Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
West Melbourne, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:09PM Thursday October 1, 2020 7:31 AM EDT (11:31 UTC) Moonrise 6:24PMMoonset 5:56AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 402 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Isolated showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 402 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Synopsis..A weak front will remain nearly stationary across south florida into late week. Deep moisture will continue across the southern waters, keeping higher rain chances and potential for isolated Thunderstorms near to south of sebastian inlet. By the weekend, the front lifts northward increasing rain chances across the rest of the region.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, september 29th. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 27 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 8 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Melbourne, FL
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location: 28.04, -80.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 010817 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 417 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

DISCUSSION.

. Flood Watch in Effect for Coastal Martin and St Lucie Counties Through Tonight .

Today-Tonight . Big differences in weather are forecast for today across east central FL. A weak, nearly stationary front will remain just south of the Treasure Coast today. PWAT values of over 2 inches will continue south of Vero Beach through tonight, keeping a very moist air mass over this area. With an enhanced mid/upper level set up, showers and isolated lightning storms will continue this morning and again later this afternoon and evening for the eastern half of St Lucie and Martin counties. This in addition to the heavy rainfall that fell earlier this morning, will keep a high concern for flooding across these areas. Therefore, a Flood Watch was issued for St Lucie and Martin east of I-95. We received reports that areas near Hobe Sound were still dealing with very saturated areas and any additional rainfall will become an issue. Residents and visitors across these areas should stay alert.

Then we got everyone else outside St Lucie and Martin counties. Cloudy skies will clear across the northern counties of Lake and Volusia later this morning, while the rest will be variable in coverage of clouds. No precipitation is expected although a few showers could be possible for eastern Okeechobee and southeast Indian River today through tonight. Highs will warm up to the mid 80s. Lows tonight will range from lower-mid 60s for Lake/Volusia southward to Okeechobee county while the coastal areas will drop to only the upper60s-lower 70s.

Friday . A dry, reinforcing front pushes through most of central Florida late Thursday night into Friday morning, causing the stalled frontal boundary across the Treasure Coast to nudge southward. This pins the deeper moisture mostly in far southern St. Lucie and Martin Counties. Even so, rain chances there are reduced to around 30-40 percent, with perhaps some isolated showers as far north as Vero Beach/Sebastian.

Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be a concern for coastal Martin County where any additional heavy rain in a short period could lead to urban flooding. The rest of the area will be dry on Friday. Afternoon temperatures climb into the mid 80s areawide. Waking up to cool temps in the 60s for much of the area Friday morning, except in the low 70s for the immediate Treasure Coast.

Saturday-Monday . Deep tropical moisture lifts north across central Florida Saturday through Monday, bringing high rain chances and the potential for localized flooding. On Saturday rain and storm chances range from 40-50 percent across the north, to 60-70 percent for the Treasure Coast, and by Sunday the entire area will see a 70 percent chance of rain and lightning storms. Afternoon highs in the low 80s on Saturday climb steadily each afternoon, reaching the mid 80s by Monday. Cool temps in mid/upper 60s for most on Saturday morning, give way to muggy nights with overnight lows Sunday/Monday morning in the low to mid 70s.

Most models agree that by Sunday some kind of tropical system will be organizing in the far northwest Caribbean Sea or near the Yucatan in the far southern GOMEX. At the same time, a trough located over the Southeast U.S. will drag deep tropical moisture associated with the tropical system across the central/northern Florida peninsula.

This is a favorable setup for a potential Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) that could bring heavy rain and flooding to parts of central Florida. North/central FL will be near the right-entrance region of an upper-level jet streak. Combine this with deep moisture through much of the lower atmosphere, stout 850mb moisture transport, and a pseudo-warm front lifting north across central Florida you have the makings for a potential heavy rain event. Need to watch the forecast carefully over the next couple of days.

Tuesday-Wednesday . Wet weather pattern continues into the middle of next week as deep easterlies and abundant tropical moisture result in high rain chances each day. This is a low confidence forecast barring what happens in the tropics this weekend and early next week. Above normal temperatures return as afternoon highs reach the upper 80s areawide, and morning lows settle in the low/mid 70s.

