Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mims, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 8:02PM Saturday August 17, 2019 8:35 AM EDT (12:35 UTC) Moonrise 8:35PMMoonset 7:35AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 353 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East winds 5 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 353 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis..The axis of the atlantic high pressure ridge will lift slowly northward from lake okeechobee this morning to near cape canaveral by Sunday night. As the ridge shifts north of central florida Monday night and Tuesday, an inverted trough will move northwest from the bahamas across east central florida and the adjacent atlantic. Winds wil remain out of the southwest and south through tonight, then become southeast from Sunday through the middle of next week. Scattered storms will push offshore later today, with threat for storms decreasing Sunday and Monday. Storm coverage will increase again beginning Monday night as the inverted trough approaches and moves across the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday august 16th. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 31 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mims, FL
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location: 28.64, -80.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 170820
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
420 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Discussion
Current... Over the last 24h, the mid level trough over the eastern
gomex and nofl has undergone n-s deformation in between the ridges
to its east and west. There continues to be a sw-ne oriented swath
of h25 divergence across this area which is supporting continued
weak-moderate convection along the southern flank of the broad low
to mid level trough. Ktbw radar shows coverage south of the nature
coast is quite a bit lower compared to the past several nights, and
ne steering flow has thus far kept the activity NW of lake county.

Grids are still carrying a small pop NW of i-4 through sunrise.

Today-tonight... Residual mid level troughing to the NW will continue
to deform shear out as the western extension of the atlantic ridge
noses westward into the peninsula. This allows the surface ridge
axis to lift slowly northward, from around lake okee this morning
into the southern half of the cwa, lying across the treasure coast
counties by late tonight. While changes are subtle, slightly lower
mean pwats advecting in from the SE coupled with slight backing of
low level winds (especially se) should lead to slightly lower pops
today, averaging about 50 percent (40 along the SE coast). Steering
flow ranges from around 12kt near vrb-sua to 17kt lee-dab, so storms
will move a little faster across the north today. Isolated diurnal
convection expected to linger for an hour or two post-sunset before
dissipating. MAX temps u80s-90f NW of i-4, and l90s to the se. Mins
in the l-m70s.

Sunday-Monday... Persistent troughing in the low levels of the
atmosphere that has been in place for quite some time will begin to
lift north and east up the eastern seaboard. As it does so the
atlantic ridge axis will start lifting slightly to the north on
Sunday as well. Diurnal scattered showers and storms expected to
develop in the afternoon along both sea breezes, but west to
southwesterly steering flow will transition the higher rain chances
from the interior early in the afternoon toward the east coast later
in the afternoon, especially north of melbourne. Models are showing
a pretty big moisture gradient setting up with precipitable water
around 2.00" N W of i-4 decreasing to around 1.7" toward the
treasure coast. Pops follow this gradient with 50% across the
northern sections and gradually tapering to 30% toward the south.

Available moisture drops off slightly on Monday as the GFS is
showing even more drier air moving in out ahead of a westward-moving
inverted trough. Scattered diurnal convection still expected during
the afternoon along the seabreezes with the eventual collision over
the interior. With some drier air moving in, coverage of showers
and storms shouldn't be as high as Sunday, especially for areas
south of melbourne. Northern interior sections will see the higher
chances with the better moisture and more boundary interactions.

Also, forecast soundings are showing more dry air aloft to entrain
with downdraft CAPE approaching 1000 j kg. So while coverage is not
expected to be as high, storms that do form will have greater
potential for strong wind gusts. Forecast for Monday has rain
chances 20-30% along the coast and 40% interior.

Max temps will be around 90 along the coast and low (possibly some
mid) 90s inland. Lows in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Saturday... Shower and storm chances increase in the
Tuesday Wednesday timeframe as the previously mentioned inverted
trough approaches and moves through bringing deeper moisture across
the area. At the same time, mid-level low troughing begins to re-
establish itself across the NE gulf of mexico into northern florida
providing some additional lift. Forecast GOES slightly above
guidance with 60% areawide on both Tuesday and Wednesday. By late
week into early next weekend, onshore flow patterns looks to become
more established bringing the higher chances for diurnal showers and
storms across the interior. Forecast has 40-50% chances across the
interior and 30-40% along the coast.

Max temps a couple degrees either side of 90. Lows in the mid 70s.

Aviation Vfr through about 17z, followed by MVFR imc in scattered
shra TS developing a mainly wcsb dominant regime. Given the expected
storm coverage of 40-50 percent, and steering winds in the 15-20mph
range, will probably taper back inherited tempo TS groups to a 2hr
window (within the 17z-22z period) for all the local aerodromes.

Marine Today-tonight... A gentle to moderate s-sw breeze today
weakens and backs slightly tonight as the ridge axis begins to lift
north into the local waters south of sebastian inlet. Seas 1-2ft
near shore and 2-3ft offshore today subsiding to 2ft or less tonight.

The risk for strong offshore-moving storms continues this afternoon
and early this evening, especially north of sipf1, where SW steering
winds will be a little stronger.

Sunday-Wednesday... Slightly lower chances for showers and storms
Sunday and Monday before increasing again on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Seas will continue in the 1-2 ft range nearshore through Tuesday
before building to 2-3 ft on Wednesday. Offshore waters will see
generally 2 ft seas (maybe 3 ft well offshore) through Tuesday
before building to 3 ft on Wednesday.

Winds will be S SE on Sunday 10-15 kt, and from Monday-Wednesday
winds will back to ese SE with winds around 10 kt.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 88 73 90 73 50 20 50 30
mco 91 74 92 76 50 20 40 20
mlb 89 75 91 75 40 20 40 30
vrb 90 73 92 73 40 20 30 30
lee 87 74 91 75 50 20 50 20
sfb 91 73 93 75 50 20 50 20
orl 90 74 93 76 50 20 40 20
fpr 92 74 91 74 50 20 20 30

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Cristaldi
long term impact wx... Combs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 19 mi47 min SSE 8 G 8.9 77°F 81°F1019.8 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 22 mi35 min 78°F1 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 34 mi45 min S 5.8 G 7.8 81°F 81°F2 ft1018.2 hPa72°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 74 mi110 min SSW 2.9 73°F 1018 hPa73°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Titusville, FL8 mi48 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F73°F89%1018.3 hPa
Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Skid Strip, FL17 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair76°F75°F99%1018.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTIX

Wind History from TIX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--S5SW10S8S12SW7----SW9SW7SW5SW3S4------------------CalmCalm
1 day agoSW5SW5S76S53S4S9SW5CalmS6S6S6------------------S5S5
2 days agoW5SW5SW5SW10S10S5S10
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SW4S8S4CalmSW6------------------SW5S5

Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Titusville
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Sat -- 01:16 AM EDT     3.87 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:29 PM EDT     3.88 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:18 PM EDT     3.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.9

Tide / Current Tables for Playalinda Beach, Florida
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Playalinda Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:42 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:42 AM EDT     3.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:54 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:05 PM EDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.81.91.10.50.40.81.52.43.23.73.83.52.81.91.10.50.30.61.22.133.743.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.