Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Moore Haven, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 5:32PM Thursday December 12, 2019 11:46 PM EST (04:46 UTC) Moonrise 6:10PMMoonset 7:21AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 935 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Rest of tonight..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of showers late in the evening.
Friday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
Friday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Saturday..West southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Lake waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Saturday night..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Monday and Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of light showers in the morning, then light showers likely in the afternoon.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 935 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis.. Isolated to scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms possible as a frontal boundary over lake okeechobee slowly moves northward. Increasing northeast winds and a northerly swell over the atlantic will bring deteriorating conditions across the atlantic waters tonight. The swell will cause wave heights to increase to between 6 and 8 feet, with the highest seas in the gulf stream. Conditions will begin subsiding early Friday, followed by benign marine conditions during the weekend. Therefore, a small craft advisory is in effect for the atlantic waters for tonight.
Gulf stream hazards..Northeast swells of 2 to 4 feet are possible over the palm beach atlantic waters subsiding to 2 feet or less over miami-dade water tonight. This will allow for the seas to build to 6 to 7 feet over most of the atlantic waters tonight, except up to 8 feet in the palm beach waters. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 12, 2019 at 1200 utc... 13 nautical miles east of fowey rocks. 19 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 18 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 16 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moore Haven, FL
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location: 26.83, -81.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 130037 AAA AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 737 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Aviation. The winds will remain easterly tonight before going more southeast to southerly on Friday over the TAF sites. VCSH will continue tonight into Friday morning before going dry Friday afternoon at most of the TAF sites, except for KAPF taf site where it should be dry between 03Z and 13Z tonight. The vis and ceiling should remain in VFR conditions, but could fall down into MVFR or even IFR conditions with and showers that move over the east coast TAF sites.

Update. A stationary front over the Lake Okeechobee region will move move slowly northward tonight into Central Florida, as low pressure starts to develop in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. This should allow for some drier air to work into South Florida late tonight from the south leading to a decrease in coverage of showers over the east and west coast metro areas through the evening hours. However, there could still be a few showers in the overnight hours along the east coast metro areas due to the easterly wind flow over South Florida. Therefore, plan on lowering the POPs to isolated coverage along the east coast metro areas for late tonight and removing the POPs over the interior and west coast metro areas after midnight.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned.

Prev Discussion. /issued 327 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019/

Short Term .

Tonight through Saturday night .

A frontal boundary stalled around the Lake Okeechobee region will begin to retreat back northward overnight. Bountiful amounts of moisture remain over the region, allowing for showers to develop and focus over portions of the area including along the east coast metro and potentially the Gulf coast metro areas this afternoon and evening. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two, particularly in areas around the frontal boundary. The focus for most of the convection will remain from the Interstate 75/Alligator Alley/Interstate 595 corridor northward, though overnight into Friday morning the focus will shift back towards the Atlantic coast.

Aloft, a mid-level shortwave trough running ahead of the main trough axis will push across the region tonight into Friday morning which could spur that additional convection referenced in the previous paragraph. Once that has pushed east, the main trough axis begins to advance eastward. Accordingly, the surface frontal boundary will push across the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards the peninsula of Florida on Friday night into Saturday. As the sun rises on Saturday morning, the surface front will be knocking on the door of southern Florida.

With the surface low somewhere along the southern Atlantic coast early Saturday morning and then quickly pushing towards the Mid- Atlantic states, the location of the low and trailing frontal boundary will be important to monitor. If the frontal boundary is able to clear across the peninsula into the Atlantic, drier and cooler air behind it will allow for the weekend to dry out faster. If the boundary stalls or lingers across or close to the peninsula, some portions of Southeast Florida could see some chances of rain. The forecast will feature a slight chance of showers for Saturday afternoon to acknowledge this potential for the forecast to change.

By Saturday night/early Sunday morning, things should begin to dry out and temperatures will begin to decrease. Mid to upper 50s will sneak into the Lake Okeechobee region while upper 50s to around 60 will reach into much of Southwest Florida. The majority of Southeast Florida will remain in the 60s.

