Saturday, September19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Miami Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:21PM Saturday September 19, 2020 1:38 PM EDT (17:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:23AMMoonset 8:17PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 1010 Am Edt Sat Sep 19 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday evening...
Rest of today..Southwest winds around 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters smooth. Slight chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..West southwest winds around 5 knots. Along the coast, seas around 2 feet. In the gulf stream, seas around 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet after midnight. Period 3 seconds increasing to 10 seconds after midnight. Intracoastal waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..West winds around 5 knots becoming north 5 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Along the coast, seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. In the gulf stream, seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. Period 10 seconds. North swell 4 feet increasing to 3 to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms
showers likely
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet. Period 10 seconds. North northwest swell 3 to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet along the coast and 9 to 11 feet with occasional to 14 feet in the gulf stream. North swell 3 to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers likely. Chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet along the coast and 9 to 11 feet with occasional to 14 feet in the gulf stream. North swell 3 to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Chance of showers late in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet. North swell 3 to 4 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Slight chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..East northeast winds around 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. North swell around 3 feet late in the evening. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers late in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1010 Am Edt Sat Sep 19 2020
Synopsis.. Winds will transition to a more westerly direction ahead of a southward moving surface boundary this weekend. As the boundary moves through, winds quickly transition to a northerly to northeasterly direction. Hazardous marine conditions will develop late Saturday into Sunday as swell from the distant hurricane teddy arrive along the atlantic waters and the gradient wind builds. Winds and swells will be elevated across the waters through at least early next week.
Gulf stream hazards..Increasing wind speeds and wave heights late this weekend into early next week. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 19, 2020 at 1200 utc... 3 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 12 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 7 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 9 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Miami Beach, FL
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location: 25.93, -80.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 191440 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1040 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Update.

Quiet weather so far this morning, as the only active convection is in the form of benign showers over the outer Atlantic waters. Latest visible satellite imagery does indicate horizontal convective roll development, as is typical this time of year with a conditionally unstable boundary layer. Steering flow remains very weak (850-300 hPa mean wind < 5 kts), owing to a weak high pressure system centered over the South Florida Atlantic coastline. The weak synoptic flow and lack of cloud cover over land should allow for typical sea-breeze development today, along both the Atlantic and Gulf coastlines. This will act as the main triggering mechanism for any showers/storms that do develop today.

A light SSW surface wind along the southern portion of the forecast region backs a bit towards the E/NE along the Atlantic coastline. This should pin the Atlantic sea-breeze along the Atlantic coastline, favoring shower/storm development across portions of the metro region. While the environment in not favorable for strong convection today (owing to modest subsidence and paltry shear values), a swath of higher precipitable water indices is likely to develop along most of the Atlantic metros this afternoon. Given the aforementioned weaker steering flow, localized flooding is the main threat, where storms develop along the sea-breeze and meander and/or backbuild. Higher wind gusts are possible if storms are able to develop within a favorable mesoscale environment.

Prev Discussion. /issued 730 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020/

Aviation . The winds will be light and variable through the morning, before a east coast sea breeze develops this afternoon along the east coast TAF sites. However, the east coast sea breeze will only get push into the far western areas of the east coast. Therefore, KTMB will remain westerly this afternoon. Speeds will be 5 to 10 knots this afternoon at all of the TAF sites. KAPF taf site will be westerly this afternoon. VCTS for the east coast TAF sites from 18Z until 23Z while KAPF taf site remains dry. Ceiling and Vis will remain in VFR conditions, but could fall down into MVFR or even IFR conditions with any shower or storm this afternoon over the east coast TAF sites.

Prev Discussion . /issued 354 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020/

Increasing rain chances through the weekend. Hazardous marine conditions developing late this weekend.

Short Term (Today through Sunday) .

A complicated setup with a weak boundary lingering across south central Florida again today, allowing all of southern Florida to remain in a warm, moist airmass. To the west, Tropical Storm Beta continues its development in the western Gulf and well to the east is major Hurricane Teddy moving northwestward over the Atlantic Ocean. As the weekend continues, Teddy will approach Bermuda and begin to interact with a trough located around the eastern seaboard of the United States. This interaction will allow the boundary to shift slightly from it's Central Florida perch.

