Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manalapan, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 8:13PM Sunday July 5, 2020 4:59 PM EDT (20:59 UTC) Moonrise 7:51PMMoonset 5:37AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manalapan, FL
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location: 26.3, -77.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 051858 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 258 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Short Term.

Rest Of This Afternoon (Mesoscale Update) .

Visible satellite loops indicate more widespread boundary-layer cumulus development across South Florida today compared to yesterday -- indicative of greater tropospheric moisture content responding to mass fluxes along the periphery of a northern Gulf cyclonic-flow perturbation. As a result, convective coverage today should be greater today than yesterday -- more scattered to numerous today. Precipitable water has increased by around 0.2 inch during the past day, which will increase the conditional potential for precipitation loading to strengthen downdrafts, while midlevel lapse rates remain at a similar 6.0-6.5 C/km. Midlevel winds today are west-southwesterly around 15 kt -- about 5 kt weaker than those yesterday. Given the marginal decrease in already modest vertical shear, though still locally enhanced along and east of the east-coast sea-breeze boundary that has edged inland, the boosted tropospheric moisture should still maintain a microburst potential with convection maturing and advancing toward the east coast in through 7PM. Lateral expansion of related strong-wind potential could accompany cold-pool amalgamation toward the east-coast vicinity after around 4PM. An isolated damaging wind gust could occur as a reasonable worst- case scenario, especially where low-level lapse rates steepen the most from metro/coastal Broward into metro/coastal Palm Beach County. Also, isolated hail -- mostly small -- could accompany incipient updraft stages. Though, sufficiently cool midlevel profiles could support an isolated risk for quarter-size hail. Frequent lightning and torrential downpours are expected, and backbuilding convection could yield a localized-flooding risk.

Overnight and Monday .

Overnight tonight temperatures will drop into the mid 70s over the interior with upper 70s along the gulf coast and near to low 80s over the east coast metro. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Gulf and Atlantic waters overnight.

Another day of unsettled weather is expected with the start of the week. High pressure with a light and variable wind flow across the region. A low pressure system along a stalled frontal boundary is expected to move in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile across South Florida abundant moisture remains with PWATs around 1.9-2 inches. Sea breezes will develop in the afternoon with this being the main forcing mechanism to initiate convection, Additional convection will develop along sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions. Main impacts will continue to be the same across South Florida with frequent lightning, gusty winds, heavy rainfall and small hail possible.

Afternoon temperatures will continue to be above normal in the lower to mid 90s across the area. Heat indices will continue to soar into the triple digits up to 106.

Long Term.

Monday Night through Tuesday .

Broad mid/upper troughing will prevail across the southeast States, with zonally elongated ridging extending from the western Atlantic through the Bahamas and southeast Gulf of Mexico. A surface front attendant to the upper wave will remain draped across the coastal Gulf Coast states, with surface cyclogenesis potentially occurring somewhere along the frontal zone well to our north. Our location along the western periphery of the upper ridge will maintain weak southwesterly flow aloft with light south/southeasterly flow through the lower troposphere. The reservoir of relatively deep moisture remains in place, with model forecast precipitable water values remaining at or above 2 inches through the period. While the mid levels shouldn't be particularly cool given the ridging in place, low-level diabatic heating and the aforementioned moisture should result in plentiful thermodynamic instability and convective initiation along the inland advancing sea breeze boundaries. Given the rather light flow pattern thunderstorm development may spread back towards coastal areas later in the afternoon along colliding outflow boundaries. It appears that thunderstorm coverage may be a bit more widespread on Tuesday given slightly deeper moisture and less influence from the low level ridge. That said afternoon PoPs of 40-50 percent are still anticipated for inland areas each afternoon. A few stronger storms are possible, and a localized/urban flooding risk may develop given slow storm motions. Very little change in temperatures is expected during this period with above average readings expected. Highs away from the coasts will be well into the 90s, with lows in the 70s inland and lower 80s along the coasts. Maximum heat indices of 100 to 108 degrees are likely, so caution should be exercised by those working outdoors.

Wednesday through Sunday .

The upper trough will gradually lift from the Southeast CONUS into the mid Atlantic States as ridging at the surface and aloft briefly expands across the southern Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean Sea. A low pressure system, potentially with subtropical characteristics, should be in the vicinity of the coastal Carolinas early in the period, before pulling away to the north by late week. However, residual troughing may extend southwest of this feature for a time. Given deep moisture, light tropospheric flow, and the usual sea breeze circulation patterns daily shower/thunderstorm development is anticipated. However, there is some murkiness with convective trends and coverage by late week depending upon the evolution of the large scale pattern. It's possible that a more widespread heavy rain/localized flooding risk could develop during this time. Keep up with forecast changes. Otherwise the warm pattern looks to continue with above average temperatures expected.

Marine.

Generally benign boating conditions continue through the forecast period for all South Florida coastal waters. Only exception will be with any thunderstorm that may form, which will bring brief localized periods of rough seas and gusty winds.

Aviation (18z TAFs).

Light winds this morning with some lingering smoke/haze from fireworks last night trapped in the inversion layer causing some limited vis. Light winds will continue until both seabreezes begin to pick up around 16Z. VCTS for all terminals this afternoon. Sub-VFR conditions for cigs/vis with showers and storms that move over the terminals, with best chances after 18Z for east coast. Light winds once again overnight tonight.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 77 92 78 92 / 60 60 20 50 Fort Lauderdale 80 91 80 91 / 40 40 30 50 Miami 80 93 80 92 / 30 50 20 50 Naples 77 92 78 94 / 20 50 10 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

This Afternoon . Cohen Tonight through Monday and Aviation/Marine . Kelly Monday Night through Sunday . SPM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL149 mi67 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F72°F90%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPMP

Wind History from PMP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE13W5S3NW10N5SE4N5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW5SW6SE7SE11SE13S15S7
1 day agoS12S11SW10SW8SW7SW5S5SW6W7W5W6W7NW4W5W4W3NW6CalmNW5SE8E11SE9SE11S13
2 days agoS5S13SW7SW8SW5SW5SW7CalmCalmSW4SW5SW5SW4W3W3W5W5W6W3S3SE8SE9SE14SE12

Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas (2)
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Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 03:15 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:09 AM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:07 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:33 PM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.70.1-0.2-0.10.411.72.32.52.421.30.60.1-0.2-00.51.222.73.13.12.8

Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas
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Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 03:10 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:05 AM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:02 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:28 PM EDT     3.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.40.80.50.61.11.82.533.23.12.621.30.80.50.71.322.83.43.83.83.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.