Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Highland Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 7:54PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 4:46 PM EDT (20:46 UTC) Moonrise 9:31AMMoonset 11:29PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Highland Beach, FL
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location: 26.19, -77.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 271947 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 347 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

Short Term. . Flood Watch in Effect through this Evening for East Coast Metro .

Short Term (Rest of Today through Thursday) .

The area of low pressure dumping over a foot of rain over portions of the east coast the past few days is now Tropical Storm Bertha, which has just made landfall along the South Carolina coast with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. A series of weak upper-level impulses look to slide over South Florida today whereas the ridge of high pressure refuses to build in across the area. Consequently, wind flow (and the steering flow) will continue to have a slight southwesterly component. What does this mean? Well, any showers and/or storms that do develop across the interior of South Florida today will push eastward towards the east coast metro areas yet again. Therefore, a Flood Watch is in effect for the east coast metro areas through 10 PM tonight.

From MFL's 27/12Z sounding, some drying is evident, though PW's are still well above normal for this time of year. The sounding measured 1.59 inches this morning, which is about 2.5 standard deviations above normal, or in the 99.5 percentile. 500 mb temperatures are also slightly cooler today, at about -7 to -8 degrees C. This will once again allow for some steepening of mid-level lapse rates to occur by this afternoon. The plethora of moisture across South Florida should once again be readily available for convection to tap in to today, especially with the combined effects of the sea breezes and upper-level impulses.

Currently, meso-models are suggesting that Palm Beach and Broward counties will be the focus of activity for this afternoon into the evening hours, however some southward trends in guidance are evident and Miami-Dade County will have to be watched closely, especially since standing water and flooded roadways are still evident this morning with a Flood Advisory in place.

Unfortunately, if the east coast metro areas were to see more rainfall today, it will not take long for flooding to spike up once again, especially since the last three days, Broward County has seen 6 to 10 inches of rain, Palm Beach County has seen 5 to 9 inches of rain, and Miami-Dade has seen 8 to 15 inches of rain. One hour FFG is about 1 to 2 inches across portions of metro Miami-Dade with 2 to 4 inches for Broward and Palm Beach counties. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has upgraded metro portions of the east coast into a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall.

With the rainfall accumulations seen the past 72 hours, in Layman'sterms, the east coast of Florida is deluged. Therefore, wouldn't be surprised if additional flood advisories or warnings are needed this afternoon and evening given the projected rainfall and sensitivity of these areas to additional rainfall. As previously mentioned, a Flood Watch is in Effect through 10 PM this evening for metro Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties.

Lastly, given sufficient precipitation loading and DCAPE over 1000 J/kg, a few stronger wind gusts are possible today in any taller thunderstorm cores, and perhaps even strong showers. The cooler temperatures aloft suggest that lightning activity may be a little more widespread today as well.

As we get into Thursday, patchy fog is possible across portions of the interior early Thursday morning due to a moist atmosphere, saturated soils, and light winds. Otherwise, South Florida should see a more "summer-like" pattern with easterly flow returning as ridging builds. Plentiful moisture will continue to stick around, with PW's still well above normal for this time of year. Thus, afternoon showers and storms will be expected once again, though due to easterly flow, higher PoPs stick around the Lake Region and the interior sections of South FL. Even so, high-end PoPs still exist through the afternoon hours. With that said, will still need to monitor the east coast metro areas due to the amount of rain they received the past few days.

Muggy conditions with temperatures in the mid-upper 80s across south FL. Heat indices climbing into the triple digits.

Long Term. High pressure will continue into the Florida Peninsula from the Western Atlantic waters this weekend keeping an easterly wind flow over South Florida. This will focus the showers and thunderstorms over the east coast metro areas during the late night into the morning hours shifting to the interior and west coast metro areas in the afternoon and evening hours.

By early next week, model solutions for the long term suggest the formation of an upper level low over the northwest Atlantic waters, which seems to weaken the aforementioned ridge and allow for a back door frontal boundary to reach South Florida. Winds turn more NE and become moderate to gusty at times as pressure gradients between the front and a low developing over the west Caribbean Sea become tighter.

Expect chances of rain to remain mainly in the scattered range early next week, with best chances over the interior and west coast metro areas. Temperatures will continue generally warm, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Marine. Other than occasional showers and thunderstorms, generally benign marine conditions are expected through the weekend. The pressure gradient tightens next week as a system begins to approach the area, increasing winds in the process.

Aviation. Scattered SHRA and isolated TS developing across the interior are pushing eastward this afternoon. This activity is expected to continue through 00Z this evening. MVFR to IFR CIGs/VIS can be expected during the stronger activity, along with sporadic gusty winds. TEMPO groups have been added for FLL/FXE/MIA/OPF/TMB for IFR conditions due to storms as the line approaches. May need additional TEMPO groups/AMDs as the afternoon progresses. VFR conditions return overnight with rain chances increasing tomorrow afternoon. Patchy fog possible early Thursday morning.

Hydrology.

Deep tropical moisture continues to be in place across South Florida. As a result, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing torrential rainfall across the outlook area through at least tonight can be expected, especially for the metro areas of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties.

Instantaneous rainfall rates, on average, look to be around 2 to 4 inches per hour, with locally higher amounts possible, especially over locations that receive multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Another round of showers and thunderstorms, with heavy rainfall, will be possible later this afternoon and evening along the east coast due to southwesterly flow. Due to this potential, a Flood Watch is in Effect through 10 PM this evening for the east coast metro areas of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties.

Interests across South Florida are strongly encouraged to monitor the latest information from the National Weather Service in Miami to prepare for the potential of heavy rain and flooding.

Beach Forecast. Rip current risk will remain elevated along the Atlantic coast as easterly winds return.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 75 87 74 86 / 60 40 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 77 86 77 85 / 30 30 20 30 Miami 77 87 76 87 / 20 30 20 30 Naples 75 89 73 88 / 10 40 20 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068-072>074-168- 172>174.

AM . None. GM . None.

Marine/Beach/Short Term/Hydrology/Aviation . 03/Fell Long Term . 54/BNB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL155 mi53 minW 49.00 miLight Rain76°F72°F88%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPMP

Wind History from PMP (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas (2)
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Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:27 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:24 PM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:24 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.72.31.71.10.50.30.30.61.11.62.12.42.42.11.610.60.30.40.71.21.92.4

Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas
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Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:24 AM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:22 PM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:22 PM EDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.63.42.92.31.71.2111.31.82.42.83.13.12.82.31.71.311.11.41.92.63.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.