Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sharpes, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:52PM Sunday January 19, 2020 8:14 AM EST (13:14 UTC) Moonrise 2:22AMMoonset 1:36PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 350 Am Est Sun Jan 19 2020
.small craft exercise caution today...
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Monday morning...
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Tuesday..North winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 feet. Very rough on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..North winds 25 to 30 knots diminishing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 8 to 11 feet. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 feet. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 7 to 10 feet. Chance of showers.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 feet. Chance of showers.
AMZ500 Nm-350 Am Est Sun Jan 19 2020
Synopsis..Conditions will remain poor for small craft operation over the local atlantic today due to lingering moderate swells. A strong cold front will push across central florida and the adjacent atlantic tonight, causing conditions to become hazardous once again through mid week.
Gulf stream hazards..South to southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, with seas around 6 feet this morning, building again late tonight to 20 knots and 6 to 8 feet. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday, january 16th. 44 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 32 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sharpes, FL
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location: 28.41, -80.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 190915 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 415 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

DISCUSSION.

. Much Colder Temperatures Will Overspread East Central Florida Behind a Cold Frontal Passage Tonight .

Current . Western flank of the increasingly distant Atlantic high pressure ridge continues to retreat eastward this morning. This has resulted in low level flow having veered to S-SSW as seen in CCAFS 915MHz profiler data. Local 88Ds show patches of light debris rain blowing off from eastern GOMEX convection weakening as the activity moves onshore the FL Big bend region into the northern peninsula. Multichannel IR imagery shows mid/high clouds continuing to stream over the northern half CWA, as lower based marine clouds along the Treasure Coast earlier have shifted eastward and offshore.

Today-tonight . Flat mid level flow will become broadly cyclonic as a short wave trough moving through the base of the long wave eastern NOAM trough shears out across FL. The surface ridge over central Florida this morning will collapse ahead of a strong, fast-moving cold front that will reach northern Lake/Volusia Counties by late evening and push south of Lake Okeechobee a few hours before sunrise. Scattered to numerous showers are expected to break out across the northern and central CWA (Osceola-Brevard Cos northward) from late morning through the afternoon, with highest chances NW of I-4. Max temps will reach the M-U70s across the north and L80s south as in SW flow ahead of the front.

While the chance for showers will continue overnight along and immediately ahead of the front, pre-frontal activity will tend to weaken with time. Strong cold advection will take hold as northerly winds surge to near 15 mph/gusty at times in the much colder post- frontal air mass. Given the frontal timing, expect a large spread in mins, from L40s across north Lake/Volusia to the U50s-60F in Martin Co.

Mon-Tue night. With a cold front across south FL on Mon morning, a few showers will be possible mostly towards Martin county and across the waters east of the Treasure Coast moving away by mid-morning. A high pressure will build over the northern plains and will move to the southeast. Locally, the pressure gradient will tighten up with a wind flow from the NNW. This is the correct setup to bring cold air into east central FL. On Mon, a big range of high temperatures will be observed as the front continues to exit away from our southern counties. These will be capped to the lower 60s from Orange and northern Brevard northward, mid 60s for Osceola and Indian River counties while Okeechobee, St Lucie and Martin counties will reach the upper 60s. On Mon night, temperatures will range from the mid 30s to upper 40s from Volusia towards the interior Treasure Coast while coastal Indian River to Martin counties will remain in the lower 50s. Any shower activity will remain offshore through the night.

On Tue, as the high pressure reaches the middle Mississippi valley, the pressure gradient and consequently the winds will increase off the coast of southeast US and the east coast of FL. Locally winds will continue from the north, keeping weather conditions dry and cool over land as temperatures range from the mid 50s in Volusia/Lake to the mid 60s towards Treasure Coast. On Tue night, winds will remain 10-15 mph from the north, bringing in more cold, dry continental air into the local area. Temperatures will then have another chance to drop even more and these are forecast to range from the mid 30s for northern Lake and interior Volusia, upper 30s for Orange to Okeechobee, lower 40s for the interior Brevard and Treasure Coast and mid-upper 40s for coastal Treasure Coast. This combined with the winds, will make the temperatures to feel around 5 degrees colder. Based on this current forecast, a wind chill advisory could be necessary Tue night for the interior areas of east central FL but we wil continue to update the forecast with each model run.

