Monday, June1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fern Park, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 8:20PM Monday June 1, 2020 8:51 PM EDT (00:51 UTC) Moonrise 3:01PMMoonset 2:31AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 328 Pm Edt Mon Jun 1 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..East winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Tuesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 328 Pm Edt Mon Jun 1 2020
Synopsis..A weak frontal boundary will cross the waters, moving south of the area by this evening. Behind the front, high pressure will build from the mid- atlantic states toward florida, providing a period of freshening onshore flow and poor to hazardous winds and seas through Tuesday. Winds will slacken and veer to southeast to south from mid to late week as the high pressure departs seaward.
Gulf stream hazards..Winds increasing to 20 to 25 knots with seas building up to 7 feet north of sebastian inlet. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday, may 31st. 41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 25 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fern Park, FL
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location: 28.63, -81.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 011917 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 317 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

DISCUSSION.

Current-Tuesday . A Wind Advisory is in effect until 8pm for Volusia, Seminole, Lake, Orange, and northern Brevard Counties. Wind observations continue to show winds at 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts in these areas. Areas not included in the advisory continue to be under criteria; however, KMLB observations have been borderline. Thus, do not plan on adding areas to the advisory, as winds should begin to decrease with diurnal heating. CAMs continue to suggest showers and isolated thunderstorms developing across east central Florida later this afternoon, primarily inland, with showers currently moving SW across Okeechobee County. So, will keep the current PoPs and weather through the evening. Coverage will decrease this evening, but there will be a lingering slight chance of showers along and offshore of the Treasure Coast overnight. Easterly winds decreasing after sunset. Seasonal overnight lows in the low 70s inland, but continued breezy conditions right along the coast will keep temperatures in the mid to even upper 70s there.

Low level high pressure slides offshore of the Carolina coast on Tuesday. Low level moisture will be sufficient enough to maintain 15- 30% PoPs north of Melbourne and 30-40% south. However, the mid-level ridge overhead will keep the atmosphere above 700mb dry enough to suppress any thunder chances. Breezy conditions return, as the pressure gradient tightens. Winds look to be strong enough to warrant another Lake Wind Advisory for Tuesday afternoon. Easterly flow will help to keep temperatures down, especially along the coast. High temperatures in the mid 80s inland and lower 80s along the coast.

Wednesday . (modified previous) Going into Wednesday, the mid-level ridge axis gets nudged eastward as the global models are showing broad troughing developing aloft over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Higher moisture starts to get lifted back northward as a result, and subsequently rain chances increase through the day. Deeper moisture forecast across southern half of the area (south of Orlando) will carry highest rain chances (50-60%) as the sea breezes move inland during the afternoon, with 25-40% northward. Thunder chances continue to look on the lower side, with warmer temps aloft and some lingering dry air, but will leave in a slight chance mention in the forecast, especially with some upper-level support. Max temps in the mid to upper 80s. Onshore flow continuing, but wind speeds look to be less breezy than the previous two days.

Continued deepening moisture and pockets of PVA traversing the area in the troughing aloft will keep elevated rain chances into Wednesday night, with the highest chances along and offshore of the Treasure Coast. Overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Thursday-Sunday . (previous) High rain chances stick around Thursday/Friday with precipitable water progged to remain at or just above 2" across east central Florida. Combined with lift provided by embedded waves in the flow aloft expecting numerous showers both Thurs./Fri along with scattered lightning storms. Forecast soundings are depicting mostly cloudy/overcast skies keeping high temperatures below normal (low 80s).

Global models in better agreement on potential tropical development agreement over the western or central Gulf of Mexico over by late week into this weekend. The National Hurricane Center has a high probability (70%) of this system developing into a TC within the next 5 days.

However, closer to home, a return to a more normal diurnal pattern of afternoon showers and storms. Precipitable water is forecast to remain near 2", and even though this is quite high, forecast soundings are depicting a lot of this in the mid and upper levels with some drying below. This substantial cloud cover could play a role in keeping temperatures below what is forecast and also may hamper daytime instability, so rain chances will remain near climo for the time being.

AVIATION.

Breezy conditions, especially from KISM/KTIX northward. Easterly winds G20-25 kts will diminish after sunset. Models continue to suggest isolated to scattered showers developing this afternoon, so have maintained VCSH to account for this. MVFR conditions possible in showers, but otherwise VFR prevailing.

MARINE.

Current-tonight . Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue through tonight. Easterly winds 20-25 kts diminishing to 15-20kts overnight. Seas building to 5-7 ft. Small Craft Advisories in effect north of Sebastain Inlet.

Tuesday . Chances of showers south of the Cape in the morning, diminishing to a slight chance in the afternoon. Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue with easterly winds 15 to 20 knots with seas of 6 to 7 feet.

Wednesday-Saturday(modified previous) . High rain chances will persist during this period, but outside of showers and storms, boating conditions will gradually improve. E/SE winds will veer SE Thursday and S/SE on Friday while remaining 10 to 15 kt. S 10-1 5 kt Saturday. Seas of 4-5 ft Wednesday will subside to 3-4 ft Thursday and to 2-3 ft Friday and Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 73 81 70 85 / 10 10 10 20 MCO 73 85 70 87 / 20 20 20 50 MLB 76 82 73 84 / 20 30 20 50 VRB 76 83 73 85 / 20 30 30 50 LEE 73 86 70 87 / 10 20 10 40 SFB 71 84 69 87 / 20 20 10 40 ORL 73 84 70 86 / 20 20 10 40 FPR 76 82 73 85 / 20 40 40 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Volusia-Inland Volusia-Northern Brevard-Northern Lake- Orange-Seminole-Southern Lake.

AM . Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.



FORECAST . Leahy IMPACT WEATHER . Blottman AVIATION . Watson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 43 mi52 min ENE 11 G 15 80°F 81°F1020.1 hPa (+0.4)
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 46 mi52 min 80°F3 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 62 mi32 min E 19 G 23 80°F 80°F1019.5 hPa71°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 71 mi67 min E 8.9 79°F 1022 hPa70°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL12 mi59 minENE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F71°F77%1019.2 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL14 mi59 minENE 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F71°F72%1018.8 hPa
Kissimmee Gateway Airport, FL24 mi56 minE 1310.00 miFair82°F72°F72%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KORL

Wind History from ORL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S10S9S8S7S4SE5S6S5S3S5S6S5SE4S7S7S5S5S7S10S7SE10S8W15
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1 day agoSW6NW9S7E3S4SE6SW4SW3CalmCalmS3SE3S4W5S5SW6SW94SW7S8N5E3SE13SE5
2 days agoE19
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E11E17E13E10E11E11E9E7E8E3E7E6NE4N3CalmW3W7W7W9W8W10W8--

Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Titusville
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:06 AM EDT     3.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:36 AM EDT     3.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:18 PM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:39 PM EDT     3.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.8

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida
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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:55 AM EDT     2.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:30 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:37 PM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.81.31.92.32.42.31.91.30.80.3000.30.91.62.22.52.52.31.81.30.70.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.