Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tequesta, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:49PM Sunday August 25, 2019 8:25 AM EDT (12:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:46AMMoonset 2:49PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 409 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Today..South winds 10 knots along the coast to south southwest 5 to 15 knots in the gulf stream. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..West southwest winds 5 knots along the coast to west southwest 5 to 15 knots in the gulf stream. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..South southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet along the coast and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West northwest winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West southwest winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds around 5 knots becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 409 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis.. Showers and Thunderstorms will continue to be possible through the week. A low pressure system, which has been meandering around the area for the last couple of days, will begin to slowly exit to the northeast today. By mid week, it should be off the carolina coast and may send a weak swell into the coastal waters off palm beach county, which may cause seas to build to around 4 feet for the middle of the week. Otherwise, seas are forecast to run 1 to 3 feet.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of aug 24, 2019 at 1200 utc... 6 nautical miles east southeast of fowey rocks. 13 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 12 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 11 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tequesta, FL
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location: 26.97, -80.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 250857
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
455 am edt Sun aug 25 2019

Discussion
Current analysis... Rap and wpc analyses depict an elongated, weak
surface trough stretching from the southern fl keys across the
peninsula towards the open waters of the western atlantic. Latest
doppler radar shows all the convection associated with this system
is more than 20 miles offshore of east central fl, with dry
conditions over land. Also, goes-16 low level water vapor (7.34
micron) imagery shows a pocket of dry air still situated over the
peninsula. Interestingly there is also a moisture gradient across
the peninsula, the 00z xmr sounding had a 2.13" pwat while the tbw
sounding only had 1.85" pwat. Most of the area is on the descending
side of the trough axis which will result in northeast to east winds
from melbourne north, and east to southeast winds along the treasure
coast. This trough of low pressure will continue moving away from fl
over the next 24 hours, and will pose no threat to our area even if
it does develop into a tropical system later this week.

Today-tonight... Expect lower rain chances today for areas from
melbourne north due to drier air in the mid upper levels and being
on the descending side of the surface trough axis with northeast
winds across much of central fl. Northeast wind flow typically
results in lower than normal rain chances, thus have opted to go
with 20 percent chance along the volusia coast, with 30 percent for
the rest of the i-4 corridor, lake osceola and brevard counties.

Rain chances are higher along the treasure coast and okeechobee
county (40-50 percent) where higher moisture resides and convergence
along the surface trough should lead to scattered shower and storm
development. The gfs, ecmwf, cmc along with a slew of the high-res
models (hrrr, wrf, arw, nam12) are confident that the deepest
convection will stay south of lake okeechobee, but some of that
heavy rainfall could make its way into martin and saint lucie
counties this afternoon.

The main threat with storms that develop today will be dangerous
cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy downpours. The morning
will start of mostly sunny allowing temperatures to climb into the
low 90s by the afternoon, except into the upper 80s along the coast.

Convection that develops may linger into this evening across the
interior and around lake okeechobee before dissipating after sunset.

Overnight lows settle into the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Friday... The atlantic mid level ridge builds westward across
sofl mon-tue, then retrogrades farther west into the gomex wed-thu,
where it gets absorbed into the eastern lobe of the sonoran ridge.

This leaves a slight weakness in the h50 height fields over fl on
thu-fri.

At the surface, departing low pressure system well offshore the se
conus (currently an 80 pct chc to become a tropical cyclone per nhc
2am twoat) lifts NE offshore the mid atlantic NE conus. The weak col
region over ecfl Mon transitions to freshening westerlies tue-wed as
a cool front sags into the deep south. By thu, the tail end of this
front morphs into a broad low inverted surface trough over florida,
which gradually retrogrades westward into the gomex by Friday night.

Sufficient moisture remains in place to support diurnal shower and
t-storm activity throughout the week. Weak h85-h50 steering flow on
mon will increase out of the west Tue into wed, then weaken again
by thu-fri. Pops this week remain on the high side of normal (50-60)
and these numbers may need to be nudged upward thu-fri should the
aforementioned surface trough develop overhead as progged. Temps
look to remain near to slightly above late august norms through the
period.

Next weekend... While the global model solutions show a large eastern
conus trough developing at days 7-8, the ecm is much more amplified
with it. The GFS is weaker, while showing a large tutt low moving
into the bahamas from the se. Both models show the atlantic surface
ridge axis north of central florida, with either east or SE flow
developing. Best bet this far out is to go with climo temps pops.

Aviation Vfr conditions will prevail for most of today. The
greatest chance for showers will be at vrb fpr sua during the
afternoon hours, though isolated showers could develop across the
rest of the area. Any impacts will be brief, and likely consist of
ifr visibilities. The probability of thunderstorms is very low so
have not included vcts or tempo groups in the tafs at this time, and
likely will not need to in the subsequent TAF updates. Any
convection that does develop will dissipate by sunset

Marine Today-tonight... Mostly favorable boating conditions today
with northeast winds around 5-10 knots and seas around 2-3 feet.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be the main thing to watch
for over the waters today. The main impacts will be dangerous
lightning strikes and gusty winds to 30 knots.

Monday-Thursday... Light chaotic flow on Mon will become westerly on
tue-wed, the back more southerly on Thu as a surface trough develops
over the peninsula. Onshore winds will develop near the coast each
afternoon due to the ecsb circ. There is the potential for strong
offshore moving t-storms Tue and especially wed. Winds remain around
10kt or less with seas 2-3ft, but slightly lower close to the coast.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 89 75 90 75 20 20 60 30
mco 93 76 93 76 30 30 70 30
mlb 89 76 90 77 30 20 60 30
vrb 89 74 90 75 40 30 60 40
lee 94 77 93 77 30 30 70 30
sfb 93 76 93 76 30 20 70 30
orl 93 78 93 77 30 30 70 30
fpr 89 73 93 75 40 30 60 40

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Rodriguez
long term impact wx... Cristaldi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 25 mi56 min SW 2.9 G 6 80°F 86°F1014.5 hPa
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 40 mi26 min 83°F2 ft
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 63 mi26 min SW 13 G 14 84°F 1013.8 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Witham Field Airport, FL15 mi96 minN 07.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity79°F75°F89%1013.2 hPa
West Palm Beach - Palm Beach International Airport, FL20 mi93 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds80°F77°F90%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUA

Wind History from SUA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6CalmE4E4E4E7E6E8--E7E5Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE8E12E12E12E908E10E9E10E11E9E8E11E10SE7SE9SE6SE9SE10E6S4SE3S6CalmS6
2 days agoSE8E8E10E8NE86NE9E9E10E12E8E9E5E7E10E9E7--E8E10E9E6E8--

Tide / Current Tables for 3 miles above A1A highway bridge, Loxahatchee River, Florida
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3 miles above A1A highway bridge
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Sun -- 01:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:02 AM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:03 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:01 PM EDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.811.31.61.921.91.71.310.60.40.30.40.71.21.622.121.81.51.20.9

Tide / Current Tables for Donald Ross Bridge, ICWW, Loxahatchee River, Florida
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Donald Ross Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:26 AM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:04 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:25 PM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:43 PM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.31.72.12.32.221.71.20.80.40.30.40.81.21.82.22.42.42.21.81.410.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.