Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Hill, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 8:26PM Sunday July 12, 2020 7:56 PM EDT (23:56 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 12:18PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 255 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 255 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
Synopsis..Dry air will limit rain chances south of sebastian inlet to start the week. A quick increase in rain chances by mid week with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening lightning storms possible. Generally favorable conditions over the open waters with seas 2 feet near the coast and up to 4 feet far offshore, with winds and seas briefly higher where storms move offshore.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday, july 10th. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 27 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 21 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 8 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Hill, FL
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location: 28.9, -80.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 121842 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 242 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

DISCUSSION.

Rest of Today-Tonight . Dry mid-level air has made its presence felt today suppressing much of any shower/storm activity that has tried to develop north of Ft. Pierce. A cluster of lightning storms moved across the southern Treasure Coast late morning into early afternoon. These storms have pushed offshore as light to moderate rain lingers in Martin County.

Some high res models still showing scattered lightning storms developing from Orlando to Daytona Beach and east by late afternoon, but this looks to be overdone. Cannot rule out a stray shower or lightning storm into this evening, so kept a 20 percent chance of rain from Melbourne north, and 30-40 percent to the south (also to account for ongoing rainfall). Activity will wind down by sunset as dry conditions persist into tonight. Temps overnight near normal in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Tuesday . (Modified Previous Discussion) Mid/upper level trough remains positioned down the spine of the eastern seaboard, stretching across the FL peninsula into the GOMEX, remaining the center point between two upper ridges over the TX Gulf Coast and central Atlantic.

A surface boundary associated with this trough will stall over South FL on Monday, keeping axis of highest moisture draped across Lake Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast, with drier air present across most of Central FL. This will lead to a distinct gradient of rain chances; no mentionable rain chance north of I-4, around 10-20 percent from Kissimmee to Melbourne, and the highest coverage of showers and storms along the Treasure Coast to Lake Okeechobee at 40 percent.

On Tuesday, the boundary lifts northward along with the upper trough, expanding PW values near 2.00" across much of the forecast area. As a result, rain chances return to "normal" July ranges from 30-50 percent, and diurnally driven convection along the sea breeze and erratic boundary collisions. Highs will continue to run above normal through the period approaching the mid 90s leading to heat index values above 100 degrees. Nighttime lows remain in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday-Saturday . (Previous Discussion) Upper ridge dominates the southern CONUS in the latter portion of the week, as week upper level disturbances transit across the FL peninsula and Caribbean. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis lifts northward from its position over south FL late on Wednesday, leading to a 180 degree wind shift from west to east by Thursday morning. While the onshore flow regime typically favors diurnal convective development across the interior and towards the west FL coast, a steady stream of moisture from the southeast will keep PW well above 2.00" and thus PoPs of 60-70 percent areawide each day through next weekend. While the most favorable location for boundary collisions will be over the interior, most of east central FL will experience rain and storms at some point through the next 7 days.

The swap to onshore flow will work to influence afternoon high temperatures slightly; Wednesday highs will approach the mid 90s, but after the wind reversal on Thursday, highs become seasonal in the upper 80s at the coast to low 90s across the interior. Lows remain in the mid to upper 70s, with continued chances of warm minimum records.

AVIATION.

Dry air has kept conditions clear across much of the area. Scattered storms moved through VRB/FPR/SUA earlier and now just light to moderate rain is lingering. If any storms manage to develop this afternoon/early evening expect coverage to be very low, with little to no impacts at the terminals. For that reason, removed much of the VCSH/VCTS from the TAFs. Conditions look similar for Monday, highest shower/storm chances from KVRB south.

MARINE.

Rest of Today-Tonight . A cluster of storms moved across the waters south of Ft. Pierce Inlet earlier this afternoon. Now these storms are pushing well offshore with mostly dry conditions persisting over the rest of the local waters. Could see a shower or two develop along the coast through late afternoon as the sea breeze develops, but coverage and intensity will be low. Onshore winds behind the sea breeze will become west again after sunset at 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet nearshore and 3-4 feet far offshore.

Monday-Thursday . West/southwest flow of 10-15 kts will prevail through the early part of the week. By mid week the Atlantic ridge axis builds back across the peninsula, swinging westerly winds onshore. Below average rain chances on Monday with dry air still over the area, then increasing rain chances as we go through the rest of this week. Seas generally 2-3 feet with the continued threat of scattered afternoon thunderstorms by mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 74 94 76 92 / 20 10 10 50 MCO 75 94 76 93 / 10 10 10 50 MLB 75 92 76 92 / 20 20 10 30 VRB 73 92 73 93 / 20 30 10 30 LEE 76 94 78 93 / 10 10 10 50 SFB 76 95 77 93 / 10 10 10 50 ORL 77 95 78 93 / 10 10 10 50 FPR 72 93 73 93 / 20 40 10 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.

Rodriguez/Negron/Watson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 36 mi57 min S 19 G 24 85°F 83°F1011.8 hPa (-0.8)
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 39 mi61 min 81°F3 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 45 mi37 min S 18 G 21 83°F 85°F1010.7 hPa79°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 56 mi72 min SE 8 88°F 1012 hPa75°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL12 mi70 minESE 9 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F75°F84%1010.8 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL22 mi64 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F73°F74%1010.3 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL22 mi64 minW 1010.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity94°F68°F43%1010 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEVB

Wind History from EVB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6W6W5----------------CalmW5W5W5W5SW7SW7SW7SW7SW7SE11
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1 day agoSE5W5W5----------------W5W5W8NW6NW7NW7CalmE6E7E8W5SE5W7
2 days agoW9N9S4----------------W4W7W8W8W6CalmE5SE8S10S5S4SE6S5

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida
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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:03 AM EDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:47 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:39 PM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:06 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.722.121.81.410.70.40.40.50.91.31.7221.81.61.20.90.70.60.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida (2)
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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:06 AM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:44 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:42 PM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:02 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.92.121.71.30.90.50.30.30.40.81.21.61.91.91.81.51.10.80.60.50.60.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.