Friday, January24, 2020
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palm Shores, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:57PM Friday January 24, 2020 9:31 PM EST (02:31 UTC) Moonrise 7:08AMMoonset 5:51PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 343 Pm Est Fri Jan 24 2020
.small craft exercise caution...
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight, then becoming west 10 to 15 knots towards daybreak. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 11 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 12 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 12 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..West winds 5 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 5 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 343 Pm Est Fri Jan 24 2020
Synopsis..Weakening high pressure over the western atlantic will give way to a cold front, which will cross the late tonight and early Saturday morning. Behind the front, winds will shift to northwest, with continued poor to hazardous boating conditions due to moderate to large swells. Conditions will steadily improve from Sunday morning through early next week.
Gulf stream hazards..West to northwest winds increasing to around 15 knots by Sunrise Saturday. Seas 7 to 8 feet in a large, long period swell into tonight. SWells subsiding to 6 to 7 feet by Saturday morning. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday, january 23rd. 44 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 37 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 30 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 21 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 13 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palm Shores, FL
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location: 28.18, -80.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 242039 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 339 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

DISCUSSION.

. Cooler and Drier This Weekend Behind a Cold Front But Poor to Hazardous Boating Conditions Continue .

Through tonight . Latest surface observations show the cold front near Tallahassee. As it approaches toward central Florida, lift will continue to increase out ahead of it resulting in isolated to scattered showers into this evening. Up until now, models had been very consistent in showers weakening as they push across east central Florida. However, the latest HRRR is trying to show a few storms developing toward the Volusia and Brevard coasts just after sunset. This doesn't seem completely out of the question since temperatures aloft are indeed cold but think the modest instability and moisture will win out in this scenario to keep only showers in the forecast.

Rain chances expected to end by midnight as drier air begins to rapidly work its way in behind the front with winds becoming WNW by sunrise. Low temperatures will also be cooler with low-mid 50s north of Orlando and mid-upper 50s to the south.

Saturday . Skies will continue to rapidly clear out during the morning as much drier air overtakes central Florida behind the front. NW/WNW winds around 10 mph, sunny skies, and high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s will make for a wonderful day outside.

Saturday Night-Monday . (modified previous discussion) Surface high pressure builds in from the Gulf Coast into FL behind tonight's cold frontal passage, as cooler/drier air takes hold through early Sunday. A weak surface wave associated with the southern stream vort pushes across the central-eastern GOMEX Sunday night, and across southern FL Monday, followed by another passing front late Monday.

Colder temps expected Saturday night with widespread low to mid 40s across east central Florida. Cooler with widespread 60s for highs on Sunday, then becoming cloudy with milder temps Sunday night along with increasing rain chances late Sunday night into early Monday.

Tuesday-Friday . (modified previous discussion) Progressive flow pattern continues into late next week. A weak and broad short wave trough will move across the Southeast CONUS/FL Wednesday into Wednesday night, followed by flat ridging aloft through early Friday. High pressure will build over the area for Tuesday into Wednesday. Model discrepancies exist on Wednesday where the GFS moves a surface low and cold front across FL, however these features are mostly nonexistent in the ECMWF. Depending on how this evolves could see showers/storms possible, but too much uncertainty to add to the forecast at this time.

Weak high pressure will rebuild again into FL and the western Atlantic Thursday. By next Friday, global models continue to hint at an area of disturbed weather approaching FL ahead of a deep southern stream trough. This appears to be the best opportunity for rain and perhaps lighting storms, in the next seven days. Temps will average out near to slightly over normal for much of the work week.

AVIATION. Mainly VFR. Isolated showers currently developing across the interior will move toward the coast into this evening. May need to add VCSH at a few sites, but coverage is still expected to be low. A cold front will push across central Florida overnight tonight into Saturday morning with some short-duration MVFR ceilings possible as it does so. TAFs introduce FEW/SCT during times of expected wind shifts, and then drier air will begin to rapidly to move in from north to south behind the front. VFR/SKC by Saturday morning with a few clouds possibly lingering near FPR/SUA.

MARINE.

Tonight-Saturday . Poor to hazardous boating conditions will remain across the waters although conditions are forecast to improve slightly. Small craft advisory from Flagler Beach to Sebastian Inlet has been replaced with a caution statement, but the advisory has been extended through this evening across the nearshore waters south of Sebastian Inlet due to buoy 41114 showing swells still approaching 7 feet.

Winds will gradually veer overnight tonight behind a cold front to WNW/NW and increase to around 15 knots by sunrise.

For Saturday, northwesterly winds will remain around 10 knots nearshore and 10-15 knots offshore. Seas are forecast 5-6 feet across the nearshore waters while still remaining 6-7 feet offshore.

Sunday . North-northwest winds 10-15 knots 10-15KT early Sunday morning weaken to 5-10 knots by early afternoon as high pressure builds over the waters. Moderate swells of 5-6 feet will subside through the day, dropping off to 3-4 feet by Sunday night.

Monday-Wednesday . Winds freshen out of the west Monday ahead of the surface cold front. A northwest surge of winds around 10 knots expected behind this front Monday night. Seas are forecast to remain 3-4 feet across the waters, but could see up to 5 feet if the wind surge is stronger. North winds around 10 knots Tuesday will become light and variable on Wednesday. Generally favorable boating conditions for mid week.

FIRE WEATHER. For this weekend . much drier air is expected to move into central Florida behind a cold front. Min RH is expected to fall as low as 30 to 35 percent during the afternoon hours each day across the interior.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 52 67 42 66 / 20 0 10 10 MCO 55 70 45 68 / 20 0 10 10 MLB 57 73 43 68 / 20 0 10 0 VRB 56 73 43 69 / 20 0 10 10 LEE 54 68 44 68 / 10 0 0 10 SFB 54 69 44 68 / 20 0 10 10 ORL 56 70 46 68 / 20 0 10 10 FPR 56 74 43 69 / 20 0 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm.



Combs/Rodriguez/Watson/Volkmer


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 17 mi32 min 65°F3 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 17 mi50 min S 7 G 8.9 66°F 67°F1017.9 hPa
SIPF1 26 mi47 min S 6 67°F 65°F1018 hPa
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 35 mi32 min S 12 G 14 72°F 73°F1017.5 hPa (+1.2)63°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 94 mi122 min SW 5.1 G 8

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cocoa - Patrick Air Force Base, FL6 mi36 minSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds68°F67°F98%1017.4 hPa
Melbourne International Airport, FL6 mi39 minS 510.00 miFair65°F62°F90%1017 hPa
Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Skid Strip, FL21 mi36 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F63°F90%1016.9 hPa
Titusville, FL24 mi45 minSSW 47.00 miOvercast70°F66°F88%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMLB

Wind History from MLB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3NE5NE3SE3CalmS3NE3N4N3CalmCalmCalmS4S3S5SE6S8SW9S6SE7SE6SE5SE6S5
1 day agoNW10NW9NW8NW9NW8W6NW5N6NW5W6W5NW4CalmE9E14
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Tide / Current Tables for Canova Beach, Florida
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Canova Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:10 AM EST     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:27 AM EST     3.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:42 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 05:50 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:30 PM EST     3.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.5-0.40.31.22.23.13.53.53.12.31.40.60.100.41.122.73.23.22.821.1

Tide / Current Tables for Patrick Air Force Base, Florida
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Patrick Air Force Base
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:58 AM EST     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:16 AM EST     3.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:30 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 05:50 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:19 PM EST     3.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.5-0.20.51.42.53.23.63.532.21.30.50.10.10.51.32.22.93.33.22.71.91

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.