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Marine Weather and Tides Flagler Beach, FL Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:53AM

Sunset 7:54PM

Sunday April 18, 2021 5:35 PM EDT (21:35 UTC)

Moonrise 10:19AM

Moonset 12:01AM

Illumination 44%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flagler Beach, FL

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Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 182113 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 513 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING .

. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH TONIGHT .

NEAR TERM [Through Monday].

Tonight, the frontal boundary has nudged into NE FL this afternoon with earlier rounds of showers and a few intense storms near Flagler Beach having moved well offshore into the Atlantic waters. The front's position is partly due to a meso high that formed behind the initial round of storms over NE FL areas late this morning with light cyclonic flow observed from surface observations with light SE winds near Ocala and from the west at Gainesville. This meso high has helped deter stronger storm development until later this afternoon over much of NE FL with light to moderate showers now streaming east along I-10 into jacksonville. But, strong mid level flow (effective bulk shear of 45 knots) over NE FL downstream of a short wave trough pivoting east from the southern plains into the lower MS Valley along with upper level jet stream diffluence in the vicinity of the Right rear quadrant will position over the NE Gulf of Mexico into NE FL and enhance lift over northern FL through this evening. These features will allow additional waves of convection to stream ENE from the Gulf of Mexico along and just north of the frontal boundary as it sinks southward back into central FL through tonight.

For storm potential, ML CAPE levels will increase to at least 1000 J/kg over north central FL areas generally along and south of a line from Gainesville to St Augustine. The rest of NE FL will See less of a threat with some potential for strong storms ML CAPE values under 500 J/kg and elevated MU CAPE values under 300 J/kg yielding mainly a small hail and heavy rain threat with strong damaging winds more likely the main hazard farther south over north central FL areas. Given strong effective shear that could allow persistent updrafts and the proximity of the frontal boundary, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out over north central FL where higher dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will be.

Also, given the persistent moist airmass near the front with PWAT values well above the 90th percentile at over 1.6 inches from the 12Z JAX morning sounding and RH values in the low and mid levels near 90 percent, convection will again carry highly efficient rainfall rates late today into tonight similar to yesterday. This will allow an additional swath of widespread 1-2 inch totals over areas south of I-10 for NE FL with locally heavier amounts on top of areas that have received up to 3-5 inches over the past 48 hours from Ocala to Palm Coast while at least 1-3 inches have fallen over all of NE FL in that same window. Therefore, isolated flash flooding will remain a concern in these areas that have seen the highest recent rainfall totals this weekend in addition to urban centers with poor runoff.

Wet conditions and cloudy overcast skies will persist overnight with light westerly winds and near seasonal overnight temps in the low 60s over NE FL and the upper 50s over SE GA will be common overnight.

Monday, the frontal boundary over central FLorida will slide farther southward into south FL. Scattered to numerous showers and a few storms are expected with drier conditions over SE GA under mostly sunny skies. Winds will shift to the NW around 10-15 mph as weak high pressure attempts to build west of the region.

SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night].

Monday night, the frontal boundary will be stalling near lake Okeechobee as the shortwave trough exits east into the Atlantic. This feature will be replaced by an upstream southern stream shortwave trough moving east from TX that will ride through the base of a northern stream trough swinging from the northern plains into the Mid MS Valley on Tuesday. These features aloft will help develop another wave of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico that will travel NE along the frontal boundary over north central FL and portions of NE FL south of Jacksonville yielding another round of showers and a few storms before the front slides east into the Atlantic waters as another cold front pushes into the southeast US. Another inch of rain could fall over mostly north central FL areas. The secondary cold front will press east through the area on Wednesday with strong high pressure building from the northwest. This will usher in cooler and much drier conditions with breezy NW winds through Wednesday night.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal with highs in the 70s with near normal for lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s through Tuesday night, then warm to near normal temperatures on Wednesday around 80 degrees as skies become sunny.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday].

Strong high pressure will build in closer to the region from the NW on Thursday and then move north of the region on Friday with continued dry conditions. The high will move NE of the region on Saturday with winds becoming southerly as a warm front lifts north into the Gulf coast with showers pushing into the area from the west. Sunday, timing differences between models on how quickly a developing low pressure and trailing cold front moves through the region yield lower confidence in any shower coverage for the end of next weekend, so have kept scattered pops for now.

Initially cooler temperatures late this week will be warming to above seasonal values next weekend.

AVIATION. [Through 18Z Monday]

Bouts of scattered showers will move through the region until later this afternoon and evening, where another bout of thunderstorms and heavier rains is expected to move through across NE Florida, south of the frontal boundary. Ceilings can be expected to drop to IFR levels during this period with cloud heights remaining low for Florida sites into Monday morning.

MARINE.

Light offshore flow will remain over the water with no headlines expected through Monday. Winds will become onshore on Tuesday as low pressure tracks along frontal boundary south of the waters with main impacts still the showers and embedded storms with heavy rainfall at times. A secondary frontal passage on Wednesday will bring a surge of northerly winds around 20 knots Wednesday Night and early Thursday that may lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today for NE FL and SE GA Beaches today. Moderate risk on Monday for NE FL beaches with a low risk for SE GA beaches.

FIRE WEATHER.

Low daytime dispersion values will continue due to light surface and transport winds through Tuesday for Northeast Florida with higher dispersions likely over southeast Georgia areas on Monday.

HYDROLOGY.

Around 3-6 inch rainfall totals are noted across Marion, Putnam, and Flagler counties with only minimal impacts due to antecedent drier conditions. Another 1-2 inches could fall through late tonight, but a Flood watch is not anticipated as there's been a a break in rainfall south of I-10 since late this morning. Not as much rainfall expected on Monday as the axis of best rainfall slips southward into central FLorida with more rain possible on Tuesday as the frontal boundary works north back towards north central FL as a new low tracks NE along the boundary from the Gulf of Mexico. Minor River flooding may still be possible along the upper Santa Fe Basin, but greatest flooding impacts will continue to be the metro areas mainly south of Jacksonville through Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 56 77 52 78 54 / 20 0 10 20 10 SSI 61 78 61 75 61 / 70 10 20 30 10 JAX 61 79 58 74 59 / 100 30 30 30 20 SGJ 63 75 61 72 62 / 100 60 50 50 20 GNV 61 76 56 76 58 / 100 50 50 50 20 OCF 64 77 60 77 61 / 100 80 60 70 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL	13 mi	50 min	WNW 1.9	76°F			1012 hPa	67°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL	27 mi	35 min	E 2.9 G 4.1	70°F	68°F		1011.8 hPa (-0.9)	67°F
41117	36 mi	39 min			69°F	1 ft

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL	12 mi	45 min	N 0	7.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	77°F	66°F	69%	1011.2 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL	21 mi	42 min	Var 4	10.00 mi	Overcast	77°F	65°F	66%	1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KXFL

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Tide / Current Tables for Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida

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Tide / Current Tables for Ormond Beach, Halifax River, Florida

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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