Sunday, April11, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sugarmill Woods, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:54PM Sunday April 11, 2021 12:51 AM EDT (04:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:08AMMoonset 6:41PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 903 Pm Edt Sat Apr 10 2021
Rest of tonight..South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening, then a slight chance of showers late in the evening. A chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then diminishing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots diminishing to around 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, becoming west toward morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds around 10 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots becoming northeast late in the evening, then becoming east after midnight and increasing to around 10 knots toward morning. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..Southeast winds around 10 knots becoming west late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..West winds around 10 knots becoming south around 5 knots overnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots becoming north toward morning. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..North winds around 10 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 903 Pm Edt Sat Apr 10 2021
Synopsis..Numerous showers and scattered storm along and ahead of the cold front will impact the waters tonight through Sunday night. South to southwest winds in the 15 to 20 knot range with higher gusts in the vicinity of Thunderstorms tonight through Sunday will shift to the west and northwest late Sunday night into Monday with the frontal passage. The showers and storms will end from north to south late Sunday night into early Monday as drier air moves into the region through Tuesday and high pressure builds in over the area in the wake of the front with diminishing winds and subsiding seas expected. Another front will bring additional showers to the waters late Wednesday through Friday, but no significant increase in wind or seas are expected at this time.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sugarmill Woods, FL
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location: 28.72, -82.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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FXUS62 KTBW 110041 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 841 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

UPDATE. First round of convection coming to an end across the area with just some scattered showers ongoing. These majority of showers will wind down over the next few hours with the next round of convection expected to move into the Nature Coast toward sunrise and then continue spreading southward during Sunday. Potential for strong damaging winds, hail, and an isolated tornado/waterspout will exist during Sunday, along with some heavy rainfall that could cause flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. The overall forecast looks ok at this time and only some minor adjustments were made to early tonight.

AVIATION. Some MVFR conditions in the showers will continue for the next few hours, then late tonight aft about 09Z some areas MVFR ceilings will be possible. Majority of the next round of convection will wait until after sunrise around the Tampa Bay area, and until afternoon across the south around PGD, FMY, and RSW. More MVFR/local IFR conditions are expected with this next round of storms. Variable winds behind the initial line of convection will become southerly overnight around 10 knots, then southwest to west in the 12 to 18 knot range with gusts up to 25 knots expected from mid-morning Sunday into the afternoon, but much higher gusts will be possible in the vicinity of the convection.

Prev Discussion. /issued 211 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021/

.Strong To Severe Storms Possible Early Tonight And Sunday. .Some Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible On Sunday. .Hazardous Marine Conditions Expected Through Early Sunday.

DISCUSSION . Upper and surface ridging of late producing warm and dry weather will shift southeast the remainder of today as an upper level low and attendant surface low moves from the Plains northeast toward the mid Mississippi valley/Great Lakes region, with a trailing cold front moving into the Florida Panhandle and southeastern States. A weakening MCS now moving across the eastern Florida Panhandle combined with a short wave aloft, and a pre-frontal surface trough will bring increasing rain chances to the region the remainder of the afternoon through early tonight with a line of showers and thunderstorms now approaching the Nature Coast spreading southeast across the remainder of the forecast area through early tonight. Once this first line of convection moves through we should see a break in the action after midnight through the early morning hours on Sunday, before another line of showers and storms begin to impact the Nature Coast toward sunrise with these showers and storms then spreading southeast across the remainder of forecast area through the day on Sunday as additional short wave energy moves across the area, and the main front sinks south through the region.

Similar to yesterday models depict sufficient instability, fairly strong effective shear (30-40 knot range), and modest helicity, so some strong to severe storms will be possible within the two lines of convection expected to affect the area with damaging wind gusts, hail, and isolated tornadoes or marine waterspouts possible. In addition to the severe threat, increasing moisture (PW in the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range) combined with the possibility of training storms will favor some locally heavy rainfall across the forecast area on Sunday with widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches likely with locally higher amounts possible, which may cause some localized flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas, as well as the ponding of water on roadways.

The showers and storms will end from north to south late Sunday night into early Monday morning as the cold front moves to the south of the forecast area with drier air moving into the region as high pressure builds in over the area. After slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday (around 80 to the lower 80s) due to cloud cover and rain chances associated with the frontal passage, temperatures will remain above normal in the wake of the front with overnight lows in the 60s, with daytime highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s each afternoon. During Tuesday and Wednesday increasing moisture combined with some upper level energy moving across the area may support a few showers each day. Additional showers or storms will be possible Wednesday night through Saturday as additional short waves move across the region while another front approaches and moves slowly south through the area.

MARINE . Numerous showers and scattered storm along and ahead of the cold front will impact the waters tonight through Sunday night. South to southwest winds in the 15 to 20 knot range with higher gusts in the vicinity of thunderstorms tonight through Sunday will shift to the west and northwest late Sunday night into Monday with the frontal passage. Will maintain Cautionary headlines for the near and offshore waters tonight given ongoing and expected trends. The showers and storms will end from north to south late Sunday night into early Monday as drier air moves into the region through Tuesday as high pressure builds in over the area in the wake of the front with diminishing winds and subsiding seas expected. Another front will bring additional showers to the waters late Wednesday through Friday, but no significant increase in wind or seas are expected at this time.

FIRE WEATHER . Breezy and gusty 20 foot winds and transport winds will produce high dispersion over the forecast area through early tonight. Pockets of critically low humidity values near 35 percent will be possible over inland locations the remainder of the afternoon, but no Red Flag conditions are expected. Drier air will move back into the area early next week in the wake of the front as high pressure builds in, but Red Flag conditions are not anticipated at this time.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. TPA 70 79 69 84 / 80 90 40 0 FMY 71 83 70 87 / 70 70 50 10 GIF 69 80 67 87 / 80 90 40 10 SRQ 69 79 68 82 / 80 90 50 10 BKV 64 80 61 85 / 70 90 30 0 SPG 71 78 70 83 / 80 90 40 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. Gulf waters . None.

UPDATE/AVIATION . Close PREV DISCUSSION . McMichael


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 20 mi117 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 65°F 1008.8 hPa
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 37 mi51 min WSW 12 G 16 71°F 1008.8 hPa (+0.4)66°F
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 41 mi117 min S 11 G 13 72°F 1009.2 hPa

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crystal River Airport, FL10 mi56 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist59°F59°F100%1009.5 hPa
Brooksville-Tampa Bay Regional Airport, FL19 mi58 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist59°F57°F93%1009.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGC

Wind History from CGC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS5SE3S4W5W10NW5W6W3CalmW4CalmW3CalmCalmSE3
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Tide / Current Tables for Chassahowitzka, Chassahowitzka River, Florida (2)
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Chassahowitzka
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:51 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT     0.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:52 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:10 PM EDT     0.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1000.10.30.40.50.50.40.40.30.20.10.10.10.10.30.50.50.50.50.40.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Halls River Bridge, Halls River, Florida (2)
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Halls River Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:47 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:44 AM EDT     0.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:48 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:41 PM EDT     0.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.100.10.30.40.50.60.50.50.40.20.20.10.10.20.30.50.60.60.60.50.40.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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