Moving to the smaller scale, the warm and moist conditions and weak westerly flow should allow sea breezes to form again today. The flow regime will favor the Gulf sea breeze while pinning to Atlantic sea breeze. Thus the collision between the sea breezes today will likely be located fairly close to the east coast metro areas again, if not over the area. Regions south and east from Lake Okeechobee are once again more likely to see showers and storms develop this afternoon. The slow storm motion could again allow for a vigorous cell to be capable of producing torrential rainfall which could lead to isolated street flooding, particularly in previously saturated or poorly draining areas. Cannot rule out a strong storm or two either day, but the warm atmospheric profile keeps impacts limited to mainly gusty winds, lightning, and the aforementioned rain threat.

As the evening comes, convection should diminish over land and what remains should push into the Atlantic. Overnight, convection could continue over the local waters. A mid-level trough amplifies over the state on Sunday as Beta shifts closer to Texas, allowing for slightly higher shower and thunderstorm chances across South Florida. Some additional cloud cover on Sunday could help keep temperatures a degree or two cooler compared to previous days.

Long Term (Monday through Saturday) .

Monday .

By Monday, the weak quasi-stationary surface boundary will continue to progress southward across South Florida and eventually into the Florida Straits. Ahead of the boundary, enhanced low-level moisture convergence and moderate northeasterly gradient flow will support the development of isolated to scattered fast-moving showers and storms. Convection should generally spread from the Atlantic metro areas southwestward along the moist low-level air mass throughout the day. While poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the overall intensity of convection, marginal instability (SBCAPE near 1500 J/kg) coincident with enhanced lower-level flow/shear could support a few loosely-organized convective structures capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and brief heavy downpours. Maximum temperatures will be slightly below average (upper 80s across most of South Florida).

Tuesday .

The southward progression of the aforementioned surface boundary will be aided by an amplifying shortwave trough traversing the northeastern CONUS and Hurricane Teddy progressing northward across the western Atlantic toward the Canadian Maritimes. The interaction between these features and an enhanced pressure gradient peripheral to anomalously strong cP high pressure across the eastern CONUS should support the advection of a drier air mass (PWs 1.1 to 1.5 in) across South Florida on Monday night into Tuesday. This will allow for a breezy/gusty day across South Florida with rather low precipitation chances. Any convection that does develop should be fast-moving and shallow due to the presence of warm/dry mid-level air and moderate background flow. Maximum temperatures will be slightly below average (middle to upper 80s across South Florida), while dewpoints should drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s (supporting a rather comfortable day).

Wednesday .

By Wednesday, medium-range model guidance depicts winds veering to an easterly direction, facilitating slight air mass modification across South Florida (PWs climbing back to near 1.7 in). While dry mid-level air should remain in place, shallow westward moving convection will be possible. Intensity and coverage of convection should be limited with depleted mid-level moisture and weak convective instability (MUCAPE near 600 J/kg). Maximum temperatures will remain slightly below average across South Florida (middle to upper 80s) and dewpoints in the lower 70s.

Thursday through the weekend .

By Thursday, the air mass across South Florida will continue to modify (PWs increasing to greater than 2.0 in) with low-level flow veering to a southeasterly and eventually southwesterly direction. Deterministic model solutions and ensemble members depict increasing convective chances/coverage across South Florida, as the aforementioned weak boundary over the Florida Straits attempts to lift northward as a warm front. There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding the evolution of this pattern, as Tropical Storm Beta in the western Gulf will be an influential factor. Regardless, a notable increase in convection capable of producing locally heavy rainfall will be a concern in the extended period. The details regarding specific convective hazards will become more clear in upcoming forecast cycles, therefore, interests across South Florida are urged to keep up with the latest from NWS Miami.

