Wednesday, February24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Surfside Beach, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 6:19PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 11:48 AM CST (17:48 UTC) Moonrise 3:42PMMoonset 5:07AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ355 Expires:202102242230;;038144 Fzus54 Khgx 240917 Cwfhgx Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx 317 Am Cst Wed Feb 24 2021 Upper Texas Coastal Waters From High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves. Gmz350-355-242230- Coastal Waters From Freeport To Matagorda Ship Channel Tx Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Tx Out 20 Nm- 317 Am Cst Wed Feb 24 2021
Today..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Patchy fog. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Patchy fog. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Patchy fog. A chance of showers in the morning and afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Patchy fog. A slight chance of showers in the evening and overnight.
Friday..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Areas of fog. A slight chance of showers.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Areas of fog. A slight chance of showers late.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Areas of fog. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Areas of fog.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Areas of fog.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Areas of fog. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms late.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 317 Am Cst Wed Feb 24 2021
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Southeasterly flow expected to continue through the weekend. SEa fog is expected to develop today as a result of the warmer air flowing over the cold waters. A weak cold front will approach the coast on Thursday and stall over land before moving back to the north. Latest model guidance indicates the front will not drift close enough to the coast to offer any reprieve from the fog. Fog and rain chances linger into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surfside Beach, TX
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location: 29.04, -95.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 241745 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1145 AM CST Wed Feb 24 2021

AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance].

Flight conditions are unevenly making their way towards VFR late this morning, and are expecting VFR to more firmly take hold this afternoon, but this will be only a brief reprieve. Expect MVFR conditions to return late tonight, while dense sea fog on the Gulf will likely impact GLS and potentially LBX, SGR, and maybe even HOU for a few hours around dawn. Meanwhile, a weak front will be drifting into the area, and we can expect MVFR ceilings to continue, and potentially become IFR through the day. Have some VCSH in the extended at IAH to signal higher rain chances, and will have to be addressed at the other sites in the coming cycles.

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 410 AM CST Wed Feb 24 2021/.

SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night] .

Onshore winds will persist today and this will allow low level moisture to build beneath a strong capping inversion. This WAA pattern will allow for some weak showers or spotty drizzle from time to time. 850 mb temperatures remain very warm so MaxT values will again be very warm. Shaved a few degrees from yesterdays values due to expected cloud cover but MaxT values should reach the mid 70's.

Moisture deepens further tonight and PW values reach 1.20 inches. The saturated layer grows to a depth from the surface to around 800 mb. A weak cold front will also enter SE TX and the combination of deeper moisture coupled with convergence along the front should yield some showers tonight. The front is expected to stall over the central zones tonight so went with slightly higher rain chances over the central zones due to better low level convergence. MinT values will be tricky as the location of the front will dictate the amount of cooling behind the front. NAM is the coldest of the models and looking upstream, it looks a bit colder than current obs so used a MET/MAV blend with MinT values in the lower 50's north and lower 60's south/coast.

Warm and moist air flowing over the cooler shelf waters will produce periods of sea fog tonight near the coast. Will continue to mention sea fog in the wx grids tonight and Thursday. A weak area of low pressure will move along the stalled frontal boundary on Thursday. PW values will hover around 1.20 inches. The additional lift from the weak low, the stalled front and some increasingly favorable jet dynamics should give the area a good chance of rain. The higher rain chances will be over the northern zones, north of the sfc low and closest to the jet dynamics. 43

LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday] .

Through the day on Friday, the weak cold front is expected to move back towards the north. The speed of this northward trajectory will have an impact on MaxT values, especially for our northern counties. For now, leaned towards low 60s in the far north locations to indicate the front not pushing out of the CWA until after peak heating. 70s will be in place further south as onshore flow will prevail through the weekend. This also means that the sea fog threat will likely last into early next week. Steady onshore flow will keep PWATs above 1.25" through at least Tuesday with a couple of peaks over 1.5" on Sunday and Monday. Instability will be on the rise as well with CAPE values of 800-1000 J/kg and LI values around -4 in the northern half of the CWA by Saturday afternoon. With favorable jet dynamics in place as well, the environment seems primed for thunderstorm development through Monday.

