Wednesday, August12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pointe a la Hache, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:45PM Wednesday August 12, 2020 7:00 PM CDT (00:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:34AMMoonset 2:21PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ552 Expires:202008131015;;352975 Fzus54 Klix 122109 Aaa Cwflix Coastal Waters Forecast...updated National Weather Service New Orleans La Issued By National Weather Service Mobile Al 409 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 12 2020 Pascagoula To Atchafalaya River Out To 60 Mile Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest Ten Percent Of The Waves. Gmz550-552-131015- Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 409 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 12 2020
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..West winds near 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 409 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 12 2020
Synopsis..Weak high pressure will prevail across the northeastern gulf of mexico through the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pointe a la Hache, LA
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location: 29.43, -89.98     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 122117 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL 417 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

SHORT TERM. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms are primarily focused across the southern and eastern portions of the area, including the coastal Mississippi zones along a seabreeze pushing inland. The wet microburst potential is moderate, so a few of the stronger thunderstorms still have the capability of producing localized wind gusts up to 40 mph into early evening. Convection will diminish by mid evening across the entire area, although there could be a lingering light rain shower or two into late evening. Isolated to low-end scattered convection will again be possible late tonight into early Thursday morning along the coastal sections of southeast Louisiana and southeast Mississippi.

The synoptic pattern changes slightly as the axis of an upper shortwave over the area tonight shifts eastward over Alabama by midnight Thursday, while weak upper ridging builds in from the west. Despite this pattern change, there will be ample instability for convection again on Thursday despite the lack of a forcing mechanism as the trough is likely not to have much of an influence. However, will advertise scattered to numerous coverage of storms for tomorrow afternoon mainly due to decreasing stability. The deep layer steering flow will be very light and precipitable waters will be at or above 2". Therefore, any stronger storms that develop will contain strong, gusty winds and the potential for locally heavy rainfall due to the slow movement of storms. Heat indices will climb to 104-107 degrees across the region on Thursday. This is just shy of heat advisory criteria (108 degrees) but will continue to monitor. /22

LONG TERM. For the long term period (this Friday through next Tuesday), the local area will generally be under an area of upper level weakness as a ridge maintains its hold aloft over the southwestern CONUS and an upper level trough persists over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys down through Mississippi and Alabama. However, by early next week the upper trough to the east will begin to build back west over Louisiana and eventually over the ARKLATEX region as well. At the surface, high pressure will largely be maintained over the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. Meanwhile, a surface boundary will be draped over the ARKLATEX and Tennessee Valley regions through the day Friday. By Saturday, this boundary will progress back north slightly, becoming a cold front over southern Missouri, Kentucky, and down into North Carolina. This front will then begin to be pushed southeast by another cold front to the northwest over the upper Mississippi Valley. The first cold front will progress over the east coast of the Carolinas, southern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle by early Monday. The second cold front is then expected to make its way over the ARKLATEX and Tennessee Valley regions during this time, eventually moving over the northern Gulf coast through the day Tuesday.

As for sensible weather, a diurnal pattern will continue through at least the weekend. MLCAPE values will be right around 1000 J/kg through Saturday, with an increase in instability to between 1000- 2500 J/kg for Sunday through Tuesday afternoons. Thus, expecting scattered showers and storms to begin during the late night/early morning hours over the Gulf waters and then transition over land through the day. Showers and storms will dwindle to be fairly isolated through the evening. In general, PWATs will range between 1.7-2.0 inches for the local area through Monday, with the highest values expected area-wide on Friday. PWATs will then decrease to be around 1.4 inches over the inland areas and around 1.8-2.0 inches near the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts on Tuesday. This is due to drier air being brought in from the north with cold frontal passage. At this time, went with likely PoPs for Friday and Saturday afternoons because of higher deep layer moisture and southwest to westerly wind flow. Also, capped PoPs at chance for Sunday through Tuesday afternoons due to declining PWATs, a shift to more northwesterly flow, as well as model uncertainty.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday (due to higher cloud cover and PoPs), then temperatures will increase to generally be in the lower to mid 90s through the weekend. Highs will slightly decrease to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s once again by Tuesday. Low temperatures will mainly be in the lower to upper 70s through Sunday night, with areas right along the Louisiana coast near 80 degrees. Lows Monday and Tuesday nights will then be in the lower to mid 70s for most inland areas, with areas right along the Louisiana coast in the upper 70s; although, a few spots over far southwest Mississippi could see lows in the upper 60s. /26

AVIATION. Not much of a change to the aviation forecast this afternoon as ongoing scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon will gradually diminish into early evening. VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast, except near thunderstorms when visibilities and ceilings could drop to MVFR or IFR criteria. Wind gusts of 15-25 knots are possible near thunderstorms. /22

MARINE. Shower and thunderstorm activity has waned over the coastal waters this afternoon and generally light winds and seas are expected outside of any convection. Winds will continue to be light as high pressure remains over the coastal waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 76 90 75 89 / 40 60 20 60 BTR 77 94 77 91 / 30 60 20 60 ASD 76 93 76 91 / 30 60 20 70 MSY 78 92 79 91 / 30 60 20 60 GPT 78 89 77 88 / 30 60 30 70 PQL 75 92 75 90 / 30 60 40 70

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 11 mi43 min 4.1 G 7 91°F
KXPY 24 mi21 min S 2.9 88°F 73°F
KDLP 31 mi26 min SSW 5.1 84°F 75°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 34 mi43 min SSE 4.1 G 4.1 80°F 89°F1015.1 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 34 mi43 min SW 6 G 7 85°F 91°F1015.5 hPa
CARL1 36 mi43 min 88°F
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 42 mi43 min SSW 1.9 G 5.1 83°F 89°F1014.4 hPa
PILL1 42 mi43 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 86°F 88°F1015.3 hPa
PSTL1 - 8760922 - Pilot's East, SW Pass, LA 46 mi43 min SSW 4.1 G 6
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA 47 mi61 min 7 G 7

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galliano, South Lafourche Airport, LA15 mi64 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F73°F79%1015.2 hPa
Port Fourchon, LA24 mi61 minSSE 610.00 miFair88°F73°F62%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGAO

Wind History from GAO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S3CalmSE4W4E3CalmNW4N6NW3E3S5S7NE6NW5W4Calm
1 day agoS5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S7S8SW8
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3S4CalmSW5S5S8SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Manilla
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:33 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:26 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:59 AM CDT     1.05 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:21 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:36 PM CDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.80.80.9111.11110.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.30.30.30.30.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Independence Island, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Independence Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:33 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:26 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:56 AM CDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:20 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:22 PM CDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.