Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manalapan, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 5:49PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 1:22 PM EST (18:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:06AMMoonset 2:58PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manalapan, FL
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location: 26.3, -77.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 211728 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1228 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

Aviation. Generally dry and VFR conditions continue with breezy and gusty northerly winds.

Prev Discussion. /issued 948 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020/

Update . A mid-level cut-off low will help with a surface low developing in the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas later today. Latest model guidance and soundings suggest an increase in wind speeds across the region, particularly over the Atlantic waters. With the latest forecast depicting gale force wind gusts in the waters off Palm Beach and the offshore waters in the southern Atlantic offshore Broward and Miami-Dade. Wind gust in these areas may reach 35- 40 kts. With these winds and very hazardous seas a Gale warning has been issued and will go into effect later this afternoon.

High temperatures across the region will struggle to get out of the 60s today with only a few southern coastal areas reaching the 70 degree mark. Breezy northwesterly flow increases this afternoon and will continue overnight through tomorrow.

There has been little to no change in the overnight temperature forecast across South Florida. Latest model guidance came in fairly close to last forecast package. Hazardous wind chill conditions overnight with values falling below 35 degrees across most of South Florida and into the mid 20s across portions of the interior. Therefore, the Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect for tonight. With this issuance there will not be an upgrade to a Wind Chill warning which requires a 3-hour duration and wind chills at or below 25 degrees. As for a freeze watch or warning, with the latest guidance for the area of concern in Glades, Hendry and Collier county, most of guidance has temps just above freezing, except for a few BC models. The main factor will be wind speed values that may maintaining enough mixing to prevent temps falling to below freezing. The models with slightly lower wind speeds allow for a little more radiational cooling. Current forecast reflects wind speeds remaining elevated, and temps just above freezing. Therefore, no issuance of a freeze warning although there still is a non-zero chance an isolated location may reach 32 degrees.

Prev Discussion . /issued 303 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020/ Wind Chill Advisory: Tonight Across South Florida. Hazardous Marine and Beach Conditions Linger.

Short Term (Today through Wednesday) .

A drier, cooler, and breezy day for South Florida behind the departed cold front. Aloft, a mid-level low will cut off from the main trough over northeastern Florida and coastal Georgia today. A surface reflection of this feature will end up developing a low over the Atlantic waters north of the Bahamas. The mid-level low will push southward across the Atlantic waters on Wednesday before being reabsorbed and pushed back into the open Atlantic.

Temperatures today will struggle to reach into the 60s over portions of Southwest Florida with other portions of South Florida remaining in the mid to upper 60s. Some portions of the Atlantic coast may be able to warm to around 70 degrees, particularly those with an urban heat island effect in play. The brisk northwesterly flow will pick up by afternoon with a persistence forecast through the overnight and Wednesday morning hours. This flow regime will allow for polar continental air to push down the spine of the peninsula towards southern Florida.

A few threats may emerge from this setup overnight including the threat of hazardous wind chill values and the potential for a freeze over portions of inland Southwest Florida. The wind chill concern is fairly high confidence with this forecast issuance as the presence of the low to the east and the high building to the north will create a pretty tight gradient wind flow. The cold air advection due to the persistent northwesterly flow should allow wind chill values to fall below 35 degrees across most of South Florida for several hours overnight into Monday morning with some portions of inland Southwest Florida potentially experiencing wind chill values in the mid 20s. At this point in time, the confidence in the required 3- hour duration precludes the issuance of a Wind Chill Watch or Warning for inland Southwest Florida, but all of South Florida will be under a Wind Chill Advisory for tonight with this forecast package issuance.

There is a non-zero threat of a freeze for inland Southwest Florida tonight, particularly along the State Road 29 corridor of Glades, Hendry, and inland Collier Counties. One mitigating factor is that the elevated wind flow could maintain enough mixing to prevent temperatures from dropping below freezing. Mind you the forecast currently straddles freezing in these areas and this will have to be monitored. The statistical guidance does shed some insights into the potential for a freeze, particularly if the wind were to decouple more than forecast overnight in the area of concern which could allow for some more efficient radiational cooling. The majority of the raw and MOS guidance maintains temperatures above freezing with only the bias corrected members attempting to produce below-freezing temperatures. Due to the recency of this pattern change, the confidence in the ability of the bias-corrected guidance to identify a pattern for bias is low. The current forecast is a touch cooler than most of the MOS guidance which is cooler than the raw guidance.

