Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:34 AM   Moonset 5:50 PM

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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 344 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west late. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Tonight - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 4 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tuesday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 4 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tuesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southwest 1 foot at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 4 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Thursday night - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 344 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis - An easterly flow continues, but is expected to turn onshore during the afternoon hours as the west coast sea breeze develops. While some Thunderstorms could develop along this boundary, most activity should remain over land. However, southwest florida is more likely to see a storm make it out over the water than other areas. Other than locally hazardous winds and seas in the vicinity of Thunderstorms, no major marine hazards are forecast through the middle of the week.

FXUS62 KTBW 060742 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 342 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 342 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

As the work week gets underway, high pressure continues to have the spotlight. Broad, upper-level ridging remains over the Florida peninsula as a surface high sits off the New England Coast. A predominantly ESE flow remains favored with this setup, advecting some moisture in from the Caribbean. Overall, this setup is one that is likely to only become increasingly common over the next month to month and a half.

However, the atmosphere has yet to take on a fully summertime setup. The mid-levels remain drier and a little cooler, suggesting more stability and continued challenges to convective growth. With PWATs only expected to the 1.5 to 1.6 inch range this afternoon, that is basically just the absolute minimum needed to get storms to develop. Overall coverage shouldn't look too different than how it did tonight in response. Thunderstorms won't really kick off until later in the afternoon and into the evening when the east coast sea breeze finally meets the more trapped west coast sea breeze somewhere probably just a little east of I-75. Only along this collision where there is additional moisture pooling and enhanced vertical ascent are thunderstorms anticipated to develop. From there, a few more isolated cells may develop along outflow boundaries, especially if these boundaries collide with one another, but that overall should be pretty limited.

In response to these trends, afternoon POPs really only peak around 20% for most areas. They are slightly higher across a small section of the Nature Coast, but still on the low side overall. While a few spots most certainly will see some rain again today, the likelihood for any one spot is low at this time.

A similar outcome should repeat for the next couple days, but changes to the synoptic pattern will have an increased influence on our expected conditions by mid-to-late week. Stronger ridging is forecast to build in, favoring more subsidence to limit convective growth. Winds are also expected to veer to more of a southerly, then WSW direction by Wednesday as well, limiting some of the available moisture as well. By late week, a digging trough in the Great Lakes region will try and push a "cold" front through the region. While the added instability and moisture could yield a few more storms (some of which could be stronger with a modified continental airmass aloft), there won't be much noticeable change to overall conditions otherwise. With it being May now, the warmer and increasingly humid weather is largely here to stay.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along the sea breeze boundary. This is most likely to occur when the east coast and west coast sea breeze boundaries collide late this afternoon. With a prevailing easterly flow, this should limit eastward propagation once again, meaning there is a low chance that a thunderstorm could impact most terminals. This is really the only notable aviation hazard for the next few days.

MARINE
Issued at 342 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

An easterly flow continues, but is expected to turn onshore during the afternoon hours as the west coast sea breeze develops. While some thunderstorms could develop along this boundary, most activity should remain over land. However, Southwest Florida is more likely to see a storm make it out over the water than other areas. Other than locally hazardous winds and seas in the vicinity of thunderstorms, no major marine hazards are forecast through the middle of the week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 342 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Warm and dry weather continues across the area, with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms forecast late in the afternoon and into the evening for the next few days. With lighter winds and RH values above critical thresholds, red flag conditions are not expected, despite continued drying in most locations with little-to-no rain.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 74 89 75 / 20 10 10 0 FMY 91 72 92 74 / 20 10 20 0 GIF 91 70 94 71 / 20 20 30 0 SRQ 88 72 89 72 / 10 10 10 0 BKV 91 66 91 66 / 20 10 10 0 SPG 87 76 87 76 / 10 10 10 0

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Hernando Beach
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Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT     2.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:52 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:34 PM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:41 PM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
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Hernando Beach, Rocky Creek, Little Pine I. Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Hudson
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Mon -- 12:40 AM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:24 AM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:14 PM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:10 PM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
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Hudson, Florida, Tide feet

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