Sunday, September15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal River, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:36PM Sunday September 15, 2019 10:38 PM EDT (02:38 UTC) Moonrise 7:47PMMoonset 7:22AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 850 Pm Edt Sun Sep 15 2019
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms early in the evening.
Monday..North winds around 10 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..North winds around 10 knots becoming northeast around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..North winds around 5 knots becoming northwest around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..North winds around 10 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots overnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Friday..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 850 Pm Edt Sun Sep 15 2019
Synopsis..Weak high pressure will hold over the region for the early portion of the week with generally light winds and slight seas. During midweek a weakening cool front is expected to push through the region with stronger high pressure building in from the north bringing increasing winds and seas for the second half of the week. Wind speeds are expected to reach exercise caution criteria, possibly advisory levels, during the second half of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal River, FL
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location: 28.91, -82.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 160018
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
818 pm edt Sun sep 15 2019

Update
Convection has begun to wind down with just some patches of light
rain expected for the next few hours. Later tonight mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies are expected as the mid high level debris
clouds gradually dissipate. However, with many areas seeing some
rain today and a light north to northeast flow overnight would not
be surprised to see some areas of low clouds and patchy fog
develop toward morning, especially from around the interstate 4
corridor northward. For the rest of Monday we'll see a northwest
flow develop and with some drier air moving in from the north
during the day the rain chances will be lower, 30 percent or less,
with best chances over the interior. Current forecast looks on
track with no evening update needed.

Aviation
Scattered convection will continue to wind down this evening. Then
overnight and toward morning some patches of low clouds may
develop and mainly effect areas around lal, otherwise mainlyVFR
conditions are expected for the forecast period. During Monday
afternoon an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible,
but overall chance too low to include in terminal forecasts at
this time. Light north to northeast winds overnight into Monday
morning will shift to northwest and increase to between 7 and 12
knots during Monday afternoon.

Marine
Weak high pressure will hold over the region for the early
portion of the week with generally light winds and seas. During
midweek a weakening cool front is expected to push through the
region with stronger high pressure building in from the north
bringing increasing winds and seas for the second half of the
week. Wind speeds are expected to reach exercise caution criteria,
possibly advisory levels, during the second half of the week.

Prev discussion issued 150 pm edt Sun sep 15 2019
short term...

a complex synoptic pattern is currently in play across the region
complements of an upper-level low to the west and tropical storm
humberto to the east. Sandwiched between these two features, a weak
trough axis is draped across the florida peninsula, helping to steer
humberto off to the northeast around the subtropical high.

Similar to dorian a couple weeks ago, humberto is influencing the
flow across the region at the surface. As winds rotate
counterclockwise in a cyclonic fashion, winds are out the of nne for
northern regions, then gradually turning to a more nnw flow
across the southern region of the state. Humberto is caught in a
larger easterly flow pattern at the surface that has been
advecting a large plume of tropical moisture from the western
atlantic, across the peninsula, and ultimately across most of the
gulf. Subsequently, coastal areas are continuing to see more of a
ne flow despite humberto's influence as the upper level low in the
central gulf fights for moisture and energy from the environment.

With ample moisture and a fairly unstable environment, showers and
thunderstorms are developing this afternoon across the region, on
track with this morning's forecast as expected. The highest rain
chances will be concentrated in and around tampa bay extending east
into the interior counties primarily south of i-4.

As humberto continues to move away from the florida coastline, the
pattern will begin to shift to a drier one. The nne wind will
no longer be advecting tropical moisture for humberto over the
region, but drier continental air making its way down from the
conus. Combined with the strong subsidence (sinking air) from
humberto, a dry start to the work week is anticipated.

Long term...

drier conditions will continue through the rest of the work week.

By Wednesday, a "cold" front is expected to enter the scene. While
only contributing a miniscule drop in temperatures, surface
dewpoints are expected to drop significantly. Lower dewpoints will
make conditions feel much more comfortable than usual.

Unfortunately, this too shall pass. By the weekend, a more typical
late summertime pattern is expected to return as easterly flow
brings moisture back into the region and temperatures go back up.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to return by
next weekend.

Fire weather...

scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the region
in the afternoon and evening hours. By tomorrow conditions begin to
dry out and will remain drier through the entire work week. Despite
the drier conditions, sufficient moisture will be present to keep
relative humidity levels above critical thresholds.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 76 92 76 93 20 10 0 10
fmy 77 91 76 93 20 20 10 10
gif 76 93 75 95 20 30 0 10
srq 77 90 77 92 20 0 0 10
bkv 74 93 73 94 20 10 0 10
spg 77 91 77 93 20 10 0 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Update aviation marine... Close
prev discussion... Flannery
upper air... Hurt
decision support... Shiveley


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 26 mi39 min NE 5.1 G 6 80°F 1015.5 hPa (+1.3)74°F
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 33 mi105 min Calm G 1 84°F 1014.4 hPa

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crystal River Airport, FL5 mi44 minNNE 410.00 miFair79°F73°F84%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOCF

Wind History from OCF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN554N5N4N4N6N4N5N6N9NE10
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1 day agoCalmNE4NE3NE3N4N4N43534NE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Twin Rivers Marina, Crystal River, Florida
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Twin Rivers Marina
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:51 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:23 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:11 PM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.511.51.921.81.410.70.40.20.20.51.11.72.22.42.321.51.10.70.3

Tide / Current Tables for Ozello, St. Martin's River, Florida
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Ozello
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:31 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:34 AM EDT     0.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:22 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:17 PM EDT     0.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.20.20.30.40.50.50.50.50.40.30.20.10.10.10.20.30.50.60.60.60.60.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.