Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Palm Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:51PM Saturday August 17, 2019 11:00 PM EDT (03:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:19PMMoonset 7:22AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Palm Beach, FL
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location: 26.43, -77.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 180118 aaa
afdmfl
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service miami fl
918 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

Update
Convection continues to trend down this evening with some remnant
cells over the everglades making up the last convection for now.

The convection over cuba today was more limited today which means
that there should be a lack of an outflow to get as much
convection going over the waters tonight. Tweaked the forecast a
bit to kept some remnant rain chances over the everglades over the
next few hours. Updated zones have been transmitted. Have a great
Saturday night!

Prev discussion issued 755 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019
aviation...

primarilyVFR conditions are expected through the period. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area
tomorrow, but the best coverage should shift more towards the
interior and west coast. Therefore the east coast TAF sites have
been left dry for now, although an isolated shower or storm cannot
be ruled out along the seabreeze.

Prev discussion... Issued 404 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

Convective focus shifting to SW florida this week
Discussion...

this afternoon and evening: we saw a peak in convective activity
over the last few hours with things generally winding down as
activity pushes northward along the southerly flow. Boundaries
will provide the focus for any remaining convection, particularly
as the afternoon winds down into the evening.

Overnight: tonight should be drier than last night with a
noticeable lack of convection over cuba this afternoon to fuel an
outflow boundary that could initiate convection over the waters
again tonight. Slightly drier air will also help cut off the
amount of convection but the warm, rich surface moisture over the
atlantic and gulf waters will provide an environment where shallow
convection could definitely persist overnight and any interactions
by that convection with boundaries could lead to some strong
thunderstorms. For the forecast, most high resolution guidance was
fairly dry so adjustments were made for the gridded forecast to
illustrate that low end rain and thunderstorm chances focused over
the waters tonight.

Sunday: slightly drier air advecting into the area from the east
on Sunday will help to cap convective coverage but convection
should still be able to get going with the sea breezes. The
easterly flow regime will favor the convective focus over the
interior and west coast. Morning showers becoming early afternoon
thunderstorms along the sea breezes near the coasts are in the
forecast with the majority of the rain chances over southwest
florida, particularly inland portions along the state road 29
corridor, on Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to be
warm with a degree or so above the consensus blend preferred for
the forecast in most areas.

Monday-Wednesday: with the surface ridge of high pressure reaching
into the region from the atlantic to start the week, the surface
trough and associated pooled moisture will remain north of the
area. A weakness in the mid to upper level ridge will begin to
develop which may allow a trough to return over the peninsula of
florida. This small shift in pattern could allow for an increase
in convective coverage but the easterly to southeasterly pattern
through mid- week should keep the focus of convection over
southwest florida and the interior. The national hurricane center
continues to monitor the surface trough to our north in case
tropical development were to occur (formation chances per the 2 pm
edt tropical weather outlook remain low through the next 5 days).

To the south, a tropical wave pushing across the caribbean could
bring some additional moisture to the region, particularly if a
surface trough breaks off the northern portion of the wave and
moves into the region Monday into Tuesday.

Thursday-Saturday: easterly to southeasterly flow will persist
into the end of the week with a pattern that favors a continued
convective focus over southwest florida and the interior. Another
northern trough from a tropical wave traversing the caribbean
Friday into Saturday could again bring additional moisture into
the region to close out the extended forecast period. With these
waves, the convective activity could be more widespread temporally
instead of focused along the more normal diurnal pattern.

Marine...

a more typical pattern for august with south southeast flow this
weekend becoming east southeast into the upcoming week as the
ridge axis from atlantic high pressure builds over the region and
shifts northward. With prevailing speeds generally less than
10kts, seas will be 2 feet or less for all waters. The main
boating concern will remain scattered showers and storms, where
winds and waves could be locally higher in and around any
activity.

Hydrology...

while much of the area remains saturated, a lack of widespread
coverage the last couple of days has allowed the ground to
tolerate heavy rainfall a bit better the last couple of
afternoons. With a shift to easterly to southeasterly flow, the
greatest concern for flooding from repeated rounds of afternoon
convection day after day will shift from the east coast metro
towards southwest florida. Locally heavy rainfall anywhere in
south florida could still cause minor flooding over the coming
days, but those with interests over in southwest florida
particularly should monitor conditions and the forecast over the
coming week.

Fisheating creek at palmdale is currently at 6.14 feet with
additional heavy rainfall from thunderstorms over portions of the
basin in northern glades and highlands counties occurring the
afternoon. The forecast trend is an expectation for fisheating
creek to gradually rise over the coming days. At this time, all
the ensemble guidance continues to maintain the creek below flood
stage at palmdale.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 77 92 78 90 10 20 20 20
fort lauderdale 79 91 79 90 20 20 20 20
miami 79 92 79 90 10 20 20 20
naples 77 91 76 91 10 40 20 40

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 02 rag
aviation... 32 mm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boca Raton, Boca Raton Airport, FL157 mi73 minNNE 310.00 miFair81°F75°F84%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBCT

Wind History from BCT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------Calm--CalmS5S10S10S10SE8
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1 day ago--------------CalmCalmS4S7SW9SW9SW9S10S14
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2 days ago--------------SW5SW5W5W5SW8S8S14--S15SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas (2)
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Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:13 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:17 AM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:22 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:28 PM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.710.50.30.40.81.422.52.82.72.41.81.20.70.40.50.81.422.62.92.9

Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas
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Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:09 AM EDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:13 AM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:18 PM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:25 PM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.31.71.211.11.52.12.83.33.53.432.51.91.41.11.21.52.12.83.33.63.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.