Wed-Sat . A high pressure along the eastern coast of US will linger Wed and Wed night reaching the Atlantic waters on Fri. This will shift winds from from the north on Wed to NE/E on Thu, E/SE on Fri and SW/W on Sat. Moisture, and therefore rain chances, will increase through the period. Thanks to the shift in winds, temperatures will warm as well, starting in the 60s on Wed and climbing to the mid 70s on Fri and Sat.

AVIATION. VFR through about 15Z. After 15Z, scattered showers producing MVFR CIGs/VSBYS near 3SM/BKN025 will develop near the northern and central terminals well ahead of an approaching cold front. 06Z TAF set does not have TEMPO groups for those northern aerodromes where POPs are 50-60 percent, however, will introduce them with the 12Z package after having a close look at the latest mesomodel guidance suite.

MARINE. Today-tonight . Current buoy obs show seas have dropped off pretty quickly over the past 2-4hr, and now are about 5.5FT at 41009 and 6.5FT at 41010. S-SSW low level wind flow will veer more SW ahead of the approaching cold front today, which should allow for continued small swell decay. Consequently, feel that's it's safe to drop the SCA for today as there will be a ~18hr lull before winds/seas begin to ramp up again tonight.

However, SCA conditions with northerly winds increasing to 20KT and seas building to 6-8ft (highest in the Gulf Stream) spread quickly from N-S across the local Atlantic behind the front. SCA start time follows this line of thinking, commencing at 9PM for the Volusia Co. waters, midnight for Brevard Co., and 4AM for the Treasure Coast.

Lastly, continued moderate swells will maintain a High Risk for dangerous rip currents in the surf zone today.

Mon-Tue night . Hazardous boating conditions will be present on Monday as a high pressure builds over central U.S. and the local pressure gradient increases on Mon. Seas 7-8 ft on Mon will subside during the day but winds will pick up in the afternoon from the north and an advisory for small craft might be necessary for the entire period as winds increase to 25-30 kt Tue afternoon and night.

Wed-Thu . The high pressure that will stretch across the southeast U.S. and mid-Atlantic on Wed will expand and local winds will decrease and veer, becoming onshore late Wed. This period will start with hazardous winds and seas lasting through Thu night. Showers will be also expected across the waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 75 44 58 42 / 60 40 10 0 MCO 77 47 61 43 / 40 40 10 0 MLB 79 54 63 46 / 20 40 10 10 VRB 81 55 65 50 / 10 30 20 10 LEE 75 44 60 39 / 60 40 10 0 SFB 76 44 60 41 / 50 40 10 0 ORL 76 47 61 43 / 50 40 10 0 FPR 81 57 67 50 / 10 30 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Monday for Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Monday for Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.



SHORT TERM . Cristaldi LONG TERM . Negron AVIATION . Cristaldi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 7 mi57 min SSW 8.9 G 12 67°F 71°F1021.6 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 10 mi45 min 72°F3 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 29 mi35 min SW 19 G 23 72°F 73°F1020.7 hPa61°F
SIPF1 41 mi45 min SSW 7 65°F 64°F1021 hPa
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 90 mi90 min SSW 4.1 65°F 1021 hPa60°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Titusville, FL9 mi28 minSSW 77.00 miOvercast64°F62°F94%1020.7 hPa
Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Skid Strip, FL9 mi19 minSW 610.00 miFair66°F60°F83%1020.6 hPa
Cocoa - Patrick Air Force Base, FL14 mi79 minSSW 610.00 miFair65°F64°F99%1020.7 hPa
Melbourne International Airport, FL21 mi22 minN 010.00 miFair60°F59°F96%1020.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTIX

Wind History from TIX (wind in knots)
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S10S9S3S3------------------SW7SW7
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2 days agoW5NW4W6NW5N5NW8--NW9NW944CalmCalm------------------NE12NE11

Tide / Current Tables for Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida
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Canaveral Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:03 AM EST     4.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:17 AM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:35 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:11 PM EST     3.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:17 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.33.23.94.13.93.42.51.60.90.60.611.72.433.23.12.71.910.3-0.100.5

Tide / Current Tables for Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida (2)
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Canaveral Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:56 AM EST     3.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:09 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:35 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:05 PM EST     3.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:34 PM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.73.33.53.22.71.91.10.50.20.40.91.72.433.33.12.61.80.90.2-0.2-0.30.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.