Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tampa, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:37PM Saturday December 14, 2019 4:11 AM EST (09:11 UTC) Moonrise 8:10PMMoonset 9:26AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 803 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming southwest around 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely toward morning.
Saturday..West winds around 15 knots then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers early in the morning, then a slight chance of showers late in the morning.
Saturday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..East winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Sunday night..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tuesday..South winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming north around 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 803 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis..A cold front will move through the region tonight into Saturday, with winds becoming southwest and then northwest through the day and wind speeds increasing to exercise caution levels for a time overnight. Winds will diminish starting later Saturday as high pressure builds in behind the front. There remains some potential for sea fog to develop, mainly north of tampa bay, starting tonight into early Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tampa, FL
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location: 27.93, -82.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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FXUS62 KTBW 140559 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1259 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

AVIATION. MVFR/IFR ceilings gradually filling in along and north of I-4, mostly affecting northern terminals at the moment. South/southwest winds gradually increasing through the overnight hours ahead of approaching cold front to 10-12 knots. Thunderstorms will push in from the Gulf with VCTS from 08Z north and 13Z south, respectively. Introduced TEMPO MVFR vsby/cigs along with VRB gusty winds to account for convection during the morning hours. Locally lower categories are possible with heavier storms. Winds will shift out of the northeast and conditions begin to improve by 13Z north and 17Z south.

Prev Discussion. /issued 755 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019/

UPDATE . Water vapor satellite imagery and 500mb analysis maps show a pretty strong jet streak situated over portions of Southern LA, AL and the Florida Panhandle. This is associated with a negatively tilted shortwave trough axis propagating to the ENE towards the FL peninsula. Across much of the state, conditions remain fairly warm and humid. Dewpoints are running in the upper 60s to low 70s in the wake of what has now become a stationary front. The 0Z sounding also shows a weak veering wind profile, indicative of WAA. Combining this WAA with synoptic-scale PVA, this is the perfect environment for large-scale ascent. Indeed this has already been proven to be true with the earlier line of showers that passed through.

However, conditions have stabilized somewhat for the moment, allowing the atmosphere to recover and regroup for round two. What can also be noted in the 0Z sounding is a pretty decent capping inversion around 820mb. This explains why much of the earlier shower activity likely fell apart (in combination with several other factors like SSTs along the shelf). Despite the inversion, the atmosphere has a fairly deep well-mixed layer just above and just below the inversion . suggesting significant positive buoyancy once once this begins to erode.

While some directional shear is noted in the sounding at the moment, and some weak directional shear will continue to exist, what there will be more of tonight is speed shear. RAP soundings from 6Z onward show little directional shear and only around 30kts of speed shear in the first 3km. This does not make for a particularly high threat for tornadoes, but rather for an environment that could support some damaging wind gusts across portions of West Central and SW Florida.

Suffice all that to say, a line of storms is likely to approach the peninsula in the early hours of Saturday morning, bringing the potential for some damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado in the overnight hours to the peninsula. This risk diminishes further to the South as convection moves father away from the most favorable environment. Timing sets up for areas North of Tampa Bay to see the greatest threat between 1AM and 5AM and from Tampa Bay Southward from around 4AM to 11AM. The current forecast remains on track, and no major changes have been made.

MARINE . An approaching cold front will bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms overnight into coastal waters with the potential for gusty winds, heavy rain, and possible waterspouts. A potential for sea fog still exists for the Nature Coast, but this will likely be short-lived and patchy in nature. Cautionary statements are in effect for outer waters tonight, but conditions will begin to settle down after the front passes tomorrow.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. TPA 75 55 74 58 / 30 0 0 0 FMY 79 56 78 61 / 60 0 0 0 GIF 76 52 74 57 / 50 0 0 0 SRQ 78 55 76 58 / 50 0 0 0 BKV 74 48 74 53 / 20 0 0 0 SPG 75 57 75 60 / 40 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EST this morning through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters . None.

AVIATION . Norman PREVIOUS DISCUSSION . Flannery


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 1 mi59 min SE 6 G 8
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 1 mi59 min S 7 G 8.9
MCYF1 2 mi53 min 70°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 7 mi59 min S 9.9 G 12 71°F 69°F1008 hPa
GCTF1 11 mi59 min 71°F 1007.9 hPa71°F
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 15 mi53 min SW 7 G 8.9 73°F 69°F1008.1 hPa
CLBF1 18 mi77 min SSW 8 G 9.9 73°F 1007.7 hPa
MTBF1 20 mi59 min SW 8.9 G 9.9 71°F 1008.3 hPa69°F
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 21 mi59 min S 14 G 15 71°F 71°F1007.8 hPa
PMAF1 21 mi53 min 72°F 71°F1007.9 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 24 mi77 min SSW 13 G 14 72°F 1008.1 hPa
42098 35 mi41 min 70°F3 ft
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 37 mi137 min S 4.1 G 9.9 74°F 1006.3 hPa

Wind History for Berth 223, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL1 mi16 minSW 87.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1008.1 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL5 mi18 minS 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F66°F93%1007.9 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL6 mi75 minSW 1010.00 miFair71°F69°F96%1008.4 hPa
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL8 mi16 minSW 77.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F71°F100%1008.1 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL13 mi18 minSSW 1010.00 miFair74°F68°F82%1007.9 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL15 mi18 minSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds73°F70°F90%1007.5 hPa
Plant City, Plant City Municipal Airport, FL16 mi36 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast72°F71°F100%1008.8 hPa
Lakeland Regional, FL23 mi16 minSSW 11 G 1510.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity0°F0°F%1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTPF

Wind History from TPF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3SE6SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmS6SW6SW4S6CalmS4S5S5CalmSW5S9SW6
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4CalmW6CalmNE6NE13NE16
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Tide / Current Tables for Hillsborough Bay, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay, Florida
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Hillsborough Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:45 AM EST     3.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:25 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:20 AM EST     -0.97 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:35 PM EST     1.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:42 PM EST     1.89 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.932.82.41.81.10.4-0.2-0.7-1-0.9-0.500.61.11.51.61.71.81.91.922.2

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:36 AM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:05 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:17 AM EST     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:25 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:47 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:49 PM EST     1.21 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:47 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:34 PM EST     -0.36 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:25 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.910.60.1-0.5-1-1.4-1.5-1.5-1.3-1-0.50.10.71.11.21.10.70.3-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.10.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.