Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 4:13 AM   Moonset 5:25 PM

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AMZ075 Northern Bahamas From 24n To 27n- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.Tonight - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Wed - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft atlc exposures, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Wed night - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Thu - S to sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Thu night - NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Fri night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat - NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

FXUS62 KMFL 061651 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1251 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will continue to be the main synoptic feature in the weather pattern across South Florida through the rest of this afternoon and into Tuesday. The position of the surface high will allow for the southeasterly wind flow to continue during this time frame.
With just enough lower level moisture in place, sea breeze development this afternoon and then again on Tuesday afternoon will provide enough lift and support for isolated shower and thunderstorm development. The highest chances will remain over interior portions of Southwest Florida where the Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze boundaries interact with each other. With plenty of mid to upper level dry air in place, this will help to inhibit strong thunderstorm development, however, locally heavy downpours cannot be ruled out with any storm. Shower and thunderstorm activity will diminsh over the interior with the loss of diurnal heating during the evening hours. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the upper 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the mid 70s across the east coast metro areas. High temperatures on Tuesday will rise into the mid 80s across the east coast metro areas, and into the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will gradually weaken and shift southeast by the mid-week period, resulting in initially easterly low level flow veering more southeasterly while decreasing in magnitude. At the mid-levels, ridging over the GOM will build northeastward with the ridge axis largely positioned overhead by Wed/Thursday. Friday into Saturday the aforementioned ridge will flatten in response to a northern branch shortwave shifting into the eastern US, while surface low pressure and its associated cold front will also move towards the area.

In terms of rain chances, Wednesday-Friday will likely be completely dry thanks to a ridge building nearly overhead. The next notable rain chances come ahead of the aforementioned cold front next weekend on Saturday depending on the progression of the parent low. Given that the mid-lvl wave is passing well to our north, would expect the boundary to be frontolytic by the time it reaches SFL, largely maintaining PoPs only in the 15-30% for Saturday.

As low level flow begins to attain a more southerly and southwesterly component through the end of the week, temperatures will warm over the area. Thursday-Saturday will likely be the warmest stretch of the year thus far with widespread highs in the 90s, with mid 90s possible (especially over the Interior). Although there should be some some mixing down of drier air aloft, peak heat indices could also reach triple digits for the first time in 2024 for portions of the area.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Southeasterly winds will continue this afternoon across the east coast terminals and they will be gusty at times. Isolated shower and storms will be possible mainly over interior portions of Southwest Florida and they should stay away from most of the terminals. The exception to this will be at KAPF, where some shower activity could pass nearby late this afternoon into the early evening.

MARINE
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

A moderate to fresh southeasterly wind flow will remain in place through the middle of the week across the Atlantic waters while gentle to moderate southeasterly winds continue across the rest of the local waters. Winds may become southwesterly each afternoon across the Gulf waters as a Gulf breeze develops. Towards the end of the week, winds across all local waters will gradually become more southerly as a frontal boundary approaches from the north.
Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less through the middle of the week while they remain at 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters.

BEACHES
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic Coast beaches through the middle of the week as moderate onshore winds continue.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 75 86 75 87 / 10 20 0 10 West Kendall 73 87 72 90 / 10 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 74 87 74 90 / 10 20 0 10 Homestead 74 86 74 87 / 10 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 75 85 75 86 / 10 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 74 86 74 87 / 10 20 0 10 Pembroke Pines 74 88 75 90 / 10 20 0 10 West Palm Beach 72 86 72 88 / 10 20 0 10 Boca Raton 74 87 73 88 / 10 20 10 10 Naples 72 88 74 90 / 20 20 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:26 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:27 AM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:29 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:51 PM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas (2), Tide feet

Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:22 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:25 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:47 PM EDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

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