Wednesday, September30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Palm Beach Shores, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 7:08PM Wednesday September 30, 2020 11:40 AM EDT (15:40 UTC) Moonrise 5:52PMMoonset 5:02AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 912 Am Edt Wed Sep 30 2020
Rest of today..West northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north northeast. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..North northwest winds around 5 knots becoming north northeast. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north northeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..North northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet along the coast and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers likely through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night and Sunday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 912 Am Edt Wed Sep 30 2020
Synopsis..Shower and Thunderstorm activity will continue across the south florida waters rest of this week into this weekend as a cold front stalls over the region. Some of the showers and storms may bring locally gusty conditions and possibly even a few waterspouts. There is some uncertainty with the front's progress along with a possible tropical low forming over the northwest caribbean sea which could impact the marine forecast later this week into this weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..None the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 29, 2020 at 1200 utc... 12 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 12 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 11 nautical miles northeast of lake worth. 9 nautical miles northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palm Beach Shores, FL
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location: 26.77, -80.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 301426 AAB AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 1026 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

. Morning Forecast Update .

Update. The stalled front across our CWA this morning is starting to generate a few more showers and T'storms across the interior/Everglades. Models are slightly under performing with this both over land and even across the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Satellite imagery shows a well define boundary between more overcast skies to the north and west and sunny skies to the southeast. This is important for the near term as the sunny Atlantic coast will likely be where we see the better rain potential this afternoon. Within this region we are seeing instability gradually increase with heating along with an increase in low level convergence from both sea breeze and stalled frontal boundary. Storm motion to the northeast within the mean deep layer flow is expected. This appears to allow for convection to be rather transient in nature, however, we still can't rule out a modest localized flooding potential this afternoon for the Atlantic coast.

Elsewhere, forecasts look to be on target with limited rain chances and cooler temperatures up north and across the west. Forecast updates are already out and products sent.

Prev Discussion. /issued 745 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020/

.12z Aviation Update.

Aviation . Despite the close proximity to a cold frontal boundary, mostly VFR conditions expected this cycle. Some isolated to scattered showers or T'storms may develop, especially from late morning through early evening. Brief VIS/CIG reductions may be possible, but with the spotty nature kept VCs. That said, future tempos may be needed if confidence increases. Otherwise, expect light northerly winds through the cycle.

Prev Discussion . /issued 330 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020/

.HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE .

Short Term .

Today . A mid to upper level trough of low pressure over the Eastern United States will remain nearly stationary today. This will allow for a cold front over South Central Florida early this morning to move slowly southward through South Florida today and be over the southern areas of South Florida by late this afternoon into this evening. This in turn will keep the steering flow in a south to southwest direction over South Florida today, while the surface winds swing from a southerly direction this morning to more of a north/northeast direction by late this afternoon into this evening.

Showers and even some thunderstorms will be possible today with the focus over the northern areas this morning shifting to the southern areas this afternoon. The PWAT values will also be around 2 to 2.1 inches today over South Florida before dropping a little bit to 1.8 to 1.9 inches this evening. These PWAT values are still in the 90th percentile to near the maximum values for this time of year. Therefore, there could be some heavy rainfall today over South Florida especially over the eastern areas where there is a Marginal Risk of flooding.

Tonight into Friday . The front will then remain nearly stationary tonight into Thursday over the southern portion of South Florida, as the mid to upper level trough elongates over the eastern United States. This will allow for the steering flow to be south to southwest over South Florida, as the surface winds will be from the north to northeast direction. This will keep the PWAT values in the 1.8 to 1.9 inch range tonight into Thursday over South Florida which is still in the 90th percentile range for this time of year. There could also be a couple of short waves in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere moving across the region from the Gulf of Mexico. This will keep scattered to numerous showers along with some thunderstorms over South Florida during this time with the best coverage over the eastern areas. Heavy rainfall threat will also continue tonight into Thursday especially over the eastern areas where a Marginal Risk continues for flooding.