Marine . A frontal boundary lingers over south central Florida, increasing rain and thunderstorm chances across the local waters for the weekend. Swells from Hurricane Teddy begin to arrive and seas will build by Sunday in the Atlantic. Breezy NE winds behind the frontal boundary will result in continued building seas and additional swells in the Atlantic early next week. Wind gusts may approach gale force with advisory conditions expected across most of the local waters at some point late this weekend into early next week. Small Craft Advisories will be issued with this package for the Atlantic waters off South Florida with future issuances potentially expanding the advisories to include Lake Okeechobee, Biscayne Bay, and the Gulf waters as necessary.

Beach Forecast . NE swell off the Palm Beach coast will allow an elevated risk of rip currents to persist through the weekend. Easterly swell through the Providence channel will arrive during the weekend with northerly swell from the Atlantic joining in later in the weekend into early next week. This could lead to the elevated risk of rip currents spreading southward along the Atlantic coast of South Florida and lingering well into next week.

Astronomically higher than normal tides may result in minor coastal flooding along coastal Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties and isolated minor coastal flooding in Collier County through Sunday evening. Tides are running above predictions with the last couple of high tide cycles reaching to around 1.5 feet MHHW along the Atlantic and that trend is expected to keep rising with the potential of the moderate impact level of 1.7 feet MHHW being reached or exceeded during high tides today, tonight, and Sunday. The Gulf tides may remain closer to 1.5 feet MHHW due to the lack of swell, though the building westerly flow could help keep values slightly higher than that. Accordingly, the Atlantic coast will be upgraded to a Coastal Flood Advisory with the Coastal Flood Statement remaining for the Gulf coast.

Prev Discussion . /issued 140 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020/

Aviation . Generally westerly to southwesterly flow, though sea breezes may turn the east coast terminals easterly or southeasterly late morning into the afternoon. Sea breezes will serve as focus for convection with collisions favored near the east coast terminals in the afternoon. Sub-VFR conditions and gusty, variable winds possible around the east coast terminals with afternoon and evening convection.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 91 77 88 78 / 30 30 70 60 Fort Lauderdale 91 78 90 79 / 40 20 80 60 Miami 92 77 90 78 / 50 30 80 60 Naples 91 76 90 75 / 10 20 70 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172-173.

AM . Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ651-671.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ650-670.

GM . None.

Update . 09/Bhatti Marine . 02/RAG Aviation . 17/AR Beach Forecast . 02/RAG Short Term . 02/RAG Long Term . 18/Weinman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PEGF1 11 mi57 min 86°F 1012.8 hPa
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 14 mi51 min SE 6 G 8 87°F 88°F1013.4 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 24 mi39 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 85°F 85°F1013.2 hPa (-0.4)
MDKF1 46 mi99 min 89°F
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 48 mi51 min ESE 5.1 G 6 86°F 86°F1012.2 hPa74°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 49 mi99 min 92°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL6 mi46 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy92°F73°F56%1012.9 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL7 mi46 minWSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F72°F57%1012.8 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL10 mi46 minVar 410.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F73°F61%1012.6 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL10 mi46 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds92°F75°F58%1012.2 hPa
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL19 mi46 minVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds93°F72°F50%1012.6 hPa
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL22 mi46 minESE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F77°F68%1012.5 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL24 mi46 minVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds92°F77°F62%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWO

Wind History from HWO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S8S13SE8S11S7SW8NW7NW8N5NW4N3CalmSW3SW3CalmCalmCalmW3NW33W3W6Calm
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SW9S7S9S7S6S5SW7SW5SW3CalmS3S3S3CalmS4S4S4S8S9SW8SW7W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Dumfoundling Bay, Florida
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Dumfoundling Bay
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Sat -- 06:12 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:59 AM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:40 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.621.30.60.1-0.100.61.42.22.83.12.92.41.81.10.50.10.10.41.11.92.6

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:32 AM EDT     -2.11 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:29 AM EDT     2.66 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:01 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:05 PM EDT     -2.00 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:08 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:46 PM EDT     2.40 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-1.7-2.1-2.1-1.8-10.51.92.62.62.31.40-1.2-1.8-2-1.9-1.4-0.21.32.22.42.21.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.