Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Roseland, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday July 16, 2020 9:50 AM EDT (13:50 UTC) Moonrise 2:02AMMoonset 3:51PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 415 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 415 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Synopsis..East to east-southeast winds below 15 knots will prevail over the atlantic through this weekend and early next week. Generally favorable boating conditions with seas mainly between 2 and 3 feet, possibly reaching 4 feet at times well offshore this weekend. A pair of weak surface troughs will push westward across the waters Friday through Saturday, and again by Monday.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Wednesday, july 15th. 41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 13 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 7 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Roseland, FL
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location: 27.86, -80.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 160810 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 410 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

DISCUSSION.

. Above Normal Rain Chances Will Return Starting Friday .

Today-Tonight . A rather drastic pattern change will briefly present itself today with a significant drop in precip coverage compared to past days as well as the future forecast. Ridging aloft continues to build across FL, leading to deep easterly flow that will strengthen through the afternoon. As of the early morning, surface obs still reflect a northerly wind component, but will swing onshore soon after daybreak. Further assistance will come with the development of the east coast sea breeze, which will arrive early again, pushing through the interior in the early afternoon.

While onshore flow typically favors interior to west coast thunderstorm activity, today's coverage will be inhibited by a swath of dry air sinking across NE FL and into our northern forecast area. This will result in nil PoPs for most of Volusia and Brevard counties today, with favored development west of the Treasure Coast to Lake Okeechobee and along the Kissimmee River, where a 30% coverage of showers and storms resides. Activity across the south will commence in the early afternoon, and clear relatively quickly to the western peninsula in strengthening steering flow prior to sunset.

Onshore winds will offer a gradual relief to hot temperatures, with afternoon highs peaking in the low 80s at the coast, but still reaching the mid 90s across the far interior, where the moderating effect of oceanic air won't arrive until later in the day. Rain-free over land areas overnight, with low temperatures in the 70s.

Saturday-Next Thursday . The persistent synoptic pattern advertised by Wed morning's model guidance remains unchanged. A strong, zonally oriented H50 ridge will take up residence over the middle CONUS for at least the next and change. Light to moderate deep layer E to ESE flow will result, with diurnal convective chances being modulated by westward moving low to mid level disturbances embedded within the easterlies, and their associated increases in low level moisture/ convergence aiding the diurnal convective cycle.

While blended model guidance is still too aggressive on POPs for several days (60-80+), it has trended down slightly on the two days (Sun, Wed) mentioned yesterday. This is owing to a drier mean air mass on the backside on the lead two disturbances, which guidance continues to show (this may extend into next Thu as well). For these days, guidance has been undercut even more than the remainder of the period (by 10-20 percent, closer to climatological normals). This still yields above average rain chances (50-70, highest south and inland) for the remainder of the period (Fri-Sat and Mon-Tue).

Temps look to average near normal most days, possibly a degree or two lower on the more convectively active days.

AVIATION. Generally VFR. Variable winds through daybreak will quickly shift ENE after 14Z, with the east coast sea breeze development at coastal sites in the late morning/early afternoon. Drier air sinking south across FL will inhibit showers and storms today, and may only need a mention of VCSH at VRB/FPR/SUA briefly in the afternoon. Clearing overnight, with a return of higher coverage on Friday.

MARINE. Northeast winds early this morning will shift onshore by late morning with deepening easterly flow as high pressure builds into the region. E winds of 10-15 knots this afternoon with seas of 2-3 ft. Low end chance of isolated showers across the Atlantic waters during the overnight hours, with a small threat for thunderstorms south of Sebastian Inlet.

Friday-Monday . E to ESE winds 10-12kt with seas mainly 2-3ft, and possibly 4ft well offshore this weekend. Scattered to locally numerous showers and a few TS.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 89 75 87 76 / 10 10 40 10 MCO 92 74 91 75 / 20 0 40 10 MLB 89 78 88 77 / 20 10 60 30 VRB 89 77 87 77 / 20 20 60 30 LEE 93 75 92 74 / 20 0 40 10 SFB 93 74 91 76 / 20 0 40 10 ORL 92 74 91 76 / 20 0 40 10 FPR 90 77 89 77 / 20 20 70 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION . Smith LONG TERM . Cristaldi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SIPF1 0 mi51 min S 8.9 77°F 74°F1021 hPa (+3.0)
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 25 mi55 min 84°F1 ft
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 38 mi55 min 82°F1 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 39 mi81 min N 2.9 G 5.1 83°F
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 47 mi41 min ESE 7.8 G 14 82°F 86°F1019.8 hPa76°F
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 89 mi81 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 86°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Vero Beach, Vero Beach Municipal Airport, FL15 mi58 minNNE 710.00 miFair82°F73°F77%1019.2 hPa
Melbourne International Airport, FL20 mi58 minNNE 610.00 miFair82°F79°F90%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVRB

Wind History from VRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N7NE9NE10NE115W10CalmCalmNW3W7W8NW5CalmCalmW4W3CalmCalmNW3CalmN5NE3N7
1 day agoNW7CalmW4E7E9NE9SW5W8S9CalmCalmNW4W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmW3NW3
2 days agoSW7SW10SW9W10W8
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Tide / Current Tables for Sebastian Inlet bridge, Indian River, Florida (2)
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Sebastian Inlet bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:54 AM EDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:21 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:47 PM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:55 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.81.21.51.81.81.71.410.60.30.10.10.40.81.21.7221.91.61.20.80.5

Tide / Current Tables for Wabasso, Indian River, Florida
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Wabasso
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:42 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:23 AM EDT     0.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:55 PM EDT     0.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-000.10.10-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-00.10.10.20.20.20.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.