Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Naples, FL

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 8:01PM Monday August 19, 2019 10:52 PM EDT (02:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:42PMMoonset 9:23AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 947 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Light showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of light showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Light showers likely in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and east southeast around 10 knots offshore. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Light showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of light showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of light showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of light showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of light showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South southeast winds around 5 knots becoming east late in the evening. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of light showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..East southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 353 Pm Cdt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis..A light to moderate wind flow, mainly from the southwest, will persist through the remainder of the week as a broad surface ridge of high pressure continues to stretch from the western atlantic to the north central gulf. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms through much of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naples, FL
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location: 26.14, -81.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 200019 aaa
afdmfl
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service miami fl
819 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Update
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and progress
westward across south florida this evening with the greatest
coverage expected over the atlantic waters, interior, and gulf
coast. Persistent e-se flow combined with a surface trough moving
into the region from the bahamas overnight tonight into Tuesday
will aid in enhancing overall convective activity through the
overnight hours. Increased the probability of showers and
thunderstorms overnight tonight into the morning hours to account
for deeper tropical moisture and moderate instability associated
with the surface trough moving into the region. Otherwise the forecast
is in great shape and no major changes are anticipated.

Prev discussion issued 747 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
aviation...

intermittent convection, particularly along the east coast
through the period, as a disturbance moves into the region tonight
into Tuesday. Cannot rule out brief bouts of sub-vfr conditions
at terminals directly impacted by convection. An evening round
over the atlantic waters may impact the east coast in the coming
hours with an overnight round certainly possible at all sites. A
morning round is also possible, with apf possibly joining the fray
early with gulf storms. Tsra risk increases through the period.

Prev discussion... Issued 400 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
discussion...

main weather story for the next day or so will be a surface trough
currently spread across the bahamas near 77w 78w and its gradually
migration towards the florida peninsula overnight tonight and into
Tuesday as the western atlantic ridge axis lifts northward. What
does this mean? Well, a trend of higher coverage in showers and
storms will be expected tomorrow and this is due to a few
reasons...

1. The saharan dust will slowly lift northwestward and models have
it completely out of south florida by Tuesday. This will allow a
re-moistening of the local airmass with pw's creeping in excess of
2.00 inches. Portions of the west coast Tuesday have values
exceeding 2.50 inches, so heavier coverage is expected there,
especially during the afternoon through early evening hours.

2. The aforementioned moistening will be brought upon by the
second factor, the combination of a westward moving surface trough
stated above that will pass to our south tonight with it's
northern end moving into south florida by Tuesday morning. These
features have a midlevel reflection that will erode the western
end of the ridge, bringing in a little cooler temperatures aloft.

Gfs guidance suggests that 500 mb temps will cool to -7 to -8 c
Tuesday, so stronger updrafts and potentially stronger storms will
definitely not be out of the question.

With that said, the highest rain chances of the week will likely
be Tuesday as the influence of the above factors are maximized. We
will still see a diurnal maximum of activity in the afternoon
with daytime heating (although heating will be slightly deterred
due to higher cloud coverage) and diffuse east coast seabreeze.

While the highest coverage will be across inland SW florida and
the gulf coast, locally heavy rain may be a concern for all
locations. Periodic gusty winds are not out of the question
either.

For the latter half of the week, perturbations of the western
atlantic ridge will be the largest influence on the weather across
south florida. The axis of the ridge will generally be to our
north, putting us in prevailing deep east southeast flow, so
plenty of moisture will stick around with a more seasonable
coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms once the trough
passes to the west. Pw's look to drop into the 1.65 to 1.90 inch
range with the exception of Friday where values drop to around
1.50 inches. As we end the week, the western atlantic ridge looks
to weaken, however, it will still exert enough influence to keep
us in prevailing easterly flow. This will continue to push the
highest coverage towards the gulf coast and inland SW florida each
afternoon. Convection will generally be diurnally driven,
developing along the seabreezes in the late morning and
afternoons.

Quick side note about a brief return of saharan dust -- models
are hinting that minute amounts of saharan dust (around 20 to 40
micrograms per cubic meter) return to south florida Wednesday and
Thursday but will quickly dissipate.

For the upcoming weekend, a tropical wave currently located around
38w looks to enter the forecast picture. Models have this feature
tracking a little further north and east of the area, so deep
moisture looks to be the main impact, and thus, higher rain and
storm chances this weekend. Exactly when, what, and where it
arrives will determine when enhanced rain chances may return to
south florida. For now though, scattered to locally numerous
showers and storms will be the forecast for the upcoming weekend
into early next week.

Marine...

prevailing east southeast winds will be in place for most of the
upcoming week with the atlantic ridge axis to the north of the
region. Speeds will generally be 10 kt or less across the gulf
waters and lake okeechobee with 10-15 kt winds across the atlantic
waters. The main boating concern will be showers and storms
across the local waters each day. Prevailing flow will lead to
more storms pushing off the gulf coast in the afternoons and
evenings. Expect locally higher winds and waves near any
convection.

Beach forecast...

a return in east southeast wind flow will gradually increase the
rip current risk for atlantic beaches throughout the next couple
of days.

Hydrology...

a lack of widespread coverage the last couple of days has allowed
the ground to tolerate heavy rainfall a bit better. Locally heavy
rainfall anywhere in south florida could still cause minor flooding
over the coming days but the prevailing flow will tend to
concentrate afternoon showers and storms towards gulf coast and
sw florida.

Fisheating creek at palmdale continues to slowly rise and is
currently at 6.41 feet as of 3 pm edt. The forecast trend is an
expectation for fisheating creek to gradually rise over the coming
days as additional rainfall falls across the basin. At this time,
the forecast remains for the creek to stay below flood stage at
palmdale.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 78 89 78 90 30 40 30 40
fort lauderdale 79 88 78 89 30 40 40 50
miami 79 88 78 90 30 50 30 50
naples 76 90 75 89 30 60 60 60

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 03 fell & 18 weinman
discussion... 03 fell & 18 weinman
marine... 03 fell & 18 weinman
aviation... 02 rag
beach forecast... 03 fell & 18 weinman
hydrology... 03 fell & 18 weinman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 1 mi52 min 82°F 86°F1017.6 hPa (+2.3)
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 8 mi67 min E 5.1 80°F 1018 hPa75°F
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 19 mi58 min ESE 6 G 9.9 81°F 1018.3 hPa
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 35 mi52 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 79°F 86°F1017.5 hPa (+2.1)
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 41 mi112 min 90°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 44 mi112 min 91°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL1 mi2 hrsE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F73°F72%1017.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------NE8NE7E9SE7E6E7
1 day agoE8E3E4E3E4--E4N4E3NE5----E8S3SE6W9W10W7N5NW4--E3N5--
2 days agoSE4--E5--E4NE4--SE5E3SE5--S7S9--SW6SW9
G14
SW13S10SW8----NE8E6E7

Tide / Current Tables for Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida
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Naples
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Mon -- 03:46 AM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:49 AM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:46 PM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:09 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.82.42.82.92.72.21.71.20.90.811.422.52.932.82.31.71.10.70.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for Marco, Big Marco River, Florida (2)
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Marco
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:59 AM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:52 AM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:59 PM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:12 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.422.32.52.321.51.10.80.70.81.21.62.12.42.52.421.510.60.40.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.