Sunday, April18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Conway, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:54PM Sunday April 18, 2021 4:02 PM EDT (20:02 UTC) Moonrise 10:22AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 43% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 341 Pm Edt Sun Apr 18 2021
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers. Chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 341 Pm Edt Sun Apr 18 2021
Synopsis..Scattered to numerous showers and some embedded lightning storms will move east from the mainland generally north of port canaveral this evening. A lingering swell will keep seas a little higher despite winds mainly 10 knots or less. A prolonged period of disturbed wet weather and storms will expand further south into early Monday and continue through early Wednesday. By Thursday, the frontal boundary causing the wet weather will sink south of the local waters, leading to a brief period of hazardous marine conditions later this week.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday, april 18th. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Conway, FL
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location: 28.53, -81.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 181955 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 355 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

DISCUSSION.

. HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG STORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MID WEEK .

Rest of Afternoon-Mon . A frontal boundary which was analyzed over northern FL this morning/early afternoon is forecast to slightly push south towards the Orange/Cape line tonight. As we sit on the warm sector in a SW flow and PWAT values of an inch and a half with dew points in the mid60-near 70 this afternoon, we expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop from Osceola/Lake counties to the northeast. These will be moving to the northeast and reach the coastal counties from Brevard to Volusia and the Atlantic waters. Strong to nearly severe gusty winds and small to isolated large hail remains possible with these storms. This round, reaching the Atlantic, could end later this evening.

Then short term models show another round of a line of storms reaching the west coast around midnight and pushing east overnight. This will originate from the convection currently over the eastern gulf and it will bring heavy rain for most of the forecast area through Mon afternoon. So the start of the work week will be a messy one, as these storms will have the potential to generate heavy rain and thunderstorms causing localized flooding and strong gusty winds.

Tuesday-Wednesday . Early to mid week trends are holding steady, as the frontal boundary dominating the local pattern dances over the FL peninsula. Late Monday night, the boundary will drop towards south FL, sending PoPs of 70-80% across the southern Space and Treasure Coasts overnight. The upper level support for strong to severe storms through the day exits over the Atlantic waters in the late evening hours, which may curb the potential for thunder towards midnight and through the early morning hours. The boundary then switches gears into reverse, trekking back northward on Tuesday, leading to the third consecutive day of PW values above 1.8-2.0" pumping across the Gulf of Mexico. These values are the 90th percentile for mid April, and close to daily maxima for the period of record. Needless to say, the threat for widespread heavy rain looks to be probable through mid week, especially on Tuesday, however, antecedent soil conditions suggest that the flood threat will remain marginal, largely dependent on rain totals over the next 48 hours. For now, do not anticipate the need for a Flood Watch, however, urban flooding could prompt the need for flood warnings, especially in training thunderstorms.

Axis of broad mid-level trough crosses FL by late Wednesday, forcing surface front to drop south of the CWA by late in the day. Moisture axis gradually lessens, but still enough moisture convergence and lift for high POPs across the southern CWA (50-70%), with shower coverage lowering/ending across the north during the day (20-40 percent).

Temperatures Tuesday fall to the low to mid 70s in the afternoon across the north and reach the mid 80s over the southern Treasure Coast following the movement of the boundary. Temps even out on Wednesday, reaching the low 80s areawide on Wednesday. Lows in the low to mid 60s.

Modified Extended Discussion:

Thursday-Friday . Zonal, unperturbed flow returns aloft with post- frontal surface high pressure well to the north ensuring a couple dry and relatively cool days/nights. Max temps ranging from lower 70s north to near 80 far south Thursday, and upper 70s/near 80 CWA- wide Friday. Thursday and Friday morning mins in the 50s, except 60- 65 along the coast south of the Cape.

Longer range guidance suggests another mid-level trough approaches next weekend, with surface front and possible weak gulf low crossing the peninsula. This pattern would return rain chances and warmer temps starting Saturday.

AVIATION. Convective activity took a pause early this afternoon but it should restart after 20z and impact KISM and KMLB northward. A few rounds of SHRA/TSRA with gusty winds are possible to impacts this afternoon, causing brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Then after midnight, another more widespread round of showers and storms will move in from the west and affect most of the terminals through Mon afternoon. These could reduce visibilities and cigs to IFR in pockets of heavy rain and produce strong gusty winds.

MARINE. Tonight-Mon . Conditions across the local Atlantic waters will appear to be good for boating but as storms developing over east central FL move onshore, locally strong winds and higher seas will quickly change marine conditions. Outside any storm activity, winds will be variable up to 15 kt tonight and becoming SW towards Mon morning. Then a shift from the NW is forecast to start in the late afternoon from Volusia waters southward. Seas will be 2-3 ft outside any storm.

Tuesday-Thursday . Prolonged period of daily scattered to numerous showers and strong thunderstorms will last through Wednesday, with the front finally pushing south of the area by Wednesday evening. Southeast winds 10-15 knots will veer NW on Wednesday as the front begins the southward shift, becoming NW to N by early Thursday and increasing over 15 knots. Seas Tue- Wed of 2-4 ft, increasing seas 4- 5 ft nearshore and up to 6 ft in the offshore waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 65 76 63 77 / 80 80 60 80 MCO 68 79 66 79 / 80 80 70 80 MLB 68 82 67 82 / 80 80 70 80 VRB 69 85 66 84 / 50 80 70 80 LEE 67 75 65 76 / 80 80 60 80 SFB 67 77 65 78 / 80 80 70 80 ORL 70 79 67 80 / 80 80 70 80 FPR 67 86 67 85 / 40 80 70 70

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.

Negron/Smith/Leahy/Haley


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 41 mi45 min NE 8 G 12 76°F 75°F1013 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 44 mi37 min 75°F2 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 62 mi23 min 9.7 G 12 76°F1011.2 hPa
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 70 mi129 min E 1.9 G 2.9 73°F 1012.3 hPa

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando Executive Airport, FL2 mi70 minVar 510.00 miFair79°F66°F65%1012.3 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL7 mi70 minNNE 910.00 miOvercast82°F69°F65%1011.6 hPa
Kissimmee Gateway Airport, FL17 mi67 minNNE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F70°F71%1012.2 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL18 mi70 minE 610.00 miFair78°F64°F62%1011.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KORL

Wind History from ORL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12SW9SW9W11W9W6W8NE5E5NE8NE4E5SE3SE9CalmCalmCalmSW5W10SW9N13NE954
1 day agoW3CalmE5N3E3NE5NE6E4E3CalmSE3S5SW7SW8SW8SW4SW73SW12W10SW14W4SW13W13
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W12SW9SW6SW6SW6SW8W11W9W6W8W6W6W8NW4--W6W4W86W5SW7SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Titusville
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:24 AM EDT     3.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:52 AM EDT     3.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:57 AM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:05 PM EDT     3.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:26 PM EDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Playalinda Beach, Florida
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Playalinda Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:35 AM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:45 AM EDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:35 PM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:58 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.43.12.621.41.111.21.72.22.733.12.82.31.71.10.70.50.71.11.82.4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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