Long Term .

This Weekend . The front will start to move very slowly northward on Friday and should be around Lake Okeechobee by Saturday night and should continue to move slowly northward into Central Florida by Sunday. This will keep South Florida in a south to southwest steering flow with a east to northeast wind flow. This will also keep the deep tropical moisture in place with the PWAT values back into the 2.1 to 2.4 inches over the region. At the same time, short waves in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere will continue to move northeast across South Florida from the Gulf of Mexico, as a right entrance region of a 250 hPa jet streak moves across much of South Florida. Advection of higher theta-e values will also be working into the region on the S/SW steering flow. All of this means that showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region this weekend with the best coverage over the eastern areas with the possibility of heavy rainfall.

However, there is uncertainly in the weather forecast for this weekend as NHC is showing a possible tropical low developing in the NW Caribbean Sea. (NHC is also giving a 10 percent chance of development in the next 2 days and a 60 percent chance of development in the next 5 days on this possible tropical low). The models are showing this low to move to the west northwest into the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. However, if later forecast models shift this low more into the Yucatan Channel this weekend from the NW Caribbean Sea then there could be even more deeper tropical moisture working into South Florida from the South which could lead to greater chances of rainfall across the region.

Next Week . The forecast for next week is very low confidence at this time for South Florida. It all depends on the location and strength of the possible low that NHC is monitoring at this time in the NW Caribbean Sea, and some of the long range models are now trying to bring another tropical low out of the Caribbean Sea and into the Southern Gulf of Mexico by end of next week. At this time, it looks like South Florida will see at least scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. However, we will continue to monitor the latest forecast long range models through the weekend for next week.

Marine . The winds will be light from the south this morning before swinging more out of the north direction this afternoon into tonight with the passage of the front. The winds will then become northeast at late this week into this weekend, as the wind speeds increasing from 5 to 10 knots late this week to 10 to 15 knots this weekend. Seas will remain at 4 feet or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida through the weekend.

Aviation . MVFR/IFR ceilings possible this morning for the Gulf Coast/Lake Okeechobee areas in association with an approaching front. Prevailing VFR elsewhere. Scattered showers through the TAF period, with thunder chances increasing after 16-17z. TEMPOs possible late afternoon/evening for the eastern terminals. Light winds this morning shifting to the ENE-NE around 10 kt this afternoon and evening.

Beach Forecast . The rip current risk should remain fairly low today before increasing late this week into this weekend along the east coast beaches of South Florida due to the easterly to northeasterly wind flow.

Astronomically high tides will lead to minor coastal flood concerns again as we approach full moon late this week into the weekend. This may possibly be enhanced if a strong enough wind with an easterly component develops late this week into this weekend. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Atlantic coast through at least Saturday. Will continue to monitor the high tide forecast to see if a Coastal Flood Advisory will be needed for the Atlantic coast.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 86 75 87 74 / 50 40 80 50 Fort Lauderdale 89 77 88 75 / 50 40 80 60 Miami 90 77 89 75 / 50 40 80 50 Naples 84 73 87 72 / 40 20 60 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Update . 28/Frye


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 11 mi52 min NNE 9.9 G 12 83°F 85°F1014.1 hPa76°F
PEGF1 47 mi52 min E 5.1 G 6 85°F 1014.5 hPa
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 56 mi40 min W 2.9 G 4.1 84°F 1014.9 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Palm Beach - Palm Beach International Airport, FL8 mi47 minNNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F75°F74%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPBI

Wind History from PBI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Port of Palm Beach, Florida
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Port of Palm Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:07 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:09 AM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:24 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.90.70.91.322.63.23.43.32.92.21.610.70.71.11.72.53.13.43.432.4

Tide / Current Tables for West Palm Beach Canal, Florida (2)
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West Palm Beach Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:36 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:17 AM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:53 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:34 PM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.510.70.711.62.32.83.13.12.82.21.71.10.70.60.91.42.12.73.13.22.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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