There is consensus from the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models that a shortwave trough will drift down from the Four Corners region. Still a bit of uncertainty on how far south it extends. Kept in higher PoPs for our northern counties since PVA looks likely enough to lift the moisture still in place closer to the surface. After Monday is when the models diverge. The ECMWF and Canadian models push a cold front through the region on Monday night/Tuesday morning and removes the rain and sea fog, then a second front on Wednesday morning with high pressure building in behind it. The GFS has a cold front approach the region and lose its steam as it moves southeastward. It does move off the coast by Monday night, but since it is much weaker, winds remain more easterly and allows the moisture to remain in place. This would mean rain chances would linger through at least Tuesday. The high pressure in the GFS pushes eastward more quickly as well which would return rain chances by Wednesday night as moist, onshore flow is reintroduced. Leaned more towards the GFS solution for now and kept PoPs in throughout the day on Wednesday.

There is model consensus on dew points falling back into the low 50s by Monday night/Tuesday morning, so this would mark the end of the period of sea fog. Until then, once the sea fog develops, it will continue to persist and bring low visibilities for coastal locations especially in the overnight hours. 26

MARINE .

Onshore flow expected to persist through the weekend and into early next week. The continuous warm air advection has been steadily increasing dew points over the waters. Nearshore dew points will reach the low 60s in the late morning/early afternoon today while water temperatures are still in the 50s. As a result, sea fog will develop and will likely last into early next week. A weak cold front will approach the coast on Thursday, but model guidance indicates that it will not be close enough to the coast to dampen the impacts of the fog. The front will then push back to the north on Friday allowing for the onshore flow to prevail and subsequently the sea fog as well. 26

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

College Station (CLL) 52 62 53 63 56 / 10 50 80 30 30 Houston (IAH) 59 70 57 71 62 / 30 40 50 30 20 Galveston (GLS) 61 68 59 65 60 / 30 50 30 20 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

TX . None. GM . None.



SHORT TERM . 43 LONG TERM . 26 AVIATION . Luchs MARINE . 26


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LUIT2 4 mi55 min S 6 G 9.9 64°F 55°F1017.8 hPa
FPST2 9 mi55 min SSE 6 G 7 58°F 1017.3 hPa
GRRT2 24 mi55 min SW 7 G 8.9 63°F 57°F1017.9 hPa
GTOT2 28 mi55 min S 9.9 G 14 65°F 52°F1018.1 hPa
SGNT2 30 mi55 min SSE 6 G 8 61°F 57°F1017.9 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 33 mi55 min S 13 G 14 60°F 52°F1017.2 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 34 mi55 min SSW 8 G 9.9 66°F 51°F1017.7 hPa
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 42 mi39 min S 9.7 G 14 61°F 57°F1018 hPa
EMAT2 45 mi55 min SSE 6 G 8 65°F 59°F1017.6 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 46 mi55 min S 4.1 G 7 65°F 53°F1018.1 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 48 mi55 min SSW 7 G 12 71°F 57°F1017.3 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 48 mi55 min SSW 6 G 8.9 61°F 55°F1018.6 hPa

Wind History for USCG Freeport, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Angleton / Lake Jackson, Brazoria County Airport, TX16 mi56 minS 1210.00 miOvercast74°F66°F76%1018.1 hPa
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX23 mi57 minS 1310.00 miOvercast65°F61°F87%1018.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLBX

Wind History from LBX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S10S12S13S14S11S13S9S9S6S8S9S9S11S8S9S5S6S6S5CalmS7S11S12
1 day agoN9NE10NE65E9SE7SE7S4SW4SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE6S11
2 days agoS14S16S11
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S8S7S4E4SE3CalmE3CalmN3N3CalmN3N5N11N9NE5N4NE7NE8NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Christmas Point, Christmas Bay, Texas
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Christmas Point
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Wed -- 05:07 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:50 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:32 AM CST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:41 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:17 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:59 PM CST     0.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:37 PM CST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Point, West Bay, Texas
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Alligator Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:07 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:50 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:34 AM CST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:41 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:16 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:06 PM CST     0.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:39 PM CST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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