Long Term .

Sunday through Monday .

Drier and slightly cooler conditions will continue across the region Sunday into Monday, as high pressure quickly builds over the Southeast CONUS behind the aforementioned cold front. As the surface anticyclone continues sliding eastward, winds will follow suit, swinging out of the east then southeast, effectively increasing available moisture through mid week.

Temperatures will also slowly creep back up across the area as winds increase out of the east. Afternoon temperatures will be near 80 along the east coast and mid 80s across southwestern portions. Evening temperatures will also reflect a gradual warming trend with coldest lows Sunday night in the mid 50s across the Lake region to mid 60s along the east coast. By Monday night, most of the region will experience temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s with the east coast in the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday through Thursday .

The mention of rain then returns to the forecast on Tuesday, ahead of the next cold front, which will begin it's decent down the peninsula. While global models maintain similar timing, they have slowed down a pinch, depicting a frontal passage on Wednesday instead of Tuesday evening. The GFS remains the weaker solution with the front losing it's upper level support shortly after passage, while the ECMWF maintains a more robust, convective boundary. Regardless, scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday ahead of the front through the afternoon and early evening hours on Wednesday.

One concern prior to the front's arrival is the chance of patchy fog early Wednesday morning across South Florida, with isolated areas of fog possible over the interior.

Behind the boundary, the ECMWF unsurprisingly depicts stronger cold air advection and blended guidance has dropped overnight temperatures a degree or two from the previous forecast. However, temperatures are still progged to dip into the upper 40s to low 50s near Lake Okeechobee and low 60s along the east coast early Thursday and Friday morning. Thus, given this is still close to the end of the forecast period, and models differ substantially with the finer details, have maintained a middle of the road solution and will continue to monitor as we get closer in time.

Marine . Hazardous boating conditions will continue over the Atlantic coastal waters requiring a Small Craft Advisory with the arrival of a north swell and winds to around 20 knots. These conditions are expected to peak tonight, then begin to subside on Friday as the swells decrease and the winds veer to the SE and weaken. Generally benign weather is expected for the weekend.

Aviation . A stalled front around Lake Okeechobee will keep convection focused along and north of an FLL-APF line this afternoon. Some Atlantic showers could still sneak into MIA/OPF/TMB. Sub-VFR conditions are possible with convection. Activity should decrease later this evening into the overnight with Atlantic convection flaring back up late overnight into the morning hours.

Beach Forecast . An increasing northerly swell will bring an elevated rip current risk and possibly rough surf to the Atlantic beaches through tonight. This swell will begin to subside on Friday, but an elevated rip current risk may linger through the weekend into early next week for many of the Atlantic beaches.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 68 79 65 82 / 70 30 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 70 79 68 82 / 20 30 30 10 Miami 70 81 68 83 / 20 30 30 10 Naples 65 80 67 80 / 40 20 30 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM . None.

Update . 54/BNB Marine . 02/RAG Aviation . 54/BNB Beach Forecast . 02/RAG Short Term . 02/RAG Long Term . 11/HVN


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 43 mi46 min ESE 1 G 1.9
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 51 mi52 min ENE 5.1 G 8 71°F 1020.7 hPa
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 58 mi46 min E 18 G 20
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 61 mi46 min ENE 5.1 G 6

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Okeechobee County Airport, FL33 mi51 minN 010.00 miOvercast68°F66°F94%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOBE

Wind History from OBE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N7N5N5NE3NE4NE3CalmNE7NE8NE7NE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Fort Myers, Florida (2) (expired 1999-03-25)
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Fort Myers
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 02:28 AM EST     1.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:19 AM EST     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:29 PM EST     0.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:55 PM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.21.210.80.50.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.200.20.30.30.40.40.30.30.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Myers, Florida (3)
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Fort Myers
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 02:30 AM EST     1.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:10 AM EST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:57 PM EST     0.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:39 PM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.11.21.21.110.70.50.2-0-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.10.20.40.60.70.70.70.70.70.70.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.