Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Aventura, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:32PM Friday December 13, 2019 3:30 AM EST (08:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:04PMMoonset 8:14AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 315 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am est this morning...
Today..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots along the coast to south southeast 10 to 15 knots in the gulf stream. Along the coast, seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. In the gulf stream, seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet in the afternoon. Period 9 seconds. North swell around 3 feet in the morning. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of light showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Period 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of light showers through the night.
Saturday..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of light showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Sunday night and Monday..East winds 10 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots along the coast to southeast 15 to 20 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Chance of light showers after midnight.
Tuesday..South southeast winds 5 to 15 knots along the coast to south southeast 10 to 15 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of light showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 315 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis.. Scattered showers and a few Thunderstorms will be possible today as a frontal boundary over the lake region slowly pushes northward. The small craft advisory for the atlantic has been extended due to lingering wave action in the gulf stream, but conditions should gradually improve over the next day or so. A cold front will push through the area tomorrow with winds becoming northwesterly in its wake. However, hazardous boating conditions are not expected in the wake of this front. Another, stronger front should push through the area around midweek next week.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas 7 to 9 feet today. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 12, 2019 at 1200 utc... 13 nautical miles east of fowey rocks. 19 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 18 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 16 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aventura, FL
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location: 25.95, -80.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 130531 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1231 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

Aviation. Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period with some passing showers possible across the East Coast TAF sites. Brief periods of MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible with passing showers. Winds gradually become southwesterly through the period as a cold front approaches the region.

Prev Discussion. /issued 737 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019/

Update . A stationary front over the Lake Okeechobee region will move move slowly northward tonight into Central Florida, as low pressure starts to develop in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. This should allow for some drier air to work into South Florida late tonight from the south leading to a decrease in coverage of showers over the east and west coast metro areas through the evening hours. However, there could still be a few showers in the overnight hours along the east coast metro areas due to the easterly wind flow over South Florida. Therefore, plan on lowering the POPs to isolated coverage along the east coast metro areas for late tonight and removing the POPs over the interior and west coast metro areas after midnight.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned.

Prev Discussion . /issued 327 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019/

Short Term .

Tonight through Saturday night .

A frontal boundary stalled around the Lake Okeechobee region will begin to retreat back northward overnight. Bountiful amounts of moisture remain over the region, allowing for showers to develop and focus over portions of the area including along the east coast metro and potentially the Gulf coast metro areas this afternoon and evening. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two, particularly in areas around the frontal boundary. The focus for most of the convection will remain from the Interstate 75/Alligator Alley/Interstate 595 corridor northward, though overnight into Friday morning the focus will shift back towards the Atlantic coast.

Aloft, a mid-level shortwave trough running ahead of the main trough axis will push across the region tonight into Friday morning which could spur that additional convection referenced in the previous paragraph. Once that has pushed east, the main trough axis begins to advance eastward. Accordingly, the surface frontal boundary will push across the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards the peninsula of Florida on Friday night into Saturday. As the sun rises on Saturday morning, the surface front will be knocking on the door of southern Florida.

With the surface low somewhere along the southern Atlantic coast early Saturday morning and then quickly pushing towards the Mid- Atlantic states, the location of the low and trailing frontal boundary will be important to monitor. If the frontal boundary is able to clear across the peninsula into the Atlantic, drier and cooler air behind it will allow for the weekend to dry out faster. If the boundary stalls or lingers across or close to the peninsula, some portions of Southeast Florida could see some chances of rain. The forecast will feature a slight chance of showers for Saturday afternoon to acknowledge this potential for the forecast to change.

By Saturday night/early Sunday morning, things should begin to dry out and temperatures will begin to decrease. Mid to upper 50s will sneak into the Lake Okeechobee region while upper 50s to around 60 will reach into much of Southwest Florida. The majority of Southeast Florida will remain in the 60s.

Long Term .

Sunday through Monday .

Drier and slightly cooler conditions will continue across the region Sunday into Monday, as high pressure quickly builds over the Southeast CONUS behind the aforementioned cold front. As the surface anticyclone continues sliding eastward, winds will follow suit, swinging out of the east then southeast, effectively increasing available moisture through mid week.

