Sunrise 6:55 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 9:53 PM   Moonset 7:29 AM

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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 909 Am Cdt Fri Apr 26 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late Saturday night - .
Rest of today - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots this afternoon. Choppy on the bay becoming rough this afternoon. A slight chance of showers late this morning. Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 35 knots in the evening. Choppy on the bay. Saturday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 knots. Choppy on the bay becoming rough in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Gusts to 35 knots. Rough on the bay becoming choppy after midnight. Sunday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots in the morning. Choppy on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay becoming a moderate chop after midnight. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 909 Am Cdt Fri Apr 26 2024
Synopsis - The pressure gradient between high pressure extending over the gulf of mexico and a series of low pressure areas across northwest texas and the central plains will cause fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to high seas through much of the weekend. Winds will begin to diminish Sunday night, with elevated wave heights persisting on the gulf waters into next week.

FXUS64 KBRO 261932 AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Key message: - Strong winds persist today and Saturday

Interaction between high pressure extending across the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressured storm systems transiting across the Plains will keep the local surface pressure gradient tight and the South Texas wind machine on. Strong breezes are ongoing across the CWA this afternoon, creating windy conditions. Winds will diminish to a moderate to fresh breeze tonight, but winds will ramp up to a strong breeze once again on Saturday. Conditions will border wind advisory criteria, but will leave that decision to the next forecast cycle as it still appears borderline.

Fire weather concerns have remained muted despite the stronger winds. That is not to say that enhanced wildfire growth and spread will not occur, just that the wind/relative humidity combination is presently below specific thresholds. Rip current risk will continue high, and I extended the rip current statement out to Sunday morning, with additional extensions possible.

Temperatures will trend several degrees above average through the short term, with lows in the 70s and highs on Saturday from the upper 80s east to the upper 90s west. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, with more sun out west than east in the afternoon and overcast low clouds near the coast late night to early morning.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

An upper-level trough over the Central Plains will traverse further east Sunday, allowing for mostly zonal flow aloft over Deep South Texas for the start of the workweek. By mid week, weak upper level ridging looks to build over South Texas, though this ridge will be quickly replaced by the next upper level trough by the end of the period. A series of shortwaves moving through the mid level flow will bring enhanced forcing to the area, increasing potential for some convection to occur. Rain chances remain fairly low through the period (20-30%), however multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms are likely to occur.

At the surface, southerly to southeasterly winds look to be persistent through the period, transporting plenty of warm, humid air to the region. High temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the 90s for most of the area, with areas along the coast in the upper 80s. Likewise, low temperatures are expected to remain in the 70s through the period.

The first opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will be Sunday, as a cold front looks to stall to the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front could move into northern portions of the CWA, though limited instability and a potent CAP will likely keep the best chances of convection further north.

The next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms looks to be Monday night, when enhanced forcing from a passing shortwave could convection developing along the Sierra Madre Mountains. Some of these storms could make it to Deep South Texas, however a less favorable environment closer to the coast could cause these storms to dissipate before they make it that far. This cycle will basically repeat itself Tuesday and Wednesday as additional shortwaves move through.

The pattern changes slightly Thursday, as a cold front looks to develops over North Texas and rapidly drops south. While recent GFS and ECMWF runs both have the cold front moving through Deep South Texas, they differ on the timing. With this system being nearly a week out, uncertainty in either solution is fairly high, however it is worth mentioning rain chances look to increase near the end of the period with the potential passage of a cold front.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

MVFR conditions now at the local TAF sites due to ceilings.
Strong southeast breezes are ongoing. Not much change is expected the next 24 hours. Winds will decrease a bit overnight, down to a moderate breeze, but will become strong again on Saturday.
Ceilings will continue MVFR. Though not yet mentioned in the forecast, some newer model runs are developing a few coastal showers late tonight through Saturday morning.

MARINE
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Tonight through Saturday night...The surface pressure gradient between high pressure extending over the Gulf of Mexico and a series of low pressure areas moving across the Plains will cause fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to high seas through much of the weekend. I extended small craft advisory conditions through 1 AM CDT Sunday, when winds across the Laguna Madre may lower below 20 knots, but persistent elevated Gulf seas may require further extensions of the advisory for the Gulf marine zones.

Sunday through next Friday...Weakening pressure gradients will allow wind speeds to decrease on Sunday, although stronger winds over the Laguna Madre may warrant a Small Craft Advisory or Small Craft Exercise Caution headline Sunday afternoon. While the winds over the water look to decrease, seas will be slower to respond.
Wave heights may warrant Small Craft Advisories into Monday morning for the coastal Gulf waters. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines may be needed periodically through the remainder of the period, as a series of upper level shortwaves look to enhance pressure gradients along the coast leading to stronger winds and higher seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 76 89 76 91 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 73 92 74 94 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 76 92 76 95 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 96 74 93 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 82 76 82 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 88 74 90 / 0 0 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ254-255-354-355.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175.

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Port Isabel
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Fri -- 06:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:29 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:49 AM CDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:58 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:52 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:35 PM CDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet

Port Isabel
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:29 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:21 AM CDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:58 PM CDT     1.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:49 PM CDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:58 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:52 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:37 PM CDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas (2), Tide feet

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