morning, mainly over the interior areas, which could push into the southeast metro areas of South Florida early Saturday morning. Otherwsie, the rest of the area should remain dry tonight.

As the front pushes through South Florida, some showers and a few thunderstorms should affect the western areas in the morning hours before shifting to the eastern areas in the afternoon. However, the support for thunderstorms will be well northeast of the region by the afternoon. Therefore, the thunder threat should dissipate by the afternoon with mostly showers possible for the east coast metro areas.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned.

Prev Discussion. /issued 339 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019/

Short Term .

This Afternoon through Saturday night :

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue throughout the remainder of this afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front advances towards the region. A few mid-level impulses also march through the region this afternoon and overnight further aiding the development for activity. Best coverage of showers/storms is forecast over the Atlantic and across the eastern half of the Peninsula, particularly Palm Beach county with the southwest steering flow this afternoon. A few storms out over the Atlantic could be fairly strong this afternoon and evening, but southwesterly steering flow should keep them offshore. Morning E winds finally veered from the S/SW this afternoon as an area of low pressure pushes northeastward across the peninsula and treks along the SE CONUS coast. The aforementioned cold front associated with this low will push through South Florida tomorrow with showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Forecast soundings do have relatively decent CAPE and SRH values across the local waters tomorrow morning so wouldn't be surprised if brief areas of rotation were seen. Otherwise, despite this being a rather impressive negatively tilted trough, most upper-level support/dynamics and jet activity stays well to the north of the area. Northwesterly to northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front with slightly cooler, but not too much, and drier air filtering in over the area. Low temperatures Saturday night are forecast to drop into the low 50s west of the Lake to near 60 along the east coast.

Long Term .

Sunday through Monday .

High pressure will then build in over the Southeast CONUS, bringing a brief shot of cooler, drier air to South Florida. As the high continues to slide into the Western Atlantic, surface winds will quickly veer out of the east on Sunday and then southeast by Monday evening. This will help modify the airmass and initiate a gradual increase in moisture through the atmospheric column.

As mentioned, the cool down will be short-lived with Sunday morning temperatures in the 50s across much of South Florida and low 60s along the east coast metro, climbing Monday night into the upper 50s to low 60s with the east coast metro in the mid to upper 60s. Daytime temperatures will also be slightly cooler on Sunday in the upper 70s across the area and low 80s along the southwestern interior. Then in the low to mid 80s on Monday afternoon.

Tuesday through Friday .

The mention of rain returns to the forecast on Tuesday as a deepening low over the Northeast CONUS pushes off the eastern seaboard, dragging the next frontal boundary down the peninsula towards South Florida. While global models continue to differ in the front's intensity, convective coverage should begin to increase Tuesday ahead of the boundary and continue through the day on Wednesday. Activity should consist of mostly scattered showers with much of the upper level support for deeper convection remaining well to the north. However, cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunders.

Behind the boundary, coverage of showers will refocus across the Atlantic waters with drier conditions elsewhere. Also in the wake of the front, cold air will advect into South Florida with overnight lows progged to dip into the upper 40s to low 50s across the interior and Lake Okeechobee region and upper 50s to low 60s along the east coast on Thursday and Friday mornings. Daytime temperatures will range from the low to mid 70s. Given the finer details have yet to be resolved between individual global models and their solutions, have gone with the blended approach for PoPs and temperatures and will continue to monitor as we get closer in time.

Marine .

Hazardous marine conditions continue for the Atlantic waters through Saturday with seas remaining elevated in the Gulf Stream. Winds may diminish overnight but are forecast to increase again Saturday afternoon to advisory levels over the Palm Beach waters. Passing showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across all waters today and tonight as a stalled front over the Lake Region pushes northward. A cold front will push through the area tomorrow, with northwesterly winds in its wake. Hazardous boating conditions are expected to improve in the wake of this front. However, another stronger front will push through around middle of next week and may create hazardous marine conditions at that time.

Aviation .

Generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail into this afternoon, but some shower activity at times could cause some MVFR conditions. Most models keep the heavier SHRA and TS offshore in the Atlantic waters, but again, east coast sites may see a passing shower through 00Z this evening with KPBI having the chance through 04Z. If TS were able to develop along the coast, KPBI has the greatest potential, but due to low confidence, omitted from TAFs at this time. Winds gradually become southwesterly through the period as a cold front approaches the region with breezy SW to W winds tomorrow. Chances for SHRA exist tomorrow morning and early afternoon, but again, low confidence on coverage and timing is causing omission from TAFs.

Beach Forecast .

A high risk of rip currents is forecast for the Atlantic beaches through at least Saturday evening as lingering swell continues to affect the coast. Rough surf will also be possible for the Palm Beaches. Rip currents should improve some this weekend before elevating again early next week with breezy east flow.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 69 82 58 77 / 10 40 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 70 84 61 78 / 0 30 0 0 Miami 70 85 61 79 / 0 30 0 0 Naples 70 80 58 79 / 10 60 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for AMZ650-670.

GM . None.

Update . 54/BNB Marine . 03/Fell Aviation . 54/BNB Beach Forecast . 03/Fell Short Term . 03/Fell Long Term . 11/HVN


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 17 mi55 min WSW 7 G 8.9 76°F 78°F1012.3 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 24 mi49 min SW 8 G 8.9 76°F 76°F1012.8 hPa (+0.0)
PEGF1 27 mi55 min SW 7 G 9.9 77°F 1012.6 hPa
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 34 mi109 min 75°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 35 mi109 min 75°F
MDKF1 36 mi109 min 78°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi109 min 74°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 38 mi109 min 80°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 38 mi169 min 76°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 39 mi109 min 77°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 39 mi109 min 78°F
JBYF1 40 mi109 min 78°F
NRRF1 40 mi109 min 76°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 41 mi109 min 78°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 41 mi169 min 80°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 41 mi169 min 78°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 41 mi109 min 76°F
HREF1 41 mi109 min 74°F
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 42 mi109 min 76°F
THRF1 42 mi169 min 77°F
LRIF1 42 mi109 min 78°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 42 mi109 min 75°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 43 mi169 min 78°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 43 mi169 min 78°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 44 mi109 min 78°F
CWAF1 45 mi169 min 77°F
SREF1 46 mi109 min 75°F
WWEF1 46 mi169 min 78°F
TBYF1 47 mi109 min 79°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 47 mi109 min 79°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL10 mi56 minWSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F64°F66%1012.7 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL11 mi56 minW 710.00 miFair73°F68°F84%1012.6 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL13 mi56 minWSW 510.00 miFair74°F66°F76%1012.8 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL18 mi56 minWSW 510.00 miFair75°F66°F74%1012.9 hPa
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL23 mi1.9 hrsSW 410.00 miFair71°F67°F87%1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMIA

Wind History from MIA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E6E8E6E4SE4E8SE6E7E7E3E4E5SE7SE8S8S8S7S10SW8SW7W9
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1 day agoN3N5E11NE6CalmN3N3N5N33N5NE5E9NE3NE6E5E5E10
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2 days agoE6SE5E3SE3SE7SE5SE6SE5SE3SE5SE4SE5SE8SE8SE9SE10SE10
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CalmNE4E3CalmN5

Tide / Current Tables for Dinner Key Marina, Florida
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Dinner Key Marina
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:14 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:14 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:05 AM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:47 PM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:06 PM EST     2.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.510.50.1-0.1-00.41.11.72.22.42.321.61.10.60.40.30.511.622.22.1

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:30 AM EST     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:05 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:43 AM EST     2.33 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:13 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:31 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:13 PM EST     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:38 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:57 PM EST     1.92 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:33 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-1.6-1.4-1-0.11.22.22.32.11.60.6-0.5-1.2-1.5-1.4-1.2-0.70.51.61.91.71.40.6-0.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.