Monday, September21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Naples, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:25PM Monday September 21, 2020 11:59 PM EDT (03:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:43AMMoonset 9:52PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 943 Pm Edt Mon Sep 21 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday evening...
Rest of tonight..East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots nearshore and east northeast 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet offshore. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers late in the evening.
Tuesday..East northeast winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet offshore. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots nearshore and east northeast 15 to 20 knots offshore. Seas less than 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Winds east winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas less than 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers likely. Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1018 Pm Cdt Mon Sep 21 2020
Synopsis..Hazardous conditions continue for small craft over the next few days. A moderate to strong easterly flow persists through midweek. Seas remain high over the open gulf waters for the next few days.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naples, FL
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location: 26.14, -81.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 212330 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 730 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Aviation. VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds will remain gusty overnight into Tuesday out of the northeast. A drier air mass will work into the region during the overnight hours into Tuesday. An isolated fast moving shower is possible across the east coast terminals on Tuesday, however, confidence is too low to put in TAFS at this time.

Update. A drier air mass is beginning to filter into South Florida as an area of high pressure moves into the region from the north. There will be a few leftover showers this evening mainly across the eastern and southern areas as the frontal boundary continues to move southward into the Florida Straits. Many areas will remain dry overnight, however, winds will continue to be gusty out of the northeast across the region. The gusty conditions will continue across South Florida on Tuesday and there will be a slight chance of fast moving showers mainly across the eastern half of South Florida throughout the day. High temperatures will generally remain in the mid to upper 80s across the east coast metro areas to around 90 across the interior sections.

Prev Discussion. /issued 338 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020/

..Heavy Rainfall/Localized Flooding Possible Over East Coast Areas . .Hazardous Marine Conditions Due to High Winds/Waves.

Short Term (Now through Tuesday) .

Convection continues to develop over the Atlantic waters/metros in association with a vigorous shortwave trough/frontal boundary. This shortwave impulse is inducing a convergent, cyclonic low-level response in the wind field, which is allowing showers/t-storms to develop where localized moisture convergence is maximized. Areas where banding becomes quasi-stationary will have to be monitored for localized flooding potential, as this morning's environment is indicative of efficient, tropical rainfall processes, with PWI (precipitable water indices) roughly 2.4 ins and a tall, narrow CAPE profile. Furthermore, modest 0-3km bulk shear is present (on the order of roughly 15 kts), particularly along the coast, and effective SRH (storm relative helicity) on the order of 50-100 m2/s2 extending further inland. So the environment may be conducive for waterspout development along the offshore/nearshore waters where favorable parameters overlap a robust storm environment. This is an additional concern to monitor near the Atlantic coastline this morning and into early parts of the afternoon.

As this impulse treks southward, the foci for convective development will also drift southerly. Activity should wane across much of the region, and any isolated/scattered convection that does develop will generally be over the Atlantic waters. This is reflected in the latest forecast for Tuesday, with PoPs no greater than 30 across the entire region. As the backdoor front continues its southerly progression, broad differential anticyclonic vorticity advection will induce synoptic scale subsidence, and the environment appears to dry out quite a bit, with most model guidance hinting at PWI < 1.2 ins. This should suppress widespread storm activity Tuesday, and any showers/storms that do develop will be relatively benign in nature, owing to a hostile synoptic scale environment.

Temperatures will be seasonably cooler today and Tuesday, in association with the passing modified cold front. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s across the region, with a higher trend in temperatures towards the Gulf coast region. Dewpoints will modestly decrease Tuesday as well in association with the passing front, making for a more pleasant day overall; heat indices should generally be in the upper 80s/lower 90s across the region tomorrow.

Long Term (Tuesday night through Sunday) . With the frontal boundary remaining south at the start of the long term period, dry air aloft (and modestly dry air at the surface) will remain over the region. This will limit the overall rain chances Tuesday night perhaps into Wednesday. That said, some isolated showers may still be possible from time to time, especially across the waters where the better boundary layer moisture interacts with a lingering density frontal boundary across the region.

