Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fern Park, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 8:03PM Sunday August 18, 2019 5:03 PM EDT (21:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:09PMMoonset 8:29AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 315 Pm Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest in the late evening and overnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..South winds 5 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 315 Pm Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
Synopsis..The axis of the atlantic high pressure ridge will lift slowly northward from just north of lake okeechobee to near cape canaveral by tonight. As the ridge shifts north of central florida Monday night and Tuesday, an inverted trough will move northwest from the bahamas across east central florida and the adjacent atlantic. Lower coverage of showers and storms expected today and Monday, but storm coverage will increase again beginning Monday night as the inverted trough approaches and moves across the local waters. The ridge axis is forecast to then remain near cape canaveral through Thursday.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday august 16th. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 31 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fern Park, FL
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location: 28.63, -81.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 181907
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
307 pm edt Sun aug 18 2019

Discussion
Currently-tonight... East coast sea breeze has developed from the
cape southward and is getting a faster inland push from outflow
generated by convection along the treasure coast. Farther
northward formation of the sea breeze is still possible, but will
likely be pinned near the coast in the slightly stronger offshore
flow north of the cape. Most of the hi-res guidance indicates
greatest chance for showers and storms will occur into late
afternoon early evening hours with boundary collisions near the
i-4 corridor. Will keep pops up to 40% across this area into early
evening, with a weak W SW steering flow potentially steering a few
storms toward and offshore the coast of volusia and brevard
counties. Convection should diminish by midnight with no
additional rain chances overnight. Lows are forecast in the low to
mid 70s.

Monday... Drier airmass continues to build in from the southeast
into early this week, which will continue to lower rain chances
across the area. Pops will range from 20 percent across southern
brevard county and the treasure coast, increasing to 30-40 percent
farther north and inland. Subtropical ridge axis across central
florida will continue to build slowly northward, with low level
flow becoming more easterly south of the CAPE and S SE to the
north, which will allow the east coast sea breeze to push well
inland through the day. Highs will range from the upper 80s around
90 degrees along the coast to low 90s over the interior.

Tuesday-Thursday... (modified previous discussion) approaching
low-mid level inverted trough will erode the western flank of the
atlantic ridge starting late mon, leaving the local area in a
rather amorphous h50 pattern aloft through mid week, with the
ridge trying to nose back westward into south florida by Thursday.

A very weak surface reflection of the trough will mark the
leading edge of higher pwat air, which overspreads the area from
se to NW starting Mon night. This erodes the narrow transient
tongue of drier air with pops quickly ramping back up to 60
areawide tue, then back down to a 40 coastal 50 inland split (60
for lake co.) wed-thu as onshore flow become established over the
region. MAX temps look close to normal, with coastal mins
slightly above.

Friday-Sunday... (previous discussion) broad mid level troughing
is progged to redevelop over the eastern conus, keeping the
western flank of the atlantic ridge suppressed a little to the
south of central florida into next weekend. Not surprisingly, the
low level reflection of the ridge, which starts off across the
northern CWA Fri morning, sags south to about the latitude of
melbourne-tampa Saturday, and near lake okee by Sunday. Resultant
veering of wind to S and SW will be accompanied by a slight
increase in mean moisture and pops. For now, the forecast shows a
conservative increase from 40 to 50 percent, given this is out at
the day 7-8 time frame. Temps look fairly close to late august
normals.

Aviation Convection expected to increase in coverage and
intensity thru mid-late aftn into early evening. The ecsb is moving
inland and expect a late day early evening collision across the
central peninsula with the wcsb. The swrly steering flow is slower
today, especially south of kmco, with short range models suggesting
best chance for push-back of storms to the east coast, cape
northward where the flow is a bit stronger. More comfortable with
"vicinity" wording at present and will insert tempo groups as
necessary for MVFR convection. Some wind gusts in upwards of 30 to
35 kts locally will be possible. Again, expect the activity to
diminish during the evening with conditions improving overnight.

Marine
Tonight... A few storms may still push offshore, mainly north of
sebastian inlet into this evening, producing gusty winds and
dangerous lightning strikes. Otherwise, S SE winds up to 10-15
knots will decrease to 10 knots or less, becoming W SW north of
the CAPE after midnight.

Monday-Thursday... The appears to be no appreciable tightening of the
local pgrad or increase in winds with the approach and passage of
the weak inverted trough. Flow pattern for much of the upcoming week
will be a gentle to moderate SE breeze with seas 2-3ft. Coverage of
marine showers storms looks to be highest from Monday night
through Tuesday night.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 73 90 75 89 40 30 30 60
mco 74 93 75 91 40 30 20 60
mlb 75 90 77 89 30 20 30 60
vrb 75 90 76 89 20 20 30 60
lee 75 92 75 92 20 40 20 60
sfb 74 92 75 91 40 40 20 60
orl 75 93 76 91 40 30 20 60
fpr 74 90 76 89 20 20 30 60

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short long term... Weitlich
impact wx... .Glitto
aviation... Sedlock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 43 mi46 min ESE 6 G 9.9 86°F 82°F1020 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 46 mi34 min 80°F1 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 62 mi34 min ESE 7.8 G 7.8 85°F 85°F1018.8 hPa74°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 71 mi79 min W 4.1 82°F 1020 hPa82°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando Executive Airport, FL6 mi71 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds93°F69°F46%1018.5 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL12 mi71 minWSW 610.00 miFair91°F69°F49%1018.2 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL14 mi71 minSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy92°F70°F49%1018 hPa
Kissimmee Gateway Airport, FL24 mi68 minW 510.00 miFair93°F70°F47%1018.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KORL

Wind History from ORL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4SW3SE9S10SW5SW3SW4S5S4SE4S4CalmCalmSW3SW4S7S7S7S8W74CalmS4
1 day agoSW9SW11SW9S6S11SW8S6S7S10S6S6S5S5S5W6SW7SW7SW7SW7SW6W14W11W9W6
2 days agoS5S9S10S10S7S6S8S10S9S6S5SW7S7S6SW7S7S9S8SW7S15S13S9SW19
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Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Titusville
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:51 AM EDT     3.90 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:46 AM EDT     3.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:41 PM EDT     3.92 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:51 PM EDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.9444444

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida
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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:03 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:52 AM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:16 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:11 PM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.91.40.90.50.40.50.91.422.42.52.31.91.40.90.60.40.40.81.31.92.32.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.