AVIATION. For KMCO, KISM, KSFB and KDAB: VFR for most of the day with cloud bases ranging between 020-035 this morning with brief occurrences of MVFR cigs. Returning to VFR after mid-morning. For KMLB and KVRB, ceilings will prevail today from 025-035, improving tonight. For KFPR and KSUA, SHRA/TSRA will continue this morning and through tonight. Visibilities and ceilings will be reduced to MVFR/IFR with the heavier storms with brief gusty winds up to 20 kt.

MARINE. Today-tonight . With a nearly stationary front south of Martin county, the nearshore and offshore waters east of the Treasure Coast will continue to experience showers and isolated thunderstorms today and tonight. These will reduce visibilities and produce gusty winds of 15 to 20 kt. Otherwise, north to northeast winds 10-15 kt will prevail today, decreasing to below 10 kt tonight. Seas 3-4 ft.

Friday . A reinforcing front moves through the local waters Friday creating poor boating conditions as N/NE winds increase to 15 knots with seas 3-4 feet. Should be a dry day across much of the area, except south of Ft. Pierce Inlet where scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast in the afternoon.

Saturday-Monday . Deep tropical moisture surge north across central Florida, resulting in high rain chances this weekend into early next week. Poor to hazardous boating conditions on Saturday as NE winds increase to 15-20 knots, with seas 3-4 feet. By Sunday into early Monday winds become E/SE and diminish to 10-15 knots, but seas build up to 4-5 feet. Periods of heavy rainfall, occasional lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 30 knots will be possible each day.

HYDROLOGY. The St Johns river at Astor is forecast to remain near to Moderate Flood Stage for the next couple of days before slowly declining later this week into Minor Flood Stage. Water levels along the Middle Saint Johns River Basin are also forecast to remain elevated the rest of this week at Deland, Sanford and Lake Harney. Refer to daily Flood Statements from NWS Melbourne for the latest river levels and forecasts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 81 64 81 64 / 10 0 0 10 MCO 84 65 85 67 / 10 0 0 10 MLB 84 69 84 68 / 10 10 10 20 VRB 85 71 84 70 / 40 20 20 20 LEE 84 64 84 63 / 10 0 0 10 SFB 84 64 84 66 / 10 0 0 10 ORL 85 67 85 68 / 10 0 0 10 FPR 84 70 84 68 / 70 50 30 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Flood Watch through late tonight for Martin-St. Lucie.

AM . None.

Negron/Rodriguez


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SIPF1 15 mi46 min 79°F 78°F1015 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 25 mi35 min 82°F2 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 26 mi43 min N 4.1 G 5.1 75°F 82°F1016.3 hPa
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 39 mi31 min NNE 12 G 14 79°F 84°F1014.6 hPa (+0.4)71°F
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 40 mi35 min 83°F3 ft

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melbourne International Airport, FL5 mi38 minNNE 810.00 miOvercast78°F71°F79%1014.9 hPa
Cocoa - Patrick Air Force Base, FL13 mi35 minNNE 1010.00 miA Few Clouds78°F64°F63%1015.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMLB

Wind History from MLB (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS6S7S11S11
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W12W10W15NW6W5W4SW5SW5S3CalmNW3NW8NW10NW8
2 days agoS3S4S4SW5S64E7SE10E10SE9S5N11NW5CalmE6NE4E6SE5S3SE5SE4S3S3S5

Tide / Current Tables for Canova Beach, Florida
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Canova Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:12 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:15 AM EDT     4.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:30 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.710.70.81.42.33.244.34.23.72.921.30.80.81.32.133.84.34.33.83

Tide / Current Tables for Micco, Indian River, Florida
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Micco
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:57 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:22 AM EDT     0.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 05:15 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:35 PM EDT     0.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.40.30.30.30.30.30.30.40.40.40.40.40.40.30.30.30.30.30.30.40.40.40.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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