Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pointe a la Hache, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:04PM Sunday December 15, 2019 7:19 AM CST (13:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:43PMMoonset 10:53AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ552 Expires:201912160115;;821563 Fzus54 Klix 151256 Aaa Cwflix Coastal Waters Forecast...updated National Weather Service New Orleans La 656 Am Cst Sun Dec 15 2019 Pascagoula To Atchafalaya River Out To 60 Mile Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest Ten Percent Of The Waves. Gmz550-552-160115- Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 656 Am Cst Sun Dec 15 2019
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west after midnight, then becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms until early morning. Showers through the night.
Tuesday..North winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet building to 5 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning.
Tuesday night..North winds 20 to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Wednesday..North winds 25 to 30 knots easing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 656 Am Cst Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis..Onshore flow to prevail through much of Monday ahead of approaching cold front. Strong cold front moves off the coast late Monday night and pushes into the central gulf Tueasday morning. Cold high pressure builds in its wake through Wednesday, then slides east and moderates Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pointe a la Hache, LA
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location: 29.43, -89.98     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 151252 AAA AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 652 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

UPDATE. Conditions appear to have improved across the area enough to cancel the Dense Fog Advisory. There still may be a patch or two, particularly along the Pearl River, but this should be short-lived and lifted by 8 am or so. Updated zones and marine products to remove headlines. No other changes at this time. Out shortly. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 336 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019/

SHORT TERM . The main concern in the short-term is the dense sea fog currently blanketing much of the area this morning. As winds become increasingly more onshore oriented and deeper, fog should lift and disperse rather quickly in the mid-morning. Will maintain status quo on Dense Fog Advisory at this time. Temperatures should have no problem warming into the 70s as clouds break and allow some sunshine and warm air advection. Fog formation tonight, though likely, may not be as extensive in coverage or density if dewpoints continue to rise through the night to impart more of a low cloud deck. This will have to be monitored and assessed more closely this evening but overnight lows should be warmer than this morning, possibly warming through the night. Meanwhile, cyclogenesis gets underway in west Texas tonight with increasing baroclincity inducing a warm front along the I-20 corridor later today into tonight. This will firmly place the local forecast area in the warm sector with instability and moisture depth steadily increasing throughout the day Monday. A review of SREF thunderstorm parameters and local CHAP guidance strongly indicating severe thunderstorm potential in the late afternoon and early evening hours Monday, generally in the 3 pm to 9 pm window, depending on what model is used. The NAM timing is 1-2 hours faster than the GFS thermodynamics, but focused around the 17/00Z timeframe, +/- 1 to 2 hours. SREF guidance showing discrete supercellular nature ahead of frontal QLCS in the late afternoon hours during peak heating and greater instability. When assessed in CHAP, this is yielding a EF2-3 tornado potential, gusts 60-70 mph, and marble to half dollar hail. Areally, it appears this would favor SW MS, upper Florida Parishes to about the Pearl River. Further south, though severe potential can not be ruled out, may have to consider stable marine layer influences to cut into instability along with loss of daytime heating after sunset farther east when front arrives into coastal LA and MS. At this time, SPC is upgrading this area to ENHANCED for the northshore parishes and southern Mississippi counties away from the coast, and SLIGHT for the coastal and south shore parishes/counties.

LONG TERM . Strong cold air advection pushes cold front through much of the area by midnight Monday night, and clearly east of the MS coast and coastal waters by daybreak Tuesday. Daytime highs will likely occur around midnight or during the overnight, then cooling considerably throughout the day with some more interior locations struggling to stay in or reach the 50s. Combined with moderate and gusty NW winds, wind chills will make it feel like a raw day. Precipitation ends pretty early Tuesday to preclude any considerations for winter weather. Tuesday night lows fall into light freeze for interior areas away from water influences, and generally mid 30s elsewhere for a cold night under clear skies. Wednesday is expected to be a sunny day but with cold air advection still underway, temperatures only warm into the 50s but winds should slacken by later in the day, leading to a radiationally cold night. Interior lows once again in light freeze territory for Thursday morning and mid 30s south of the tidal lakes. High pressure shallows out and moderates during the day Thursday to onset a gradual warming trend into Friday. GFS is showing another frontal system moving through late Friday. ECMWF is slightly different in showing cold pool impulse digging into base of amplifying trough Friday night but lacking precipitation pattern typical of cold frontal passage. Any attendant moisture is shown diverging upon arrival. At this time, will show lower end PoPs but maintaining a stretch of cold days into the weekend.

