Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Palm Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:02PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 2:16 AM EDT (06:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:30AMMoonset 11:29PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Palm Beach, FL
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location: 26.43, -77.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 270523 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 123 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

Aviation. Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some fog will be possible both this morning and again overnight tonight across the interior. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, with the greatest coverage over the interior and Lake region. Some of the storms could drift over to the East Coast during the evening, with the greatest chance for KPBI. Both seabreezes are expected this afternoon.

Prev Discussion. /issued 951 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020/

Update . The very heavy thunderstorms that been over Miami-Dade County late this afternoon into early this evening have dissipated late this evening. Some isolated showers over the northern interior areas have developed late this evening from the outflow of the thunderstorms that was over Miami-Dade and Broward Counties and the left over of the west coast sea breeze. These showers should dissipate during the next couple of hours, as the atmosphere continues to stabilized through the overnight hours. Therefore, added a slight chance of showers for late this evening for the northern interior areas, and remove POPs over rest of South Florida for the overnight hours tonight.

Due to a quite weather night over the eastern areas of South Florida, the Flood Watch has been allowed to expired earlier this evening. However, a Flood Warning remains in effect for most the metro area of Miami-Dade County through midnight tonight, due to the standing water is on the streets that will take time to drain away from the very saturated grounds.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned.

Aviation . The winds will be light and variable tonight with dry conditions along with VFR conditions.

Prev Discussion . /issued 344 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020/

Short Term .

A negatively tilted trough now located across the Gulf of Mexico will lift north and dampen as weak geopotential height rises gradually encompass the region. Low-level troughing now evident across central Florida will gradually shift away to the north as Atlantic ridging noses in from the east. This will keep the low- level winds southerly for today before shifting more SSE on Wednesday. Some drying is noted aloft as compared with the previous 24 hours, and cooling at 500 mb is anticipated by this afternoon. This will allow for some steepening of mid-level lapse rates to occur. Plentiful low-level moisture is still available as evidenced by the 26.12z MFL sounding, which had a precipitable water value of 1.84 inches. This reservoir of moisture should be readily available for tapping into by convection today before it decreases on Wednesday. Warm cloud depths have decreased somewhat from yesterday, but should be in the 10-12 kft range by this afternoon. This points towards efficient warm rain processes within convection today, with the combined low-level forcings of sea breezes and nearby troughing contributing to convective initiation. Given southerly surface winds and southwesterly steering flow the greatest shower and thunderstorm coverage should occur over the east coast metro areas this afternoon. Unfortunately this is the area most suceptible to hydrological issues, given 48 hour rain totals in the 3 to 7 inch range with isolated higher amounts. Decent saturation is still noted via the MRMS QPE-Crest Soil Moisture Analysis, which shows several pockets of soil moisture exceeding 50 percent (notable considering our fairly sandy and well draining soil types). This suggests that runoff from impervious surfaces may be impeded today given the slower absorption anticipated by natural ground cover. As for QPF, comparing the synoptic and mesoscale models suggests areal averages of 0.5 to 1 inches for the east coast metro and coastal areas, with isolated amounts exceeding 3 inches possible. This is in line with the high end (90th percentile) amounts suggested by our Probabilistic QPF Forecast, which is meant to represent a potential reasonable worse case scenario. Therefore wouldn't be surprised if additional flood advisories or warnings are needed this afternoon given the projected rainfall and sensitivity of these areas to additional rainfall. Given sufficient precipitation loading, a few stronger wind gusts are possible today as well in any taller thunderstorm cores. The cooler temperatures aloft suggest that lightning activity may be a little more widespread today as well. High temperatures today should be in the 80s given the more widespread clouds and rain, warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Wednesday.

Long Term . A mid to upper level low will weaken over the Central United States late this week into this weekend, as high pressure builds into the Florida Peninsula from the Western Atlantic waters. This will allow for a easterly wind flow over South Florida late this week leading to more of a typical summer weather pattern with late night/morning shower and thunderstorm activity eastern areas shifting to the interior and west coast metro areas in the afternoon and evening hours.

An mid to upper level low is forecast by the long range models to move southward from Canada into the Northern Atlantic waters early next week which will weaken the high over the Western Atlantic Waters. This should allow for a weak back door cold front to work southward and into South Florida before stalling out. At the same time, the long range models are trying to show lower pressures over the Western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche which will allow for the pressure gradient to tighten over South Florida leading to a breezy northeast wind flow. POPs will also remain in the scattered range for early next week with the highest chances over the interior and west coast metro areas.

Marine .

A transition to a more summer-like pattern is expected over the next day or so with the usual afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, generally benign marine conditions are expected.

Beach Forecast .

A high risk of rip currents is forecast for the East Coast today due to breezy onshore winds.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 88 75 87 75 / 40 20 40 20 Fort Lauderdale 87 77 87 77 / 30 20 40 10 Miami 88 76 87 77 / 30 10 40 10 Naples 87 74 89 73 / 10 10 40 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Aviation . 32/MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boca Raton, Boca Raton Airport, FL157 mi3.5 hrsSSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F69°F83%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBCT

Wind History from BCT (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas (2)
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Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:27 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:24 PM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:24 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.72.31.71.10.50.30.30.61.11.62.12.42.42.11.610.60.30.40.71.21.92.4

Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas
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Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:24 AM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:22 PM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:22 PM EDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.63.42.92.31.71.2111.31.82.42.83.13.12.82.31.71.311.11.41.92.63.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.