Temperatures should begin to warm after sunrise on Wednesday with the stiff northwesterly wind gradually diminishing through the day. Atlantic moisture combined with the presence of the mid-level low over the Atlantic could produce some rain shower activity which should remain over the waters though a stray coastal shower cannot be ruled out, particularly in northern Palm Beach County. Maximum Temperatures will still struggle to reach the 60s across much of the area with only the immediate Atlantic coast reaching the upper 60s. Wednesday night will still be chilly but not as cold as tonight. Widespread upper 40s over inland Southwest Florida with 50s elsewhere except for lower 60s along the Atlantic coast are forecasted. Lighter wind and warmer temperatures will help warm wind chill values into the 40s across Southwest Florida and 50s across Southeast Florida.

Long Term .

Thursday through Tuesday .

As the surface low to our east treks further into the Atlantic, winds will continue to relax on Thursday, while also veering out of the east and modifying the airmass across South Florida. With warming and moistening air, showers will linger over the Atlantic waters and temperatures will rebound back to around seasonable values by the start of the weekend. However, upstream over Texas and the northwestern Gulf, phased long and shortwave troughing will help initiate cyclogenesis at the surface. As this system jets off towards the northeast, an attendant cold front will approach from the northwest, potentially crossing South Florida late Saturday into early Sunday. Convection may increase ahead or along the frontal boundary, but thunder remains out of the forecast at this time with models depicting the loss of upper level support.

Behind the front, temperatures look to cool back down slightly below normal. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s across South Florida before dropping to the upper 60s and low 70s behind the aforementioned cold front. Early morning lows will be in the mid to upper 50s across the interior and low 60s along the east coast ahead of the boundary, and thereafter, dip into the mid to upper 40s west of the Lake to the upper 50s and near 60 along the East Coast Sunday and Monday night.

For the early portions of next week, global models develop an area of precipitation over the central Gulf of Mexico behind the frontal boundary. However, models handle the fate of this area of precipitation slightly differently. The GFS keeps the the mass well to our southwest, while the ECMWF pushes some of the precipitation across South Florida. Therefore, have added the mention of showers to the forecast, but have split the difference by only raising PoPs across the peninsula to around 20% and higher over the Atlantic waters. Will continue to monitor over the next several days as things could certainly change as we get closer in time.

Beach Forecast .

An elevated risk of rip currents along the Gulf and Atlantic beaches today with high risk for Palm Beach and Collier. The Gulf risk should begin to diminish as the wind dies down but the increasing swell in the Atlantic will allow the elevated risk to at least linger if not increase along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida through the end of the week with the potential lasting in the Palm Beaches into the weekend. High surf may become a concern for the Atlantic beaches, particularly the Palm Beaches, by Wednesday and lingering through late in the week.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 42 67 61 73 / 10 20 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 45 66 62 74 / 0 20 20 20 Miami 44 66 60 75 / 0 10 10 20 Naples 38 64 52 76 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ069-168.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ630-651.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ650- 670-671.

Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ650-670-671.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ610.

GM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676.

Aviation . 33/Kelly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 94 mi23 min N 13 G 15 69°F 1016 hPa (-1.8)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL149 mi30 minNW 137.00 miFair68°F48°F51%1018.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPMP

Wind History from PMP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8--NE13NE12N11N9N9N9
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1 day agoSE12SE12S12S10S8S7S5SW6SW5SW7SW5CalmSW3W4W5W6NW6NW9N6N9N8N8NW8NW7
2 days agoSE15
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Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas (2)
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Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:28 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:57 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:56 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:41 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:45 PM EST     2.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:46 PM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.41.11.82.32.62.62.31.81.10.4-0-0.200.511.61.921.81.30.70.2-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas
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Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:23 AM EST     3.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:51 AM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:56 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:40 PM EST     2.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:41 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 11:41 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.21.92.53.13.33.332.41.71.10.70.60.81.21.82.32.72.72.521.40.80.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.