Temperatures will also slowly creep back up across the area as winds increase out of the east. Afternoon temperatures will be near 80 along the east coast and mid 80s across southwestern portions. Evening temperatures will also reflect a gradual warming trend with coldest lows Sunday night in the mid 50s across the Lake region to mid 60s along the east coast. By Monday night, most of the region will experience temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s with the east coast in the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday through Thursday .

The mention of rain then returns to the forecast on Tuesday, ahead of the next cold front, which will begin it's decent down the peninsula. While global models maintain similar timing, they have slowed down a pinch, depicting a frontal passage on Wednesday instead of Tuesday evening. The GFS remains the weaker solution with the front losing it's upper level support shortly after passage, while the ECMWF maintains a more robust, convective boundary. Regardless, scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday ahead of the front through the afternoon and early evening hours on Wednesday.

One concern prior to the front's arrival is the chance of patchy fog early Wednesday morning across South Florida, with isolated areas of fog possible over the interior.

Behind the boundary, the ECMWF unsurprisingly depicts stronger cold air advection and blended guidance has dropped overnight temperatures a degree or two from the previous forecast. However, temperatures are still progged to dip into the upper 40s to low 50s near Lake Okeechobee and low 60s along the east coast early Thursday and Friday morning. Thus, given this is still close to the end of the forecast period, and models differ substantially with the finer details, have maintained a middle of the road solution and will continue to monitor as we get closer in time.

Marine . Hazardous boating conditions will continue over the Atlantic coastal waters requiring a Small Craft Advisory with the arrival of a north swell and winds to around 20 knots. These conditions are expected to peak tonight, then begin to subside on Friday as the swells decrease and the winds veer to the SE and weaken. Generally benign weather is expected for the weekend.

Aviation . A stalled front around Lake Okeechobee will keep convection focused along and north of an FLL-APF line this afternoon. Some Atlantic showers could still sneak into MIA/OPF/TMB. Sub-VFR conditions are possible with convection. Activity should decrease later this evening into the overnight with Atlantic convection flaring back up late overnight into the morning hours.

Beach Forecast . An increasing northerly swell will bring an elevated rip current risk and possibly rough surf to the Atlantic beaches through tonight. This swell will begin to subside on Friday, but an elevated rip current risk may linger through the weekend into early next week for many of the Atlantic beaches.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 79 65 82 61 / 30 30 20 0 Fort Lauderdale 79 68 82 64 / 30 30 10 0 Miami 81 68 83 64 / 30 30 10 0 Naples 80 67 80 60 / 20 30 30 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM . None.

Aviation . 32/MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PEGF1 9 mi54 min E 15 G 20 78°F 1016.8 hPa
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 15 mi54 min E 12 G 15 77°F 78°F1016.3 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 25 mi30 min E 18 G 20 77°F 77°F1016.4 hPa (-2.2)
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 46 mi48 min E 15 G 19 76°F 77°F1017.9 hPa
MDKF1 48 mi90 min 79°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL6 mi37 minESE 510.00 miOvercast74°F69°F85%1017 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL8 mi37 minESE 1210.00 miA Few Clouds75°F69°F82%1016.2 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL8 mi37 minESE 410.00 miFair72°F69°F91%1016.9 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL12 mi37 minESE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F66°F74%1016.6 hPa
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL17 mi37 minE 1410.00 miOvercast75°F70°F84%1016.5 hPa
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL21 mi37 minESE 137.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F68°F77%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWO

Wind History from HWO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N6NE9NW4N7CalmCalmE6E10--E6E8SE10E10E5E3------E5CalmCalm4SE5
1 day agoCalmCalmSE5SE4SE4SE8SE9SE9SE12SE11SE113S3CalmE5E3NW4NW3NE6E9S4NW3NW4NW4
2 days agoSE6SE6SE5SE5SE10--SE11SE14SE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Dumfoundling Bay, Florida
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Dumfoundling Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:31 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:14 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:27 AM EST     2.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:04 PM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:28 PM EST     2.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.20.60.2-0.1-0.10.30.91.62.22.52.52.31.81.30.80.50.30.50.91.522.32.3

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:30 AM EST     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:05 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:43 AM EST     2.33 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:13 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:31 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:13 PM EST     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:38 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:57 PM EST     1.92 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:33 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-1.6-1.4-1-0.11.22.22.32.11.60.6-0.5-1.2-1.5-1.4-1.2-0.70.51.61.91.71.40.6-0.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.