Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boulevard Gardens, FL

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Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:56PM Saturday August 17, 2019 12:50 PM EDT (16:50 UTC) Moonrise 8:31PMMoonset 7:35AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 1041 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Rest of today..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots along the coast to east 10 to 15 knots in the gulf stream. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1041 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis..High pressure will build northward across the region this weekend into early next week bringing prevailing southeast winds. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. Winds and waves could be locally higher in an around any shower or Thunderstorm.
Gulf stream hazards..Lightning, gusty winds, and waterspouts are possible with Thunderstorms over the gulf stream. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of aug 17, 2019 at 1200 utc... 5 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 9 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 11 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 8 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boulevard Gardens, FL
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location: 26.11, -80.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 171423
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
1023 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Discussion
Latest analysis shows low level ridge continues to build at low
levels with drier air filtering into the region. 12z sndg shows
precipitable water values of 1.72 which is close to the 30
percentile. A significant difference from the last several days.

Yet the blended ssmi amsu gpsmet microwave pwat retrievals as well
as goes16 derived product show slightly higher values to our east
at least for the short term or rest of today. That simply means
there will still be enough moisture this afternoon for scattered
to locally numerous storms.

The building of the ridge is changing the thermodynamic profiles
with a pronounced mid level inversion in the 12z upper air
analysis. Overall, low level lapse rates below the inversion are
decent, around 7c km, but mid levels right above it are warm with
h5 temps of -5.1c and mid level CAPE very limited, which is in the
hail growth zone. In short, sounding does not support deep and
therefore strong convection and in fact convective indices support
for the most part ordinary garden variety storms today with only
a very slight chance of one or two strong storms may be raising
to advisory levels. If so main concern will be for wind gusts in
excess of 40 mph and may be occasional to frequent lightning
strikes.

Storm motion is forecast to be from the south or slightly west of
south today favoring the interior as sea breezes develop nudging
convection inland. Best chances for convection will be around
lake okeechobee, and inland areas of palm beach to northern miami
dade edging the east coast metro areas. But a chance remains for
the metro areas still and to a lesser extent the naples area.

Wpc still has the area under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall
and that is mostly because of antecedent conditions not requiring
as much rain to flood. But at this time if flooding occurs should
be rather limited and mostly street flooding or ponding of water
in poor drainage areas particularly in areas most impacted by
recent rains.

Updated forecast to reflect later start of convection but other
than that, forecast is on track.

Prev discussion issued 807 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
aviation...

vfr conditions should prevail throughout the forecast period.

Light and variable winds early this morning will shift to the
southeast around midday early afternoon and increase to near 10
knots except apf where winds will turn onshore early aftn.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible near kpbi, kfxe,
and kfll and may be farther south. So although included vc in all
east coast sites confidence for mia tmb very low. At apf,
probabilities too low to include any mention of wx at this time.

Prev discussion... Issued 428 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
discussion...

today and tonight: the prevailing southerly steering flow currently
in place allowed another outflow boundary kicked off by afternoon
convection across cuba to push across the region during the
overnight hours. Activity has quieted down as of now, but lingering
boundaries remain that may kick off occasional showers or a storm
across the waters over the next few hours.

For the remainder of the day, we will see the beginning of our
pattern shift as the broad atlantic ridge axis, currently south of
the state, creeps northwards. Low level flow has become more
southeasterly, though steering level flow is still slightly west of
south.

We should see showers and storms developing along both seabreezes as
they move inland early this afternoon, with the east coast seabreeze
making fairly good progress inland today. Highest coverage will
generally be across the interior, though steering flow suggests
there will still be a trend for storms to push towards the lake and
palm beach county with time. Some mid level dry air and slightly
cooler temps aloft may bring a few more stronger storms, aided by
the persistent 30-40kt jet level flow. See the hydrology section
below for more discussion about rainfall trends.

Models suggest that flow comes around to the east quickly enough
overnight to limit another late night push off cuba and across the
waters. However, models have been poor in picking up this feature
the past few nights, so wouldn't be surprised if another outflow
driven round makes it into the far southern sections again late
evening.

Sunday and Monday: the synoptic story will remain similar as we
start the next week, with the ridge axis lifting across south
florida and into central florida. Deeper east southeast flow will
tap into the drier air across the southeastern bahamas, keeping
convective coverage at more seasonable levels.

