Saturday, January16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican Bay, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:59PM Saturday January 16, 2021 3:34 AM EST (08:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:59AMMoonset 9:32PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 245 Am Est Sat Jan 16 2021
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots nearshore and northwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots offshore. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet nearshore and 4 to 6 feet with occasional to 8 feet offshore. Period 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy in exposed areas.
Tonight..NEarshore, northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north northeast after midnight. Offshore, north northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet with occasional to 6 feet offshore. Period 8 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..NEarshore, east northeast winds 5 knots becoming west around 5 knots in the afternoon. Offshore, east northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 8 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday night through Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 915 Pm Cst Fri Jan 15 2021
Synopsis..A strong westerly flow and elevated seas will persist over the marine area through Saturday afternoon. Winds will gradually subside Saturday evening, and a light to moderate west to northwest flow will prevail Saturday night through Monday. Onshore flow returns Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure builds across the southeastern states.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican Bay, FL
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location: 26.21, -81.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 160616 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 116 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

SHORT TERM.

Today and Sunday .

An expansive upper vortex now encompassing much of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions will migrate through the Mid Atlantic States before reaching New England on Sunday. Occluding low pressure is evident via surface analysis over the lower Great Lakes early this morning, with an associated frontal zone extending southeast across the Mid Atlantic region before trailing southwest towards central Florida, where surface observations suggest the front extended from the Naples area northeast towards the northern end of Lake Okeechobee as of this writing. As the upper low progresses eastward surface low pressure will reform farther east across New England allowing the surface front to sweep through the remainder of our area this morning. A few showers should accompany the frontal passage but widespread rainfall is not expected and any accumulations should be quite limited. However west to northwest winds will pick up behind the frontal passage today and tonight around 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Model RH fields remain fairly saturated around 850 mb this afternoon so expect sct-bkn stratocumulus development within the cold advection regime following the frontal passage. High pressure should then build into the area on Sunday resulting in quiet conditions.

The primary short-term weather concern is focused on low temperatures for late tonight into Sunday morning. Trends have been holding steady over the past few days, and while it will be cool, tonight's lows don't appear to be quite on par with some of the colder nights we've had so far this winter. That said readings will be on the cool side. A general breakdown of the expected low temperatures are as follows:

Lake Okeechobee/northern inland areas: lower to mid 40s Gulf Coast/coastal Collier County: around 50 Palm Beach metro: upper 40s Miami/Broward metro: around 50 southern inland areas/far western Miami/Broward metro: upper 40s

Will keep an eye on trends tomorrow in case adjustments are needed, but this portion of the forecast appears to be in good shape at this time. High temperatures both today and tomorrow should be on the cool side, ranging from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south today, with readings generally in the mid to upper 60s on Sunday.

LONG TERM (Monday through Friday).

Only quasi-noteworthy feature for the extended period is another feeble frontal boundary that will sweep across South Florida with very little fanfare on Monday; only PoPs mentioned reside over the far southern Atlantic waters where instability could be sufficient enough for a few showers to develop. High pressure at the surface will then swiftly build into the region in the boundary's wake and remain in control of the weather pattern for the remainder of the week. Aloft, zonal flow will briefly become established before mid-level ridging nudges northward from the Caribbean by mid week. This will help reinforce dry and quiescent conditions across South Florida through the period.

A gradual warming trend will take place through the work week as both the lower and mid level ridges become better aligned and the northerly flow gains an easterly component. Thus, daytime highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s across South Florida for the start of the week and warm lower 80s by late week. Overnight lows should follow the same warming trend, with the exception being on Monday night into Tuesday morning where a brief rebound to cooler temperatures will materialize behind the aforementioned front.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS).

Sub-VFR ceilings should spread across the area from northwest to southeast during the early morning hours behind a cold front. Timing for the eastern terminals would be ~0630-9z at PBI and ~08-10z for FLL/MIA/TMB. Somewhat low confidence in 1) whether the low cigs actually reach the southeastern terminals; and 2) exact time of dissipation if they do make it there. For now approximated these times with TEMPOs but be aware that future TAF adjustments are possible. Regardless we should trend towards VFR for all areas by ~14z. West-northwest winds around 15 kt with higher gusts possible this afternoon.

MARINE.

A cold front is pushing through the local waters early this morning and should depart the Atlantic waters by this afternoon. Increasing winds and elevated seas are expected today into early next week. This will bring cautionary to hazardous conditions for small craft operators, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for portions of the area.

BEACHES.

A high rip current risk exists for the Gulf Coast Beaches this weekend owing to increased northwest winds and swell. A Beach Hazards Statement is also in effect for coastal northern and coastal central Collier County due to Red Tide. Refer to the latest coastal hazard message for more information.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Miami 73 52 69 56 / 0 0 0 10 West Kendall 73 48 69 54 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 72 49 68 55 / 0 0 0 10 Homestead 73 50 69 54 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 73 50 69 56 / 0 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 71 50 67 56 / 0 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 73 49 69 55 / 0 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 68 48 66 54 / 0 0 0 10 Boca Raton 71 50 68 55 / 0 0 0 10 Naples 68 50 66 55 / 0 0 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for FLZ069.

High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EST this morning through Sunday evening for FLZ069.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ670-671.

GM . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Sunday for GMZ676.



Today through Sunday and Aviation/Marine . SPM Sunday Night through Friday . HVN

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwsmiami www.twitter.com/nwsmiami


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 6 mi46 min NW 12 G 13 65°F 66°F1014.3 hPa
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 13 mi100 min NNW 8.9 G 12 63°F
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 14 mi49 min N 4.1 62°F 1014 hPa61°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 30 mi46 min NW 5.1 G 6 61°F 66°F1014 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 48 mi94 min 68°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL7 mi41 minNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy62°F58°F86%1013.4 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL24 mi41 minNNW 410.00 miFair60°F56°F86%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E4CalmCalmCalmSW6S7S6S7S5S9S9S10S10NW9W5NW6NW7NW4
1 day agoN6N7NE7NE6NE7N6NE8N8NE74NW7NW10NW9NW8NW6NW3NW3N3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalm
2 days agoN5NE5NE6NE4N3N6N6NE7NE6N5N5NW10NW7N6N5N4NE6NE6E4E3NE3NE5E3N4

Tide / Current Tables for Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida
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Naples
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:04 AM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:06 AM EST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:18 PM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:57 PM EST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:31 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.42.52.421.50.80.2-0.2-0.4-0.30.20.81.41.92.22.11.91.410.70.60.71.1

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:39 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:20 AM EST     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:59 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:36 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:25 PM EST     1.08 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:30 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:18 PM EST     -0.33 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:32 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:52 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.3-0.2-0.6-1-1.3-1.4-1.4-1-0.40.30.81.110.90.70.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.30.10.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station



Gulf Stream Current



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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.