Thursday, October1, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Dania Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:07PM Thursday October 1, 2020 1:54 PM EDT (17:54 UTC) Moonrise 6:22PMMoonset 5:54AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 937 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Rest of today..East northeast winds around 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet along the coast and 2 to 3 feet in the gulf stream. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East southeast winds around 5 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas less than 2 feet along the coast and 2 to 3 feet in the gulf stream. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of Thunderstorms late in the evening. Showers likely through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..North northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers likely through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East southeast winds around 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms late in the evening, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday and Sunday night..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 937 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Synopsis..A stalled frontal boundary across the region will continue to support unsettled weather across the local waters. Scattered to locally numerous showers and storms will be possible each day, with the highest chances during the overnight and morning hours. Locally strong wind gusts, visibility reductions in heavy downpours, and a few waterspouts will all be possible. The unsettled weather pattern will likely continue through this weekend into next week with the lingering frontal boundary and enhanced tropical moisture.
Gulf stream hazards..None the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of oct 01, 2020 at 1200 utc... 4 nautical miles east southeast of fowey rocks. 8 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 8 nautical miles east of lake worth. 13 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dania Beach, FL
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location: 26.09, -80.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 011714 AAC AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 114 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

. 18z Aviation Update .

Aviation. VFR conditions expected with MVFR reductions possible through this cycle. Intermittent showers and T'storms will be possible through the cycle, especially over the Atlantic terminals. Coverage will be the greatest this afternoon and evening, however, exact timing is somewhat uncertain. Short fused tempos may be needed. Otherwise, light northerly winds can be expected.

Prev Discussion. /issued 1110 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020/

Update .

A stalled frontal boundary across the region will continue to support an unsettled weather pattern across South Florida today. The quasi-stationary frontal boundary and associated weak confluent flow is maintaining deep tropical moisture across the area (PW of 2.14 in) and light easterly to northeasterly boundary layer flow. The MFL 12Z RAOB shows a tall/somewhat skinny CAPE profile with relatively light SSW steering flow, which will support efficient precipitation production and slow moving/backbuilding storms. GOES-16 visible imagery shows relatively clear skies across the eastern portions of South Florida, which will promote sufficient boundary-layer destabilization/east coast sea breeze development. In addition, a slight enhancement to the bulk shear is evident across the northern portions of South Florida, which could support a few loosely-organized convective clusters capable of producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Showers and storms should begin to develop along an Atlantic sea breeze and any other density gradients that arise this afternoon, especially where localized convergence becomes maximized. The primary concern for the remainder of the day will be locally heavy rainfall and flooding along the east coast metros, where WPC is maintaining a slight risk of excessive rainfall for today. A particular area to watch today will be coastal/metro Palm Beach County, where heavy rainfall saturated the soils last night and enhanced runoff could materialize with additional rainfall. While locally heavy rainfall and flooding remain a concern for this afternoon, there is some uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat. Please keep up with the latest information from NWS Miami.

Prev Discussion . /issued 825 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020/

Aviation (12Z TAFs) .

A stalled frontal boundary across the region will keep deep moisture and enhanced rain and storm chances in place. Confidence in the timing and coverage of convection for today remains low at this time, though coverage should increase after 18Z. Anticipate MVFR to locally IFR cigs/vis in any heavy downpours this afternoon and evening.

Prev Discussion . /issued 347 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020/

Flooding Possible Into This Weekend .

Short Term .

Today .

A coastal trough has set up over the east coastal metro areas early this morning. This has allowed for a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop over the metro areas of Palm Beach County early this morning. There was also showers and thunderstorm developing over the coastal areas of Miami-Dade and southern coastal areas of Broward County. These showers and thunderstorms should continue over the metro area of Palm Beach County though rest of the early morning hours and fill in over rest of the coastal areas of Broward and Miami-Dade Counties through rest of the early morning hours. Heavy rainfall is expected from these showers and thunderstorms as the satellite images are showing the PWAT values are around 2.1 to 2.3 inches which is near the maximum values for this time of year.

The coastal trough should dissipate through the morning hours, as the surface winds become more northeast. However, showers and thunderstorms will continue over South Florida today as the stationary front remains over the southern areas of South Florida keeping the PWAT values in the 2 to 2.3 inch range. The mid to upper level trough will also remain over the eastern areas of the United States today keeping the steering flow in the south to southwest direction. Therefore, there could still be training of showers and thunderstorms today over the region especially over the eastern areas with heavy rainfall that could lead to some flooding especially over the east coastal areas where it is currently raining.

Long Term .

Tonight through Sunday .

