Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Palm Shores, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday July 9, 2020 7:39 AM EDT (11:39 UTC) Moonrise 10:52PMMoonset 9:40AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 406 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
Today..West winds 10 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the morning, then becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 406 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
Synopsis..Above normal coverage of showers and storms will continue through late week, with this activity reaching the intracoastal and nearshore atlantic waters each afternoon from the west. Mainly west to southwest winds will be strong enough to either delay or prevent east coast sea breeze development each afternoon, and if the sea breeze should develop it will remain along the coastal counties.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday, july 5th. 44 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palm Shores, FL
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location: 28.18, -80.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 090810 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 410 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

DISCUSSION.

Today . Developing low pressure along the North Carolina coast combined with the Atlantic subtropical ridge axis remaining across south FL will maintain a westerly sfc and steering flow across central FL. The offshore flow will be strong enough (15 knots at 925-850 mb) to at least delay formation of the east coast sea breeze. The deeper moisture is shifting east of the area but precipitable water values remain high, close to 2 inches. Rain chances are 40-50 percent across the area, which is climatologically average for early July.

Will not see such an early start to the convection like yesterday, so this will allow temperatures to warm into the mid 90s across much of the area, even near the coast due to a slow developing and slow moving sea breeze. Near record highs are possible at Melbourne and Vero Beach.

Temperatures aloft are forecast to be warm, -5C at 500 mb and +10C at 700 mb, resulting in unimpressive lapse rates. However, forecast model soundings show some drier air aloft which should promote some gustiness with storms. A few strong storms will be possible especially where boundary collisions occur (outflow and sea/lake breezes) late in the day near the coast. Lightning strikes will be the primary threat. Heavy rainfall will occur but westerly steering flow around 20 knots should keep storms moving so accumulations should remain low.

Friday-Sunday . Developing low pressure along the eastern seaboard late in the week will extend sfc troughing from the Carolinas to NE FL through the upcoming weekend. The Atlc subtropical ridge axis will remain displaced south and east of the area. Ascd offshore flow pattern across the area in the presence of suitable moisture will lead to higher coverage of showers and storms over the eastern side of the peninsula each afternoon.

Expect numerous showers and storms mid through late afternoon Fri- Sat then slightly lower coverage by Sunday as some drying is indicated in avbl med range guid.

Highs will reach the L-M90s for most locations, with overnight lows in the M70s.

Extended . Guid in general agreement the early portion of next week will feature rebuilding of the subtropical ridge, with initial placement across S FL through around Tue. GFS trends toward more unsettled conditions continuing over the peninsula through midweek with a "dirty" ridge not too well defined locally. EC infers a little more dryer conds due to more classic setting up of a dominant ridge across central FL. Current forecast wl feature slightly higher than normal rain chc through much of the period with lows in the M70s and highs in the L-M90s. Future forecasts for the extended period probably have a better chance of lowering coverage than raising should the ridge indeed set up across central FL by midweek.

AVIATION. Mainly VFR except in scattered TSRA this afternoon. West wind flow 8-10 knots with some higher gusts 15-18 knots during the day. Isold-Sct TSRA will push east across the peninsula with highest coverage near the coastal terminals aft 18Z. Some storms will get a boost from the sea breeze boundary which will be pinned at the coast. Gusty winds 35 to 40 knots may affect one or two coastal terminals.

MARINE. Today . Offshore (west) wind flow will continue today. Pressure gradient will support 10-15 knots turning S/SE during the afternoon near the coast. Seas 1-2 ft nearshore and up to 3 ft offshore. Primary concern will be offshore moving storms during the mid to late afternoon that contain gusty winds up to 40 knots and lightning strikes.

Tonight . S/SW flow in the evening will veer out of the west overnight 10-15 knots. Seas remaining 1-2 ft nearshore.

Friday-Tuesday . With the ridge axis remaining south of the area into early next week, favorable marine conds will continue with seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. The main concern scattered to numerous offshore moving storms producing occasional to frequent lightning strikes and briefly higher winds and seas from mid afternoon through early evening each day.

CLIMATE. Record highs for today, July 9:

DAB 97 2010 LEE 100 1991 SFB 100 2016 MCO 98 1932 MLB 95 1998 VRB 96 1981 FPR 100 1932

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 93 76 92 76 / 50 30 70 20 MCO 94 76 93 77 / 40 20 60 10 MLB 93 76 93 76 / 50 20 60 20 VRB 94 74 94 75 / 40 30 50 30 LEE 92 77 92 77 / 40 20 70 20 SFB 95 76 94 78 / 40 20 70 20 ORL 94 77 93 77 / 40 20 70 20 FPR 94 76 94 76 / 40 30 50 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.



SHORT TERM . Kelly LONG TERM . Pendergrast


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 17 mi44 min 80°F1 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 17 mi52 min WSW 8 G 9.9 78°F 82°F1013.9 hPa
SIPF1 26 mi40 min WSW 7 77°F 76°F1014 hPa (+0.0)
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 35 mi150 min W 16 G 19 81°F 83°F1011.8 hPa78°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 94 mi52 min WNW 1.9 G 5.1

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cocoa - Patrick Air Force Base, FL6 mi1.7 hrsW 1010.00 miFair79°F73°F84%1012.6 hPa
Melbourne International Airport, FL6 mi1.8 hrsW 610.00 miFair76°F75°F100%1012.3 hPa
Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Skid Strip, FL21 mi1.7 hrsW 710.00 miFair79°F75°F90%1012.1 hPa
Titusville, FL24 mi53 minWSW 47.00 miFair0°F0°F%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMLB

Wind History from MLB (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS6SW7S7SW7S8W9S8S6W16
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E4SE4CalmS3S4SW3S4SW6S5S6SW5SW6SW5SW6SW5
2 days agoS4SW6S4S3E8E9E12E13S18
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S6W6W4CalmS5SE3S3S3SW3S4S5S4S6S4SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Canova Beach, Florida
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Canova Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:40 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:35 AM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:52 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.432.31.40.70.30.20.51.222.73.13.12.82.21.40.70.20.10.411.82.63.1

Tide / Current Tables for Patrick Air Force Base, Florida
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Patrick Air Force Base
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:28 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:24 AM EDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:40 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:52 PM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.42.92.11.30.60.20.20.61.42.12.83.23.12.72.11.30.60.20.10.51.122.73.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.