Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Jupiter, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 8:19PM Saturday July 4, 2020 7:44 AM EDT (11:44 UTC) Moonrise 7:08PMMoonset 4:49AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 334 Am Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..West southwest winds around 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night and Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 334 Am Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Synopsis.. Generally benign boating conditions continue through early next week. Only exception will be within isolated showers and Thunderstorms that develop, which will bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.
Gulf stream hazards.. Thunderstorms may produce lightning, gusty winds, small hail, along with potential for waterspouts. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jul 02, 2020 at 1200 utc... 8 nautical miles east southeast of fowey rocks. 11 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 9 nautical miles east of lake worth. 13 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jupiter, FL
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location: 26.91, -80.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 041121 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 721 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Aviation.

Light winds this morning, with both seabreezes developing this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the interior and move towards the east coast in the afternoon. VCTS for all terminals later this afternoon and evening, except KAPF where by late afternoon development along the Gulf seabreeze should move away from west coast. Convection diminishes after sunset. Light and variable winds once again overnight tonight.

Prev Discussion. /issued 326 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020/

Discussion .

Short term (Today through Sunday night):

Not a lot of changes in the overall synoptic scenario for the short term, at least based on the latest model solutions. Broad high pressure remains in control of the Gulf region, while a weak low is seen on models lingering around the MS/AL coastline. An associated sfc boundary remains semi-stationary, stretching from E TX through the FL panhandle and into the W ATL. Meanwhile, the Atlantic high remains centered east enough from Florida to keep the peninsula under a generally weak southerly flow during the next several days, with periods of winds becoming light or even calm.

Therefore, with the synoptic players described above, expect the weak flow to allow for thermodynamic parameters to become the main driving force behind afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Daytime heating will combine with robust afternoon sea breeze circulations to bring another round of showers and a few storms, favoring interior and east coast locations. POPs are slightly higher for this afternoon as moisture is gradually increasing across SoFlo, but still remaining high-end scattered in nature. Outflow boundary collisions could again keep convection going through the early evening hours. Main concerns with any stronger storms that develop are gusty winds, frequent lightning, small hail, and localized flooding from heavy rainfall.

Afternoon temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normals, lower to mid 90s across SoFlo. Heat indices will also remain in the 102-108 range, but just shy of advisory criteria.

Long Term (Monday through Friday):

Monday .

Medium-range model guidance generally remains in good agreement -- depicting a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across the southeastern CONUS, with a closed mid-level low in the Mid-South vicinity. Present indications are that the western periphery of Atlantic sub-tropical high pressure will be situated slightly to the east of South Florida, gradually building across the region through the period. This synoptic setup will support weak deep-layer southwesterly flow across South Florida, with a belt of slightly enhanced mid-level flow to the north of the area.

Guidance suggests that multiple weak vorticity maxima embedded in the mid-level flow will round the base of the aforementioned mid- level low, facilitating subtle height falls and weak ascent across South Florida. Forecast soundings depict modest mid-level lapse rates for this time of year (near 6.5 C/km) which will support enhanced upward air parcel accelerations in convective updrafts. In addition, abundant moisture (PWs of 1.9 to 2.1 inches) will be available across South Florida, driving strong low-level buoyancy and the potential for deeper convection. The focus for rain showers and thunderstorms should initially be across inland South Florida, generally advecting/propagating eastward towards the Atlantic coast -- where sea-breeze/outflow interactions could lead to locally robust updraft/downdraft development. The mode and intensity of convection that may materialize on Monday is difficult to determine at this time (owing to important mesoscale influences), though the aforementioned favorable thermodynamic parameter space combined with modest kinematic support could support loosely organized convection -- capable of producing strong wind gusts/downbursts, locally heavy rainfall and isolated urban/street flooding, and frequent lightning. Depending on the evolution of the mesoscale environment, small hail could also be a potential convective hazard with the strongest storms that develop.

Tuesday .

By Tuesday, it appears that the aforementioned ridge of high pressure will continue building westward across the region, leading to adiabatic warming throughout the middle/upper troposphere and associated muted upward air parcel accelerations within updrafts. Deep-layer flow/shear will remain weak, with a light easterly low- level component across South Florida. Abundant moisture will remain in place across the area (PWs near 2.0 inches) supporting diurnally- driven sea-breeze convection in the afternoon hours -- primarily focused across inland South Florida and spreading northward and eastward. Strong buoyancy, weak mid-level lapse rates, and unimpressive deep-layer flow/shear should lead to short-lived pulse thunderstorms and disorganized re-development along subsequent outflow boundaries.

Remainder of the week .

The aforementioned mid-level ridge of high pressure should continue building westward across the Gulf of Mexico, leading to light/variable low-level flow and primarily disorganized diurnally-driven convection each afternoon across South Florida. With light deep-layer flow and modest moisture lingering across the area, slow storm motions and efficient warm-rain processes could support a localized heavy rainfall and flooding threat across the metro areas -- especially where persistent mesoscale convergence/ascent becomes established.

Extended global model solutions and their ensemble members depict the aforementioned mid-level low pressure area lifting northeastward towards the Eastern Seaboard as it deepens late in the week. Will have to closely monitor the evolution of the synoptic pattern in the extended period, as this solution could favor a dramatic uptick in convective activity/coverage across South Florida -- owing to enhanced large-scale ascent and deep/rich sub-tropical moisture spreading across South Florida. For now, the extended forecast will rely on a consensus of global ensemble solutions and the National Blend of Models in order to deal with uncertainties in the evolving pattern.

Maximum temperatures should remain slightly above average through the extended forecast period, with lower 90s anticipated across the eastern portions of South Florida, and middle to upper 90s across the interior and western areas. Heat index readings should range from 100 to 109 F each afternoon, with the highest readings expected across southwest Florida.

Marine .

Expect mainly benign boating conditions to continue through the forecast period at all the coastal waters. Only exception will be with any thunderstorm that may form, which will bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 93 76 92 77 / 30 30 60 20 Fort Lauderdale 92 79 91 80 / 30 30 60 20 Miami 92 78 92 79 / 30 30 50 10 Naples 93 78 91 77 / 10 20 60 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Aviation . 33/Kelly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 21 mi56 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 80°F 85°F1013.1 hPa
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 45 mi48 min 83°F1 ft

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Palm Beach - Palm Beach International Airport, FL16 mi51 minWSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F75°F90%1014 hPa
Witham Field Airport, FL20 mi57 minW 57.00 miA Few Clouds77°F71°F83%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPBI

Wind History from PBI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW6W6CalmSW7SW6W7SW10
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2 days agoW4NW6W6SW3W85SE10SE11SE12S10SE14S9NW9CalmE7CalmCalmSW3S3CalmSW3CalmCalmSW4

Tide / Current Tables for Lake Worth Creek, Day Beacon 19, ICWW, Loxahatchee River, Florida
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Lake Worth Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:21 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:58 AM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:36 PM EDT     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:43 PM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.70.300.10.411.62.12.32.11.710.4-0.2-0.5-0.5-0.20.41.21.92.42.52.2

Tide / Current Tables for Conch Bar, Jupiter Sound, Florida
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Conch Bar
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:47 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:25 AM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:02 PM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:10 PM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.80.40.100.20.61.11.61.81.81.51.10.50-0.4-0.5-0.40.10.71.31.821.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.