Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orchid, FL

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:57PM Monday August 19, 2019 10:16 AM EDT (14:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:36PMMoonset 9:17AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 415 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot with a dominant period 4 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 415 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis..The atlantic ridge axis will be near or slightly north of cape canaveral today before lifting into north florida tonight. As the ridge shifts north of central florida through Tuesday, an inverted trough will move northwest from the bahamas across east central florida and the adjacent atlantic. Lower coverage of showers and storms expected today, but storm coverage will increase again tonight and Tuesday as the inverted trough approaches and moves across the local waters. The ridge axis is forecast to then remain near or north cape canaveral through late week, resulting in a light but steady southeasterly breeze.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday august 19th. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 26 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 21 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 13 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 8 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orchid, FL
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location: 27.76, -80.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 190810
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
410 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

Discussion
Current...

the atlantic surface ridge axis has lifted north since yesterday,
and the most recent rap analysis places it right at or slightly
north of CAPE canaveral. The drier airmass that limited convective
coverage on Sunday is still in place over much of the area per
latest goes-16 total precipitable water.

Today-tonight...

the light onshore flow over most of the area as a result of the
location of the ridge axis will allow quicker formation and inland
progression of the east coast sea breeze today. As the sea breeze
develops and move inland this afternoon, expecting isolated showers
and storms to develop along it with coverage increasing slightly
across the interior.

Since the sea breeze will make it farther inland today, the
collision with the west coast breeze will occur farther west, likely
west of orlando late in the afternoon into early evening. Even
though moisture will be slightly higher inland and across the north,
the drier air will take its toll on convective coverage once again.

Highest pops of 40% drawn across lake county extending into western
orange, western seminole, and into far western volusia counties
where more boundary interactions will occur.

Chances gradually taper off with south and eastward extent with only
20% along the coast where the drier air will reside. Forecast
soundings show some mid-level dry air to entrain with dcape in
excess of 1000 j kg and temps around -7 c at 500 mb late this
afternoon. So we could see some strong wind gusts up to 50 mph in
any deep convection that forms across the interior. Max
temperatures will be a couple degrees either side of 90 along the
coast with some low to mid 90s inland.

Convection may linger an hour or two past sunset across the far
interior, but things should come to an end by 10-11pm. Moisture will
also begin to increase from the southeast this evening and tonight
as an invert surface trough approaches. Expect an uptick in shower
activity and possibly a few storms over the coastal waters, and some
of these may move onshore. Overnight forecast will include a small
pop along the coast. Min temps mainly in the mid 70s, but onshore
flow could yield some upper 70s near the coast.

Tue wed...

low amp easterly wave over the bahama bank will work its way into
the ERN gomex by Tue aftn... Eroding the WRN flank of the subtropical
ridge currently over central fl while simultaneously "popping" its
axis up to the fl ga border. This will generate a serly flow thru
the h100-h50 lyr with models estimating the h85-h50 steering flow
btwn 5-10kts. While weak, this flow pattern will shift the focus
for diurnal mesoscale boundary collisions back to the west fl coast.

On tue, enhanced low mid lvl moisture behind the wave will work its
way acrs the fl peninsula (h100-h70 mean rh arnd 80pct), followed by
slightly drier air on Wed (h100-h70 mean rh arnd 70pct. H50 temps
will be on the cool side with readings btwn -7c -8c, but with h70
temps hovering arnd 8c, lapse rates through the lyr will yield a
modest 5.5-6.0c km. Occasional ripples in the mid lvl vort fields
will work their way acrs the state from time to time, but these are
difficult to fcst with precision beyond 24-36hrs.

Upr lvls do see a diffluent pattern dvlpg in the h30-h20 lyr which
would provide some dynamic support, but with a dvlpg SE flow and
weak mid lvl dynamic thermodynamic support, pops will be AOB 50pct
thru midweek with interior counties running about 10pct higher than
the coastal counties... 50 40 split on tue, 40 30 split on Wed to
account for the drier air.

Temps generally within 5f of climo avg... Onshore flow will keep aftn
maxes a few degs lower than the interior, but overnight mins a few
degs warmer... U80s l90s and l m70s respectively.

Thu-sun...

subtropical ridge axis fcst to remain over the north half of the fl
peninsula, albeit in a weakened state as a broad troffing pattern
sets up east of the ms river valley. Serly flow pattern will
continue to favor the west peninsula with sea breeze convergence and
mesoscale boundary collisions, leading to a coastal interior split
for precip chances. Pops generally blo 50pct Thu Fri as low lvl
moisture values remain on the low side. Next easterly wave fcst to
approach the fl peninsula late in the week, leading to an uptick in
pops Sat sun. Temps near avg for mid late aug.

Aviation
PrimarilyVFR conditions through the TAF period expected. Drier air
in place will limit convective coverage again today with only
mentionable chances across interior terminals with the higher
potential at lee late afternoon into early evening. Moisture then
begins to increase from the SE this evening and tonight, so may need
to include vcsh at fpr-sua after 00z this evening.

Marine
Today-tonight... Winds will be out of the east to southeast today
around 10 kt early before increasing to 10-15 kt later this
afternoon. Winds from ese SE will continue into tonight but are
forecast to diminish to around 10 kt. Wave models are still
overdoing seas by about half a foot, so will continue to keep seas
around 1 ft nearshore and 2 ft offshore.

Tue-fri... Persistent serly flow thru the week as the bermuda ridge
axis repositions itself over N fl. An easterly wave will push from
the bahamas into the ERN gomex on tue, tightening the low lvl pgrad
to generate a gentle to moderate SE breeze. Pgrad slackens
thereafter, generating a light to gentle SE breeze thru the
remainder of the week. Seas AOB 2ft nearshore and 2-3ft offshore.

Chc of shras tsras thru the pd.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 92 75 89 75 20 20 40 20
mco 94 76 92 75 30 20 50 30
mlb 91 78 88 76 20 20 40 20
vrb 89 76 88 76 20 30 40 20
lee 93 76 93 75 40 30 50 30
sfb 94 76 92 74 30 10 50 30
orl 95 76 92 75 30 20 50 30
fpr 89 76 88 75 20 30 40 20

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Combs
long term impact wx... Bragaw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SIPF1 7 mi32 min NNE 6 81°F 81°F1020 hPa
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 18 mi47 min 84°F1 ft
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 45 mi47 min 78°F1 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 46 mi47 min NNE 6 G 8 82°F 79°F1021.1 hPa
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 53 mi37 min NNE 5.8 G 5.8 82°F 82°F1019.4 hPa76°F
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 82 mi47 min E 8 G 9.9

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Vero Beach, Vero Beach Municipal Airport, FL8 mi24 minE 610.00 miFair86°F78°F77%1019.2 hPa
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL18 mi24 minE 710.00 miFair86°F75°F70%1019.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVRB

Wind History from VRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----W5E9E7E8E12E9E10E9--E5E4E5SE5SE4----NW6----CalmCalmNE4
1 day ago--35--E13E11E9SE14NE7----NW5W5CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago------SW10SW10SW8SW9--SW7--SE8NW4--CalmNW5--Calm--S3S5--CalmSE3S4

Tide / Current Tables for Wabasso, Indian River, Florida
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Wabasso
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Mon -- 02:04 AM EDT     0.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:04 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:12 PM EDT     0.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:35 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.10.10.10-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.100.10.10.20.10.10-0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Sebastian Inlet bridge, Indian River, Florida (2)
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Sebastian Inlet bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:58 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:01 AM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:13 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:16 PM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.71.20.70.40.30.40.81.31.72.12.22.11.81.30.90.50.30.40.71.21.722.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.