A highly meridional flow pattern will evolve across North America featuring western U.S. ridging and mean eastern troughing. The upper trough will gradually propagate into the Atlantic coastal states, with mid-upper ridging shunted towards the eastern Bahamas in response to the digging wave. A stationary frontal zone should extend from the Yucatan Peninsula into far southern Florida early in the period, with a tendency to slowly drift poleward with time. Deep moisture will reside along the frontal boundary, with east-northeast low-level flow enhancing boundary layer convergence along the Atlantic coastal areas. Several parameters are favorable for a heavy rain event, including tall skinny CAPE profiles, deep warm cloud depths, and precipitable water values exceeding 2.2 inches. Warm rain processes are therefore expected with rain rates potentially exceeding 2-4 inches per hour. Street and urban flooding is probable in this environment. However, an additional concern is the potential for localized training/backbuilding of thunderstorm clusters given the anticipated frontal upglide/coastal convergence. This may bring a flash flooding risk as well should this scenario occur. There is currently low confidence in placing the greatest flash flooding threat, as this depends on mesoscale details not yet elucidated. However this setup suggests the Atlantic coastal portions of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade Counties would be most vulnerable. An aggravating factor is the high astronomical tides, and the potential amplification of any flood event should heavy rainfall coincide with a high tide cycle. A reasonable worst case scenario for total rain amounts is 4-6 inches along the Atlantic coastal/metro areas, tapering off to 2-3 inches for the interior, Gulf Coast, and Lake Okeechobee regions. As always, isolated higher totals are possible. Given this potential, a Flood Watch was issued for the Atlantic coastal and metro areas through this weekend.

Monday through Wednesday .

A progressive flow pattern remains across the CONUS, as shortwave perturbations progress through the mean eastern trough. The aforementioned frontal zone should remain stalled in our vicinity keeping rain/thunderstorm chances above the climatological mean. The evolution of a low pressure system over the northwest Caribbean Sea could also enhance deep moisture across our area depending upon its development (or lack thereof). Regardless of whether tropical development evolves, localized heavy rain and flooding may remain a concern with the front sticking around. This is especially true if a heavy rain event evolves across some portion of our area over the weekend. Keep up with forecast changes.

Marine .

A cold front across the region will continue to bring northerly or northeasterly winds through the remainder of the workweek before a more easterly transition takes shape this weekend. Outside of the potential for scattered showers and storms, wind and seas should remain somewhat favorable through Friday. On Saturday pressure gradient begins to increase, especially over the Gulf waters as a surface low develops across the western Caribbean.

Hydrology .

Total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible into this weekend with isolated higher amounts. This may lead to flooding and/or flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Sunday for the Atlantic metro and coastal areas.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 74 85 74 85 / 60 60 30 70 Fort Lauderdale 76 86 76 86 / 70 70 50 80 Miami 76 86 76 87 / 60 70 60 80 Naples 73 84 71 85 / 50 50 40 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Flood Watch through Sunday evening for FLZ068-072-074-168-172- 173.

AM . None. GM . None.

Aviation . 28/Frye


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PEGF1 0 mi55 min E 8 G 9.9 85°F 1014.2 hPa (-0.5)
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 25 mi55 min NE 6 G 8.9 82°F 87°F1014.6 hPa (-0.3)
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 35 mi55 min NNE 7 G 8 82°F 85°F1014.3 hPa (-0.3)
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 36 mi55 min SSE 7 G 7 83°F 84°F1013.1 hPa (-0.9)75°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL2 mi62 minE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F78°F73%1013.6 hPa
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL8 mi62 minESE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F75°F66%1013.9 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL9 mi62 minE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F77°F66%1014.1 hPa
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL11 mi62 minESE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F77°F75%1013.8 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL15 mi62 minSE 1210.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity88°F75°F66%1014.1 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL20 mi62 minESE 910.00 miThunderstorm88°F75°F68%1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFLL

Wind History from FLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8N13
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NE4N4N5N8N6N3N5N5N4CalmNW5N4N4N5N5N5N4N3N3E7SE6E11
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S12S10S6S6SW5SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmN3E7
2 days agoSE13SE14S7W6SW4S7S5S44S3S3SE3SE6SE5CalmCalmCalmCalm--S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Everglades, Turning Basin, Fort Lauderdale, Florida
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Port Everglades
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:25 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:37 AM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:43 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:50 PM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.90.60.611.62.22.83.23.232.41.71.10.70.60.91.42.12.73.13.232.5

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:47 AM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:57 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EDT     2.02 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:13 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:07 PM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:19 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:47 PM EDT     1.93 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:27 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-1.5-1.6-1.10.11.11.721.91.20.2-0.6-1-1.4-1.6-1.3-0.40.81.51.81.91.50.5-0.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.