Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Mary, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 8:01PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 8:23 PM EDT (00:23 UTC) Moonrise 10:11PMMoonset 10:13AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 252 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 knots. Seas 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 252 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis..The atlantic ridge axis will remain across northern florida through tonight as an inverted trough moves northwest across central florida and the adjacent atlantic waters. The ridge axis is then forecast to shift south to cape canaveral Wednesday into Thursday, resulting in a light but steady southeasterly breeze. Winds back to more southerly into the weekend as another inverted surface trough approaches and moves across the waters.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday august 19th. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 26 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 21 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 13 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 8 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Mary, FL
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location: 28.78, -81.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 201810
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
211 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Discussion
Current-tonight... 915 mhz CAPE wind profilers continue to show a
deep serly flow above the surface averaging 10-15 kts. Kmlb wsr-88d
shows scattered showers and isolated storms over the interior with
inland moving sea breeze aided by ample moisture and daytime
heating. Activity continues to move from the SE twd the NW at around
15 mph. Greatest chance for convection this afternoon into early
evening will remain over the interior. Both the surface upper mid-
level ridges continue to remain north of the local area due to
unsettledness southward. This will continue to provide a deep
onshore flow across the area. The GFS does show lower pwats (drier
air) filtering into the area from the east late afternoon into the
overnight. As showers diminish this evening across our western
coverage warning area, we maintain a schc for showers along the
coast and near shore atlc waters.

Main impacts with any showers storms today will be occasional
lightning, gusty winds in upwards of around 40 mph, and torrential
downpours possibly leading to nuisance minor flooding locally.

Cloud debris will thin this evening areawide. Min temps m-u70s over
the interior and u70s to around 80 along the coast.

Previous extended forecast discussion...

wed-thu... Subtropical ridge axis fcst to remain over north fl thru
midweek, albeit in a weakened state as a broad troffing pattern over
the great lakes new england region prevents its WRN flank from
expanding any farther north than the fl ga border. This will
generate an E serly flow thru the h100-h50 lyr with models
estimating the h85-h50 steering flow arnd 10kts. This flow pattern
will allow the east coast sea breeze to form by midday and push well
inland, with the west half of the peninsula as the focus for diurnal
convection.

Looking upstream, low mid lvl moisture lvls north of the bahama bank
are not all that impressive with h100-h70 mean rh largely AOB 70pct
and h85-h50 avg dewpoint depressions btwn 7c-10c. H85-h30 omega and
vort fields are weak at best, while at the upr lvls, models are
keeping the fl peninsula on the left (descending) flank of a tutt
that will choke off upr lvl divergence. Furthermore, a weak mid lvl
thermal ridge builds into central fl with h70 temps warming from 8c
currently to arnd 10c on thu. Temps aloft are tepid as well with h50
readings holding btwn -5c -6c... Yielding mid lvl lapse rates arnd
5.5c km at best.

Will go with low precip chances thru thu, with interior counties
arnd 30pct, coastal counties arnd 20pct. Onshore flow will keep aftn
maxes along the coast a few degs lower than the interior, but
overnight mins a few degs warmer... Readings in the u80s l90s and
l m70s.

Fri-mon... Subtropical ridge axis fcst to meander acrs north central
fl as a cold front drops through the mid atlc deep south. Pops ramp
up Fri Sat as the next easterly wave works its way around the base
of the ridge and acrs the fl peninsula. Serly flow pattern will
continue to favor the west peninsula with sea breeze convergence and
mesoscale boundary collisions, but with increasing moisture on the
backside of the wave, prefer to paint the entire CWA with 50pct thru
the weekend. Temps near avg for mid late aug.

Aviation MainlyVFR. Greatest chance for tempo ifr MVFR
conditions in showers and storms this afternoon will be near to
northwest of the i-4 corridor along outflow boundary moving
northwest and east coast sea breeze pushing inland. Lingering shower
or thunderstorm possible near klee into the evening, otherwise only
a slight chance for onshore moving showers will persist along the
coast overnight into early Wednesday morning.

Marine Afternoon-tonight... Ridge axis remains north of the local
waters. Deep onshore flow across the entire area. Serly flow
throughout the period 10-15 kts over the open atlc. Seas around 2 ft
near shore and up to 3 ft offshore. Isolated to widely scattered
shower storm chances with movement SE twd the nw.

Previous extended marine forecast discussion...

wed-sat... Favorable boating conds into the weekend as the bermuda
ridge axis remains over the north half of the fl peninsula,
generating a light to gentle E SE breeze acrs the LCL atlc. Seas aob
2ft nearshore and 2-3ft offshore. Slgt chc of shras tsras Wed thu...

chc shras tsras Fri sat.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 75 87 76 89 20 20 10 20
mco 74 91 74 92 10 30 10 30
mlb 77 87 76 88 20 20 10 20
vrb 74 87 77 88 20 20 10 20
lee 75 91 74 92 20 30 20 30
sfb 74 91 74 93 10 30 10 30
orl 75 91 74 92 10 30 10 30
fpr 74 87 77 88 20 20 10 20

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

All forecast grids... Sedlock
radar impact weather... .Glitto
aviation... Weitlich


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 47 mi53 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 82°F 82°F1020.6 hPa
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 61 mi98 min ESE 5.1 83°F 1021 hPa83°F
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 64 mi33 min Calm G 1.9 83°F 84°F2 ft1019.4 hPa75°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL5 mi90 minE 410.00 miFair85°F73°F70%1018.8 hPa
Orlando Executive Airport, FL16 mi90 minE 1010.00 miFair86°F72°F63%1019.1 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL24 mi90 minE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F73°F68%1018.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSFB

Wind History from SFB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4Calm--------------E3E3E3E5SE9SE7--SE9E7SE8SW8----E4E5
1 day agoSE4CalmCalmS5----Calm----CalmE3CalmCalmE4--S3Calm------CalmW3E3E4
2 days agoSE5S9S4SW3S5S5S5--S3S3S5S4----S6SW6W3W8SW8W6S3N6--E8

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida
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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:12 PM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.31.91.410.60.40.50.81.31.82.22.42.321.61.20.80.60.60.81.21.72.2

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida (2)
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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:11 PM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:33 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.21.81.40.90.50.30.40.71.21.72.22.32.321.61.10.70.50.50.71.21.72.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.