Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palm City, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:49PM Monday August 26, 2019 6:18 AM EDT (10:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:40AMMoonset 3:50PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 430 Am Edt Mon Aug 26 2019
Today..Northwest winds 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..West winds 5 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 5 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 430 Am Edt Mon Aug 26 2019
Synopsis..An area of low pressure offshore the carolinas will move northeast and away from florida today, with light winds becoming westerly through mid week. Winds will becoming onshore near shore each afternoon due to the east coast sea breeze. Scattered showers and storms are expected each day and night. There will be a slightly better chance for storms to push across the intracoastal waterway and nearshore atlantic on Tuesday.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday august 25th. 41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 22 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palm City, FL
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location: 27.17, -80.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 260905
afdmlb
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service melbourne fl
455 am edt Mon aug 26 2019

Discussion
Current through tonight... Ecfl currently sits inside an area of
light surface low level flow, with the wind and slp pattern
resembling a dissipating trough developing col behind low pressure
centered well offshore the coastal carolinas. Looking aloft, the h50
atlantic ridge continues to build westward over the southern and
central peninsula.

This trend will continue for the next 24 hours, with light variable
winds gradually giving way to the development and inland push of the
atlantic sea breeze. Diurnal convection will be initially driven by
local sea and lake breeze boundaries again today, but then become
more outflow dominant over the interior given the dearth of steering
flow. Rain chances look to be a bit higher over the interior
compared to the coastal counties. Mesoscale model guidance shows the
ecsb to be more convectively active early in the afternoon, compared
to the past several days. However, storms may be more numerous west
of the coastal population corridor i.E from i-95 westward).

Regardless, pops will be higher across the board (50 coast 60
inland) with the main storm threats remaining torrential downpours
of 1-3" and cloud to ground lightning strikes.

Max temps will range from around 90 along the coast to 93-94f well
inland. Mins in the 70s.

Tuesday-Wednesday... As the weak tropical low drifts northeast
towards the north central atlantic, a surface to mid level ridge
builds across the eastern gomex from the southern fl peninsula.

Positioning between these two features will lead to light west to
northwesterly flow mid week, with sea breeze development each
afternoon. Precipitable water values remain over 2.00" which
supports 50-60% pops Tuesday; however dry air wedge approaches the
gulf coast on Wednesday, which may inhibit activity as pwats
decrease to near 1.70".

Sea breeze driven diurnal convection continues in the mid-range,
with convection favored over the interior in the afternoon, then
pushing toward the coast in light westerly steering flow. Temps
remain at late august norms, with highs in the low 90s, lows in the
mid 70s.

Thursday-Friday... Another weak cold front digs across the deep south
early Thursday, pausing before crossing the fl border. Winds ahead
of this stalled front shift from NW to se, transporting higher
moisture to the region. As discussed in previous forecasts, latest
guidance does trend pops upward during this period, as a broad low
forms along the stalled boundary, in turn, developing a more
pronounced sea breeze driven convective setup in the afternoon. As a
result, have drawn likely pops across all land areas Thursday and
tailoring to just the far interior Friday in stronger southeasterly
flow.

Labor day weekend... All eyes shift to the weekend and the fate of
dorian as tropical moisture approaches the fl peninsula. Have drawn
pops near climo at 50%, however this may take an upward trend later
this week depending on the evolution of the tropical cyclone. Models
are still producing various solutions in the fate of dorian over the
next seven days, as it moves wnw across the northeast caribbean and
greater antilles, leading to much uncertainty in the forecast. For
now, higher moisture is expected to reach fl by Saturday, leading to
the potential for a soggy labor day weekend.

Since any potential impacts are nearly a week away, and the peak of
the hurricane season is rapidly approaching, all persons in florida
should closely monitor forecasts and updates this week from both the
national hurricane center and your local national weather service
office. There's no better time than now to review your hurricane
preparedness plan, and make sure you hurricane supply kit is fully
stocked and up to date.

Aviation Vfr with some scraps of cufra sc between 1.5-2.5kft
through sunrise. Expect a fairly robust diurnal CU field to fill in
with onset of shra TS near but perhaps just inland from the coastal
corridor (mainly tix-mlb-sua) by 17-18z. Activity will become more
numerous over the interior, mainly from 20-24z. Pops support tempo
groups late today for the inland aerodromes, but are a little more
marginal for the coastal sites. For the 06z package, the forecast
now shows vcts in the 17z-21z time frame from tix-sua and 2hr tempo
ts sometime within the 20-24z window for the interior.

Marine
Today-tonight... Almost nil pressure gradient over the local waters
will yield a very light and rather chaotic wind flow of less than
10kt with seas 1-2ft near shore and 3ft well offshore. Winds will
become onshore near the coast in the afternoon ecsb circulation.

Scattered marine showers and a few storms, but nothing terribly
strong is expected offshore today.

Tuesday-Friday... Light westerly flow develops over the region on
Tuesday, with brief onshore shifts as the sea breeze develops in the
afternoon. By Thursday, winds shift southeasterly, dragging higher
moisture to the region through the weekend. Offshore moving showers
and thunderstorms are likely midweek, with activity transitioning to
the interior later in the week. Winds 5-10 kts with persistent seas
of 3 ft.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 90 75 91 76 40 30 50 30
mco 93 76 92 77 70 40 60 20
mlb 91 75 90 77 40 30 50 30
vrb 91 74 90 75 50 30 50 30
lee 94 75 92 77 70 40 60 20
sfb 93 76 93 77 60 40 60 20
orl 94 77 92 77 70 40 60 20
fpr 91 74 91 75 40 30 50 40

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Cristaldi
long term impact wx... Smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 26 mi18 min 83°F2 ft
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 40 mi48 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 80°F 86°F1014.6 hPa
SIPF1 49 mi33 min N 7 81°F 81°F1014 hPa
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 74 mi78 min NW 7 G 7 83°F 1013.3 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Witham Field Airport, FL2 mi2.7 hrsN 010.00 miFair79°F77°F94%1013.9 hPa
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL24 mi3.4 hrsN 010.00 miFair77°F73°F90%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUA

Wind History from SUA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNW4W4NW6E6------NE10E10NE8E644CalmCalmCalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmS6S6CalmE4E4E4E7E6E8--E7E5Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE8--E8E12E12E12E908E10E9E10E11E9E8E11E10SE7SE9SE6SE9SE10E6S4SE3S6

Tide / Current Tables for South Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida
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South Fork
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:25 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:43 AM EDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:49 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:38 PM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for North Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida
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North Fork
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:21 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:39 AM EDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:45 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:34 PM EDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.60.60.70.811.11.110.90.70.50.30.20.10.30.50.711.11.21.11

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.