Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 3:52 AM   Moonset 4:35 PM

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GMZ355 Expires:202405060415;;670517 Fzus54 Khgx 051509 Cwfhgx
coastal waters forecast for texas national weather service houston/galveston tx 1009 am cdt Sun may 5 2024
upper texas coastal waters from high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nautical miles including galveston and matagorda bays.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz350-355-060415- coastal waters from freeport to matagorda ship channel tx out 20 nm-coastal waters from high island to freeport tx out 20 nm- 1009 am cdt Sun may 5 2024
Today - East winds around 10 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms this morning. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall this afternoon. Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wednesday - South winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1009 Am Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
moderate onshore winds and elevated seas will prevail through Monday resulting in small craft needing to exercise caution at times. Scattered showers and storms, some potentially strong, will be sagging southward and impact the waters for the remainder of the day and evening. Increased flows are anticipated near the san jacinto river and along the intercoastal water way as flood waters enter the bays over the next several days. Navigation will be difficult to hazardous in and near creeks, streams and rivers discharging into the upper texas waters and bays.

FXUS64 KHGX 051725 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1225 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 947 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Bulk of the shortwave that brought another widespread area of showers/tstms to the region has passed to the E/NE. Exception is the tail end which is generally situated along the I-10 corridor.
An east-west oriented boundary and pooling 2" PW's are (and will be) the focus for some embedded stronger downpours for the rest of the day as it trends ese into the H85 20-30kt llvl jet. Good news is this is mostly impacting areas that have seen the least amount of rainfall this past week. Not so good news is that it is falling in a more metropolitan area w/ more concrete. Any heavy rain that falls in a short time period will be prone to runoff and cause street flooding and rises on area creeks, streams, bayous.
Given latest hires model trends, and outside of the ongoing river impacts, think any additional ff impacts will probably be more on the localized scale. There always seem to be a few overperforming cells, so overall messaging will remain pretty much status quo into the early evening followed by a more optimistic outlook thereafter in terms of significant rainfall chances/coverage. 47

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

- The next round of showers and storms has arrive and will continue into this afternoon. Some storms may become strong to severe with gusty winds and hail possible.
- Flood Watch remains in effect for counties along and north of I-10 through 7pm this evening. Generally expecting up to 1-3" of rain within the Watch area with locally higher amounts of up to 4-8" if and where training storms develop.
- Moderate to Major River Flooding will continue for at least the next several days along parts of the Brazos River, Trinity River and West Fork/East Fork of the San Jacinto River.
- Hot and humid weather will be in place for the majority of the upcoming work-week

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, have already begun to develop north of Montgomery County. We can expect an increase in the coverage of these showers and storms through the next several hours producing a quick downpour of 0.5" of rain or less, gusty winds, and maybe even some hail. The main concern will come during the early morning as a now-developing MCS moves through the region from west to east bringing with it heavy rainfall and a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms. MCS looks to pass through the B-CS area between 4am to 5am, the I-45 Corridor between 6am and 8am, and then through Liberty/Chambers counties by 8am and 10am. Rain rates with the strongest storms within this MCS will be around 1-3" per hour, so the quicker it progresses through the area the better. The MCS will also bring the a threat of strong gusty winds, hail, and cannot out-rule a brief tornado either. SPC maintains a Marginal (level 1 of 5) for Severe Storms across the region.

Once the MCS is through, the rain threat does not end. CAMs have been indicating a west-to-east band of showers and thunderstorms developing and training somewhere across the region in the wake of the MCS. Exact location of where this band of showers and thunderstorms develops will be determined by meso-features unknown at this time, but it is more likely to develop somewhere between I-10 and the Pineywoods region. Chance for showers and storms will continue into the afternoon/early evening hours before dying out.

A Flood Watch is in effect through 7pm for counties along and north of I-10. After all the rainfall we have received in the past week, the soils are very saturated. FFG (both 1 and 3 hour)
are around 2 to 3" for areas along and north of I-10 with Walker County into the Pineywoods region being especially susceptible.
Within the Watch area, generally expecting up to around 1-3" of rain through Sunday evening with isolated higher amounts of 4-8" possible. These higher amounts will most likely be seen where the strongest storms of the MCS move over and where the training line of showers and storms develop. The excessive rainfall outlook for today from the WPC has a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for areas along and north of I-10, Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for most of the rest of the area with an area of Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)
for the counties around Matagorda Bay. There is ongoing moderate to major river flooding along portions of the Trinity River, Brazos River, West & East Forks of the San Jacinto River (more on this in the Hydro section below). Not only does this mean that the rainfall that happens today will be slower than normal to drain, but may also see additional rises of the rivers.