The prevailing flow will favor the east coast seabreeze transiting
inland quickly, focusing the best afternoon and evening coverage
across the interior and gulf coast. This should bring some relief to
saturated east coast metro after a few weeks of wet weather. Warm
temperatures will continue to stick around with heat index values
pushing into the mid 100s for a few hours around midday.

Rest of next week: an upper level low digging towards the great
lakes midweek will reinforce the persistent eastern us trough
that has been around for a good bit of the summer. While not as
strong as we've seen it earlier this summer, the result will be an
eroding of the western edge of the ridge, with mid-upper level
flow veering out of the south southeast.

This will open the door for deep tropical moisture to stream across
south florida, especially as the northern end of a tropical wave
currently pushing across the antilles potentially breaks off towards
the area midweek. At the very least, expect an increase in
convective coverage mid to late week with a potential for more heavy
rain not out of the question.

Marine...

with the western atlantic ridge axis build across, and eventually
north of the region, we will see more typical pattern for august
with south southeast flow this weekend becoming east southeast
into the upcoming week. With prevailing speeds generally less than
10kts, seas will be 2 feet or less for all waters. The main
boating concern will remain scattered showers and storms, where
winds and waves could be locally higher in an around any activity.

Hydrology...

the ground remains fairly saturated over a good portion of southern
florida due to recent rainfall but more limited convection and
rainfall over the east coast metro on Friday has permitted some
recovery.

While pockets of heavy rain can't be ruled out along the east coast
the next few days, the increase in southeast and eventually east
southeast flow will focus convection across the interior and gulf
coast. This in combination with a generally drier, more seasonable
pattern, should allow a continued recovery of the east coast metro
through the weekend. With this shift, don't feel an additional flood
watch is necessary. However, it remains that any heavy rainfall will
be enough to lead to at least minor flooding.

Fisheating creek in glades county remains around 6 feet this
morning, with the forecast for a slow rise of a few tenths of a foot
through early next week. The forecast continues to remain below
flood stage of 7 feet, but this will have to be monitored as the
shift in the pattern may bring more rainfall into its basin.

Aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail throughout the forecast
period. Light and variable winds for the rest of the overnight hours
will shift to the southeast by the middle of Saturday morning and
increase to near 10 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible near kpbi, kfxe, and kfll. Farther south the confidence is
too low to put in the tafs. At kapf, the winds will shift around to
the southwest in the afternoon as the gulf seabreeze moves in.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 92 76 92 78 50 20 20 20
fort lauderdale 90 78 90 79 40 20 20 20
miami 91 78 92 79 40 20 20 10
naples 89 76 91 76 20 10 30 30

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 52 ps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PEGF1 2 mi57 min SE 13 G 16 87°F 1019.8 hPa
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 26 mi57 min S 5.1 G 9.9 87°F 89°F1019.5 hPa
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 35 mi57 min S 11 G 14
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 36 mi51 min S 9.9 G 11 88°F 86°F1020.1 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL3 mi2 hrsS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F75°F66%1019 hPa
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL6 mi2 hrsSSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F75°F63%1019.6 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL9 mi2 hrsSSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds90°F75°F62%1019.6 hPa
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL10 mi2 hrsSSE 1110.00 miFair89°F73°F59%1019.4 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL15 mi2 hrsS 810.00 miFair90°F75°F63%1019.5 hPa
Boca Raton, Boca Raton Airport, FL19 mi64 minSSE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy93°F77°F59%1019.6 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL21 mi2 hrsVar 410.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F73°F61%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFLL

Wind History from FLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SE15
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SE12S13S7S11NW6NW7NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S6S7S7
1 day agoSE17S9SW4SW10W4W3W4NW4NW3CalmCalmW4SW4S4SE3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7SW8S6
2 days ago--SW11NW553E6SE7SE8S7S5S3SE4SW4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmS3SW3SW6S6S6SE14

Tide / Current Tables for Andrews Avenue bridge, New River, Fort Lauderdale, Florida
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Andrews Avenue bridge
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Sat -- 05:02 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:48 AM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:13 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:11 PM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.71.20.70.40.30.40.81.31.82.12.22.11.71.20.70.30.20.20.61.11.72.12.3

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
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Sat -- 03:15 AM EDT     -1.37 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:11 AM EDT     1.75 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:43 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:03 PM EDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:53 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:23 PM EDT     1.88 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-1-1.3-1.4-1.3-0.70.51.41.71.71.50.8-0.3-1-1.3-1.4-1.3-0.90.11.31.91.81.71.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.