Tuesday, December1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Aventura, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:29PM Tuesday December 1, 2020 4:10 AM EST (09:10 UTC) Moonrise 6:37PMMoonset 7:53AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 337 Am Est Tue Dec 1 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet along the coast and 4 to 6 feet with occasional to 8 feet in the gulf stream. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots along the coast to north northeast 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 3 feet along the coast and 5 to 7 feet with occasional to 9 feet in the gulf stream. Period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots along the coast to northeast 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 3 feet along the coast and 4 to 6 feet with occasional to 8 feet in the gulf stream. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas.
Wednesday night..East northeast winds around 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet along the coast and 3 to 5 feet with occasional to 6 feet in the gulf stream. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Thursday and Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Friday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..East southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..South southeast winds around 10 knots becoming southwest in the evening. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 337 Am Est Tue Dec 1 2020
Synopsis.. A cold front moved through south florida last night. This will allow for high pressure to build into the florida peninsula today and into tonight. Expect hazardous marine conditions to continue and last through at least midweek. Marine conditions will then gradually subside towards the end of the forecast period as high pressure returns to the region.
Gulf stream hazards..Hazardous seas and gusty winds behind the frontal passage. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 01, 2020 at 1200 utc... 4 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 9 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 6 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 5 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aventura, FL
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location: 25.95, -80.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 010752 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 252 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

Short Term (Today through Wednesday).

A cold front continues to push through our Atlantic waters early this morning. Behind the front, temperatures have dropped into the upper 50s and 60s across the CWFA this morning. Winds will continue to to shift to a more northerly direction through the day. This will allow for CAA to keep warming from insolation rather limited.

Tonight skies should clear across the region, which will help temperatures drop more efficiently. However, there remains enough of a pressure gradient across the area to keep winds in the 5-10mph range overnight. Thought is this will keep temperatures, even across the interior from dropping as low as they would otherwise. With the wind limiting just a bit, nudged temperatures upward a skosh from the previous forecast, especially across Hendry and Glades County. That said, since winds will be in the 5-10mph range, we'll need to watch wind chills as they may approach or exceed Wind Chill Advisory thresholds across Glades and Hendry County.

On Wednesday a warming trend will begin as winds begin to veer more easterly allowing for warmer air and more moist air to begin to advect back into the region. Although temperatures will moderate just a bit, still expect slightly below average across much of the CWFA to round out the short term period.

Long Term. Wednesday Night through Monday Night .

High pressure remains over the area through most of the week. By Wednesday night, the high should slide eastward, and allow an easterly flow to return to the area, allowing for a warming and moistening trend.

To the northwest, over the central plains, a strong 500mb low slowly digs to the southeast. As it encounters the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, cyclogenesis should occur just off the coast of the Florida Panhandle. According to the GFS, this surface low should progress in a similar track as the low that just moved across the eastern US. There is an accompanying cold front that should move across the area over the weekend.

Looking at the ECMWF, the low develops a little further south, and tracks more eastward, getting entangled with another cold front associated with a surface low to the north of New England. The ECMWF has the low bringing a dry cold frontal passage about the same time the GFS has the front coming through.

With such a difference, kept a slight chance of PoPs in for now. If the GFS solution is correct, rain may start early Saturday morning, keeping the CWA overcast for the day, allowing for showers, but reducing insolation, and not very unstable. So, no thunderstorms are mentioned at this time. However, they may need to be introduced as time gets closer and the models hopefully increase in their agreement.

Behind this front, a cooler air mass advects into the area. however, this air mass currently does not look to be as cold as it will be over the next couple of days.


Marine.

Hazardous marine conditions will continue through midweek, especially across the Atlantic waters where the pressure gradient remains rather tight for longer. There may be a bit of a break as high pressure moves east to our north on Wednesday and into Thursday, however, a developing low near the Sabine River will help tighten pressure gradient once again later this week. At least SCEC perhaps SCA conditions will be possible then as well.

Aviation (06z TAFs).

Conditions will be clearing overnight as a cold front continues to push south and eastward. Northerly winds will be gusty at times, especially during the day. Some gusts may approach 20 knots. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through much of the day and through the end of the cycle.

Beach Forecast. Long shore currents will be possible for both the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico today. There may be some rip component with the higher surf across the Gulf so rip current statement is out for Collier Beaches. Eventually an onshore flow will take over on Wednesday increasing the rip current threat along the Atlantic beaches.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 66 47 72 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 69 51 74 63 / 0 0 0 0 Miami 69 52 74 64 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 68 43 72 57 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EST this morning through this evening for FLZ069.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-651- 670-671.

GM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for GMZ656-657- 676.

Marine . 28/Frye Aviation . 28/Frye Beach Forecast . 28/Frye Short Term . 28/Frye Long Term . 13


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PEGF1 9 mi52 min NW 19 G 26
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 15 mi52 min NW 6 G 11 65°F 80°F1016.4 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 25 mi70 min NNW 25 G 28 66°F 76°F1016.2 hPa (+0.6)
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 46 mi52 min NW 11 G 14 61°F 78°F1015.7 hPa50°F
MDKF1 48 mi70 min 78°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL6 mi77 minNW 16 G 2110.00 miOvercast65°F55°F73%1016.5 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL8 mi77 minNW 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F59°F78%1015.7 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL8 mi77 minNNW 17 G 2110.00 miOvercast63°F53°F70%1016.4 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL12 mi77 minNW 11 G 2210.00 miOvercast65°F55°F70%1016.1 hPa
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL17 mi77 minNW 9 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F54°F73%1016.3 hPa
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL21 mi77 minNW 17 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F53°F70%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWO

Wind History from HWO (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6E6SE7E8SE9SE7E9E8SE7SE4SE4SE4SE4SE4SE4CalmS3S3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmNW3E5N3CalmE34W3S3SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Dumfoundling Bay, Florida
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Dumfoundling Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:23 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:52 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:19 AM EST     2.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:55 PM EST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:15 PM EST     2.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.30.80.40.20.20.61.11.82.32.52.52.21.91.410.70.60.81.21.72.12.32.2

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:35 AM EST     -1.39 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:54 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:34 AM EST     2.08 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:52 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:20 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:21 PM EST     -1.26 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:26 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:43 PM EST     1.68 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:18 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.4-1.4-1.3-0.80.11.322.11.91.40.4-0.6-1.1-1.3-1.2-1.1-0.40.61.51.71.51.10.3-0.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.