Please remember: - Do not drive through or play in flood waters. Never truly know how deep the water is, what is lurking in the waters, nor how fast the water is moving.
- Do not go around barricades. Even if the flood waters have gone down, the ground may not be stable.
- Do no return to homes until officials deem it safe.

Weak midlevel ridging moves overhead Sunday night into Monday, keeping the rain chances low. However, cannot out-rule a pop-up shower Monday afternoon due to lingering low level moisture and daytime heating. High temperatures Sunday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Temperatures rise on Monday thanks to the ridging aloft and southerly flow at the surface with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and low temperatures Monday night in the low to mid 70s.
Heat indicies will approach the low to mid 90s on Monday - but this will only get worse as we head into the long term.

Fowler

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Southwesterly flow aloft, southerly flow at the surface bringing Gulf fueled moisture, and mostly sunny skies will lead to our first real taste of summer in SE Texas during the middle part of the week.
High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be in the low to even mid 90s for most of the region. Heat indicies will be in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then even up to 105 degrees on Thursday. I even suspect that the very saturated grounds due to the recent rainfall may result in even higher dew points across the area making the heat indicies even worse. Our bodies have not acclimated yet to the heat and humidity, so these early season heat events end up being more troublesome.
While it will likely be below normal Heat Advisory thresholds, there may be a need for a Heat Advisory Wednesday or Thursday since these early season events can be more impactful. Either way, please be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if needed to be outside and while doing post-flood recovery efforts.

While rain chances will remain minimal through Wednesday, a slow moving boundary from the north will help bring increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. Global models are currently hinting that this boundary is able to push all the through the region with high pressure settling in for Saturday. However, I am not super confident this boundary will actually make it all the way off the coast as we have been burned by this type of feature beyond Day 5 many times during this time of year.

Fowler

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Another round of showers and storms is entering the area this afternoon. Expect activity to increase across SE Texas with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. These storms may produce gusty erratic winds and large hail. VFR CIGs across the area at present, expect MVFR to mix in there this afternoon as next round of showers moves in. CIGs overnight will drop to MVFR/IFR levels with some MVFR VSBYs closer to sunrise. Expect CIGs to remain at least MVFR through the period with some improvement near the end of the period.

MARINE
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Can expect increasing showers and storms through daybreak with possibly line of strong to even severe thunderstorms moving through during the early morning hours today (between 5 and 10am). Scattered showers and storms will then be possible through the evening.
Onshore winds around 10 to 15kt with occasional gusts to 20kt will prevail through midweek with seas around 4 to 6ft. Small Craft may need to exercise caution levels at times. Because of the continued onshore flow, there will be a moderate to high risk of strong rip currents through the next several days. Drier, but much warmer conditions are expected through midweek.

Fowler

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The Flood Watch has been extended to 7pm CDT Sunday evening and expanded to now include Austin/Colorado Counties. Additional heavy rainfall is expected in areas that have already received excessive amounts of rain over the past few days. At this time, we are anticipating an average of an additional 1-3" of rain with smaller areas of 4-8" possible within the watch area. With soils already saturated, this will likely lead to quick runoff and rapid responses along area rivers/creeks/bayous.

Moderate to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, San Jacinto, and Navasota rivers. The following river points are either at or forecast to go into Major flood stage:

- Trinity River (Riverside): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate forecast to go to Major - West Fork San Jacinto (Conroe): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - San Jacinto (Sheldon): Major Flood Stage - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Major Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Major Flood Stage

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/)
as the river flood threat continues. 

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 80 70 85 73 / 50 20 10 0 Houston (IAH) 80 72 86 75 / 70 20 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 79 74 81 75 / 60 20 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-300-313.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375.

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Freeport Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:15 AM CDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:51 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:50 AM CDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:37 PM CDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:35 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:56 PM CDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Freeport Harbor, Texas (2), Tide feet

Christmas Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:51 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:31 AM CDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:35 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:23 AM CDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:53 PM CDT     0.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:35 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:29 PM CDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Christmas Point, Christmas Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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