Going into midweek the surface front/trough begins to lift northward again as the upper level flow patterns begins to transition to a southwesterly flow (albeit weak) in time. Models show an open surface trough or perhaps a weak low pressure developing within the decayed surface frontal boundary. This feature will bump rain chances back up Thursday and into Friday . continuing into the upcoming weekend. Some heavy rain and additional hydro concerns may arise given increase in tropical moisture. In fact, medium range guidance show PWATs well above 2" across much of the area late this week. The aforementioned trough/low and supportive synoptic flow late this week will help enhance daily sea breeze activity, again leading to higher POPs. Eventually the synoptic flow begins to transition as a weak H5 ridge sets up over the area going into Saturday and Sunday, however, diurnally driven convection will still be likely during the afternoon hours, especially across the interior and Atlantic coast to round out the long term.

Marine . Increasing gradient flow behind the frontal boundary and Atlantic swell from Hurricane Teddy will create hazardous marine conditions through the next few days. Frequent gusts to gale force are anticipated over the Atlantic waters through tonight, and isolated gale force gusts are possible over the Gulf waters tonight. A Gale Warning/Watch is in place for the Atlantic/Gulf waters respectively, with both hazards active until 06Z. An upgrade from watch to warning may be necessary for the Gulf waters, but will update and monitor based on latest trends/conditions in the evening. Hazardous marine conditions may linger a bit longer in the Atlantic waters due to incoming swell.

Aviation (18z TAFs) . Mixed periods of VFR/MVFR through this afternoon, as a backdoor frontal boundary approaches area. Intermittent periods of IFR/LIFR possible, as intense tropical rain-rates reduce VIS and lower CIGs within ongoing convection. Activity should trend downward towards ISLD/SCT convection this evening, waning by roughly 20-22Z as front moves south. Winds generally NE/ENE with gusts near 30kts, though ISLD higher gusts possible over waters. Localized LLWS possible, however does not merit including in latest TAF pkg.

Beach Forecast . The risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches will remain elevated through the week and potentially into the weekend, owing to strong gradient flow oriented somewhat perpendicular to the coastline. Therefore, the High Risk of Rip Currents will remain along east coast beaches of South Florida.

High surf along the Palm Beaches is expected to persist into at least Wednesday with beach erosion also a concern, due to Northeast Swells coming from Hurricane Teddy.

Astronomically high tides are beginning to decrease as we pull away from the new moon phase, but the persistent northeasterly wind flow and swell are still producing elevated high tide cycles along the Atlantic coast in the 1.5 to 1.7 feet MHHW neighborhood. With that being near the point where moderate flooding impacts are possible, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through Tuesday.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 76 86 75 86 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 77 86 77 86 / 20 20 10 20 Miami 76 87 76 87 / 30 20 10 20 Naples 73 89 72 89 / 10 10 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ168.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ168-172-173.

Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ172-173.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ610-630.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ651-671.

Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-670.

GM . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.

Update . 55/CWC Aviation . 55/CWC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 1 mi59 min ESE 6 G 9.9 78°F 85°F1017.2 hPa (+1.6)
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 8 mi74 min E 7 77°F 1017 hPa70°F
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 19 mi65 min ENE 15 G 20 80°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 35 mi59 min NE 8 G 14 78°F 83°F1017.2 hPa (+1.2)
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 41 mi119 min 86°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 44 mi119 min 88°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL1 mi66 minENE 1110.00 miFair78°F69°F74%1016.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN5N6N5N7N5NE3CalmN4N5N7N7N4N5W6W5W9W8SW10W10W7W5CalmNE8E11
2 days agoCalmCalmE3CalmCalmNE3NE4NE3NE3E6E6SE63W9W9W11W10W7W10NW9W8NW8NW6NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida
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Naples
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:32 AM EDT     3.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:36 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:55 PM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:15 PM EDT     1.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.32.83.23.22.92.31.710.4000.30.91.62.22.62.82.62.31.91.51.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Marco, Big Marco River, Florida (2)
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Marco
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:45 AM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:39 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:08 PM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:18 PM EDT     1.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.92.32.62.72.52.11.50.90.40.100.20.71.31.82.22.42.321.61.31.11.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current



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