AVIATION . IFR conditions in dense fog this morning likely to lift around 15Z, becoming VFR by 18Z. Veering winds to S-SE will be steadily increasing moisture in the column to allow for some fog formation once again generally after 03Z, but lower confidence on density as marine layer low cloud deck may result, or initially start as fog and lift to a low ceiling with warm air advection well above the nearby water temperatures. Still beyond the valid TAF timeframe, the area will be under a SLIGHT to ENHANCED risk for severe thunderstorms that may impact the terminals generally in the 16/21Z to 17/03Z timeframe, to be indicated in subsequent TAF issuances later today/tonight.

MARINE . Slack winds this morning will allow sea fog to linger near shore but should be able to lift and dissipate later this morning as winds continue to veer to solid onshore orientation. Moderate onshore flow to be maintained into Monday ahead of approaching strong cold front. This front should move into the coastal waters west of the MS River by midnight Monday night and before daybreak Tuesday in the MS coastal waters. Cold high pressure building into the gulf should place the area in solid Small Craft Advisory criteria from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.

DECISION SUPPORT . DSS code: Yellow Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Dense Fog Advisory Forecast Support for the City of New Orleans Assessing severe thunderstorm potential for Monday afternoon/evening. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or excessive rain. Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 74 61 75 44 / 10 40 90 100 BTR 78 63 78 43 / 10 40 80 90 ASD 76 58 78 45 / 0 30 60 90 MSY 76 64 78 49 / 0 30 50 90 GPT 71 61 73 48 / 0 20 50 90 PQL 75 60 77 48 / 10 20 40 80

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 11 mi50 min SSE 2.9 G 6 63°F
KXPY 24 mi25 min SE 7 66°F 66°F
KDLP 31 mi25 min SSE 8.9 G 14 66°F 63°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 34 mi50 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 54°F 58°F1015.2 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 34 mi50 min E 5.1 G 6 57°F 59°F1015.7 hPa
CARL1 36 mi50 min 49°F
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 38 mi31 min S 12 G 13 69°F 2 ft1016.1 hPa63°F
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 42 mi50 min Calm G 5.1 56°F 59°F1014.5 hPa
PILL1 42 mi50 min SSE 5.1 G 6 61°F 49°F1015.8 hPa
PSTL1 - 8760922 - Pilot's East, SW Pass, LA 46 mi50 min SSE 6 G 11
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA 47 mi80 min 15 G 15
SPLL1 - South Timbalier Block 52, LA / CSI06 47 mi80 min SSE 12 G 13 73°F

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galliano, South Lafourche Airport, LA15 mi25 minESE 410.00 miFair62°F59°F94%1015.2 hPa
Port Fourchon, LA24 mi45 minSE 610.00 miFair66°F66°F100%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGAO

Wind History from GAO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW6SW4S4E4E3E3E4SE3E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4
1 day agoNE4N5NE5NE4N4N4N6N7N3CalmN7N8N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Manilla
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:46 AM CST     1.14 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:46 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:53 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:43 PM CST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:03 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:42 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.11.110.90.80.60.40.2-0-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-00.20.40.60.70.9

Tide / Current Tables for Independence Island, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Independence Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:43 AM CST     1.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:46 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:52 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:29 PM CST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:03 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:42 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1110.90.80.60.40.20-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.10.30.40.60.70.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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